Angert

Anthes

Ashcroft

Ashton

Beever

Bennie

Blois

Bradbury

Buckley

Calladine

Chen

Cowley

Davies

De Frenne

Dennis

Dobrowski

Engler

Gillingham

Gutiérrez

Hampe

Hannah

Hodgson

Kearney

Larsen

Lenoir

Lewis

Marchant

McInerny

Melles

Menéndez

Merrill

Oliver

Pateman

Pearman

Pollard

Randin

Rapacciuolo

Smith

Suggitt

Thomas

Tingley

Tomanek

Turlure

Venables

Warren

Wethey

Wood

Jenny A. Hodgson

Jonathan J. Bennie

Gemma Dale

Natalie Longley

Robert J. Wilson

Chris D. Thomas

Crossref

Ecography

Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly <i>Plebejus argus</i>
 at the northern edge of its range


                    Species are often observed to occur in restricted patches of particularly warm microclimate at their high latitude/altitude geographic range margin. In these areas, global warming is expected to cause small‐scale expansion of the occupied area, but most previous studies of range expansion have used very coarse scale data. Using high resolution microclimate models together with detailed field surveys, we tested whether the butterfly
                    Plebejus argus
                    , occurring on limestone grassland in north Wales, was responding as might be expected due to climate change in the last 30–40 yr. The abundance of adult
                    Plebejus argus
                    at 100 m resolution in 2011 was strongly affected by elevation and near‐ground temperatures in May. A statistical model including microclimate, fitted to 2011 data, was successful (67% correct) at hindcasting the occurrence of
                    Plebejus argus
                    in 1983 when the average May air temperature was 1.4°C cooler. However, the model was less accurate at hindcasting occurrences in 1972 (50% correct). Given the distribution of micro‐sites in this landscape, we predict that further warming of approximately 1°C would make the majority of sites highly microclimatically suitable for this species. There are a growing number of long‐term studies of range change, and investigations into the mechanisms driving them, but still surprisingly few that explicitly make and test predictions with independent data. Our tests are a valuable example of how accurate predictions of distribution change can be, but also of the inevitable uncertainties. Improved understanding of how well models predict will be very important to plan robust climate change adaptation measures.
                  </jats:p

Hodgson, Jenny A

Bennie, Jonathan J

Dale, Gemma

Longley, Natalie

Wilson, Robert J

Thomas, Chris D

University of Liverpool Repository

Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly <i>Plebejus argus</i> at the northern edge of its range

Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly Plebejus argus at the northern edge of its range

Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly Plebejus argus at the northern edge of its range

Abstract

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Crossref

University of Liverpool Repository