Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?

Abstract

This paper reexamines the existence of a long-run relationship between wages and unemployment in the U.K., with data over the period 1860-1913 used by A.W. Phillips to derive the well-known Phillips Curve. Using Johansen's maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, a long-run inverse relationship is indeed depicted between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the main impact of deviations from this long-run equilibrium is on the unemployment rate rather than the rate of inflation.Phillips Curve; long-run equilibrium; cointegration