Efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccines: individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 data.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 as a vaccine for malaria is being tested in a phase 3 clinical trial. Early results show significant, albeit partial, protection against clinical malaria and severe malaria. To ascertain variations in vaccine efficacy according to covariates such as transmission intensity, choice of adjuvant, age at vaccination, and bednet use, we did an individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 clinical data. METHODS: We analysed data from 11 different sites in Africa, including 4453 participants. We measured heterogeneity in vaccine efficacy by estimating the interactions between covariates and vaccination in pooled multivariable Cox regression and Poisson regression analyses. Endpoints for measurement of vaccine efficacy were infection, clinical malaria, severe malaria, and death. We defined transmission intensity levels according to the estimated local parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PrP₂₋₁₀), ranging from 5% to 80%. Choice of adjuvant was either AS01 or AS02. FINDINGS: Vaccine efficacy against all episodes of clinical malaria varied by transmission intensity (p=0·001). At low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%) vaccine efficacy was 60% (95% CI 54 to 67), at moderate transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 20%) it was 41% (21 to 57), and at high transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 70%) the efficacy was 4% (-10 to 22). Vaccine efficacy also varied by adjuvant choice (p<0·0001)--eg, at low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%), efficacy varied from 60% (95% CI 54 to 67) for AS01 to 47% (14 to 75) for AS02. Variations in efficacy by age at vaccination were of borderline significance (p=0·038), and bednet use and sex were not significant covariates. Vaccine efficacy (pooled across adjuvant choice and transmission intensity) varied significantly (p<0·0001) according to time since vaccination, from 36% efficacy (95% CI 24 to 45) at time of vaccination to 0% (-38 to 38) after 3 years. INTERPRETATION: Vaccine efficacy against clinical disease was of limited duration and was not detectable 3 years after vaccination. Furthermore, efficacy fell with increasing transmission intensity. Outcomes after vaccination cannot be gauged accurately on the basis of one pooled efficacy figure. However, predictions of public-health outcomes of vaccination will need to take account of variations in efficacy by transmission intensity and by time since vaccination. FUNDING: Medical Research Council (UK); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modelling Initiative; Wellcome Trust

Evaluation of TypeSeq, a Novel High-Throughput, Low-Cost, Next-Generation Sequencing-Based Assay for Detection of 51 Human Papillomavirus Genotypes.

BackgroundHuman papillomaviruses (HPV) cause over 500 000 cervical cancers each year, most of which occur in low-resource settings. Human papillomavirus genotyping is important to study natural history and vaccine efficacy. We evaluated TypeSeq, a novel, next-generation, sequencing-based assay that detects 51 HPV genotypes, in 2 large international epidemiologic studies.MethodsTypeSeq was evaluated in 2804 cervical specimens from the Study to Understand Cervical Cancer Endpoints and Early Determinants (SUCCEED) and in 2357 specimens from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT). Positive agreement and risks of precancer for individual genotypes were calculated for TypeSeq in comparison to Linear Array (SUCCEED). In CVT, positive agreement and vaccine efficacy were calculated for TypeSeq and SPF10-LiPA.ResultsWe observed high overall and positive agreement for most genotypes between TypeSeq and Linear Array in SUCCEED and SPF10-LiPA in CVT. There was no significant difference in risk of precancer between TypeSeq and Linear Array in SUCCEED or in estimates of vaccine efficacy between TypeSeq and SPF10-LiPA in CVT.ConclusionsThe agreement of TypeSeq with Linear Array and SPF10-LiPA, 2 well established standards for HPV genotyping, demonstrates its high accuracy. TypeSeq provides high-throughput, affordable HPV genotyping for world-wide studies of cervical precancer risk and of HPV vaccine efficacy

Acellular pertussis vaccine efficacy: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Recent studies indicate an increased incidence of pertussis disease in recent years. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the acellular vaccine for children (as a replacement of current whole cell vaccine in the Expanded Program on Immunization) and for high-risk adults in Iran through updating current best available evidence. Methods: We performed a systematic literature review in relevant databases we focused on previously published systematic reviews to select those that address our questions. The AMSTAR (assessing the methodological quality of systematic reviews) tool was used for screening available reviews. Then search in databases was done until Feb 2014 to update the evidence. We pooled results using meta-analysis methods by Stata statistical package. Results: Eleven systematic review articles were included in the initial evaluation. In the end, two systematic reviews on acellular vaccine booster doses and the acellular vaccine in children were selected as the baseline evidence. In the update phase, new clinical trials were screened, and the results were updated. Overall pooled estimate of relative efficacy of acellular to whole cell was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.55-0.81) for children immunization Pooled estimates for the efficacy of acellular versus placebo were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60-0.80). Overall pooled estimate of efficacy of booster dose of acellular was 0.87(95% CI, 0.85-0.88) compared to placebo. In addition pooled estimate of acellular vaccine efficacy based on response to antigen was 0.78(95% CI, 0.64-0.93) in highrisk group. Conclusion: The results show higher performance and safety of the acellular vaccine in the prevention of pertussis in children versus the whole cell vaccine. Moreover, the efficacy of the acellular vaccine in high-risk adult groups is acceptable. This study provides evidence in favor of the introduction of an acellular vaccine to the national program of immunization. Studies on cost effectiveness and aspects of policy analysis are recommended

Proportional hazards models with continuous marks

For time-to-event data with finitely many competing risks, the proportional hazards model has been a popular tool for relating the cause-specific outcomes to covariates [Prentice et al. Biometrics 34 (1978) 541--554]. This article studies an extension of this approach to allow a continuum of competing risks, in which the cause of failure is replaced by a continuous mark only observed at the failure time. We develop inference for the proportional hazards model in which the regression parameters depend nonparametrically on the mark and the baseline hazard depends nonparametrically on both time and mark. This work is motivated by the need to assess HIV vaccine efficacy, while taking into account the genetic divergence of infecting HIV viruses in trial participants from the HIV strain that is contained in the vaccine, and adjusting for covariate effects. Mark-specific vaccine efficacy is expressed in terms of one of the regression functions in the mark-specific proportional hazards model. The new approach is evaluated in simulations and applied to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS554 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Envelope Determinants of Equine Lentiviral Vaccine Protection

Lentiviral envelope (Env) antigenic variation and associated immune evasion present major obstacles to vaccine development. The concept that Env is a critical determinant for vaccine efficacy is well accepted, however defined correlates of protection associated with Env variation have yet to be determined. We reported an attenuated equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) vaccine study that directly examined the effect of lentiviral Env sequence variation on vaccine efficacy. The study identified a significant, inverse, linear correlation between vaccine efficacy and increasing divergence of the challenge virus Env gp90 protein compared to the vaccine virus gp90. The report demonstrated approximately 100% protection of immunized ponies from disease after challenge by virus with a homologous gp90 (EV0), and roughly 40% protection against challenge by virus (EV13) with a gp90 13% divergent from the vaccine strain. In the current study we examine whether the protection observed when challenging with the EV0 strain could be conferred to animals via chimeric challenge viruses between the EV0 and EV13 strains, allowing for mapping of protection to specific Env sequences. Viruses containing the EV13 proviral backbone and selected domains of the EV0 gp90 were constructed and in vitro and in vivo infectivity examined. Vaccine efficacy studies indicated that homology between the vaccine strain gp90 and the N-terminus of the challenge strain gp90 was capable of inducing immunity that resulted in significantly lower levels of post-challenge virus and significantly delayed the onset of disease. However, a homologous N-terminal region alone inserted in the EV13 backbone could not impart the 100% protection observed with the EV0 strain. Data presented here denote the complicated and potentially contradictory relationship between in vitro virulence and in vivo pathogenicity. The study highlights the importance of structural conformation for immunogens and emphasizes the need for antibody binding, not neutralizing, assays that correlate with vaccine protection. © 2013 Craigo et al

The effect of distance on observed mortality, childhood pneumonia and vaccine efficacy in rural Gambia.

We investigated whether straight-line distance from residential compounds to healthcare facilities influenced mortality, the incidence of pneumonia and vaccine efficacy against pneumonia in rural Gambia. Clinical surveillance for pneumonia was conducted on 6938 children living in the catchment areas of the two largest healthcare facilities. Deaths were monitored by three-monthly home visits. Children living >5 km from the two largest healthcare facilities had a 2·78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·74-4·43] times higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to children living within 2 km of these facilities. The observed rate of clinical and radiological pneumonia was lower in children living >5 km from these facilities compared to those living within 2 km [rate ratios 0·65 (95% CI 0·57-0·73) and 0·74 (95% CI 0·55-0·98), respectively]. There was no association between distance and estimated pneumococcal vaccine efficacy. Geographical access to healthcare services is an important determinant of survival and pneumonia in children in rural Gambia

Real-time Investigation of Measles Epidemics with Estimate of Vaccine Efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance

Genetic Diversity and Protective Efficacy of the RTS,S/AS01 Malaria Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum and has partial protective efficacy against clinical and severe malaria disease in infants and children. We investigated whether the vaccine efficacy was specific to certain parasite genotypes at the circumsporozoite protein locus. METHODS: We used polymerase chain reaction-based next-generation sequencing of DNA extracted from samples from 4985 participants to survey circumsporozoite protein polymorphisms. We evaluated the effect that polymorphic positions and haplotypic regions within the circumsporozoite protein had on vaccine efficacy against first episodes of clinical malaria within 1 year after vaccination. RESULTS: In the per-protocol group of 4577 RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated participants and 2335 control-vaccinated participants who were 5 to 17 months of age, the 1-year cumulative vaccine efficacy was 50.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.6 to 62.3) against clinical malaria in which parasites matched the vaccine in the entire circumsporozoite protein C-terminal (139 infections), as compared with 33.4% (95% CI, 29.3 to 37.2) against mismatched malaria (1951 infections) (P=0.04 for differential vaccine efficacy). The vaccine efficacy based on the hazard ratio was 62.7% (95% CI, 51.6 to 71.3) against matched infections versus 54.2% (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.1) against mismatched infections (P=0.06). In the group of infants 6 to 12 weeks of age, there was no evidence of differential allele-specific vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that among children 5 to 17 months of age, the RTS,S vaccine has greater activity against malaria parasites with the matched circumsporozoite protein allele than against mismatched malaria. The overall vaccine efficacy in this age category will depend on the proportion of matched alleles in the local parasite population; in this trial, less than 10% of parasites had matched alleles. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)