A multivariate semiparametric Bayesian spatial modeling framework for hurricane surface wind fields

Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of coastal areas. Numerical ocean models are essential for creating storm surge forecasts for coastal areas. These models are driven primarily by the surface wind forcings. Currently, the gridded wind fields used by ocean models are specified by deterministic formulas that are based on the central pressure and location of the storm center. While these equations incorporate important physical knowledge about the structure of hurricane surface wind fields, they cannot always capture the asymmetric and dynamic nature of a hurricane. A new Bayesian multivariate spatial statistical modeling framework is introduced combining data with physical knowledge about the wind fields to improve the estimation of the wind vectors. Many spatial models assume the data follow a Gaussian distribution. However, this may be overly-restrictive for wind fields data which often display erratic behavior, such as sudden changes in time or space. In this paper we develop a semiparametric multivariate spatial model for these data. Our model builds on the stick-breaking prior, which is frequently used in Bayesian modeling to capture uncertainty in the parametric form of an outcome. The stick-breaking prior is extended to the spatial setting by assigning each location a different, unknown distribution, and smoothing the distributions in space with a series of kernel functions. This semiparametric spatial model is shown to improve prediction compared to usual Bayesian Kriging methods for the wind field of Hurricane Ivan.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS108 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Workbook for Sociology in the Secondary School

After completing a survey of the teaching of sociology in the secondary schools I find that many teachers feel there is a need for the course on this level. Those who answered the survey questionnaire reveal that sociology is valuable because it helps the student to understand his personal problems and realise something of the problems of society. In practically all the schools contributing to the survey, sociology is a very popular course with the student because it lends discussions that appeal to his personal interests, the survey also reveals a need for textbooks, workbooks, reference material and other mechanical aids to help in presenting the subject

An evaluation method for multiview surface reconstruction algorithms

We propose a new method...

Jesse James Syndrome, a Scholarly Review of Serving Gifted Students in Rural Settings

Serving Gifted Students in Rural Settings is a superb set of essays that would help practitioners in rural settings develop or enhance services for gifted students. The authors are specialists in Rural Studies, Counseling, and Gifted Education. Dr. Tamra Stambaugh is an Assistant Research Professor for Special Education and the Executive of Programs for Talented Youth at Vanderbilt University. Dr. Susannah M. Wood is an associate professor at the University of Iowa in the Department of Rehabilitation and Counselor Education. The talent of the two editors created this manual for practitioners that brings much-needed guidance for building and enhancing programs to meet the needs of gifted rural students

Introduction to Rural Educational Leadership

Change generally emerges when the status quo no longer serves most people. It is at that point that different ideas take root and begin to direct the process of change. And where do the different ideas come from? Wendell Berry (1987) argued that they come from the periphery, which in the context of the 21st century, is the countryside. America’s educational system is not improving, and hasn’t been for decades. Despite the fact that the system flatlined with the advent of the standards and testing movement, the creation of standards and tests has reached a kind of fever pitch—with few stopping to question whether teaching to standards—teaching the same material to all students everywhere—makes any kind of sense from a learning standpoint. The fallout from our standards/testing fetish has been welldocumented: a narrowing of curriculum, inhibited curricular imagination among teachers, and a deadening drill/kill experience for youth that has contributed to a spiking drop-out rate. And there is even more insidious fallout, because a standards/testing milieu enables those interested in privatizing and corporatizing America’s educational efforts to use predictable test failures to squeeze their way into the educational arena, putting the very concept of “public” schools at risk. In short, schools are not serving most students well. Where are the ideas that will replace those that drive the status quo? Where will they come from? This issue of the Peabody Journal of Education will argue that Wendell Berry was right, that change in the educational system will come from the countryside, from rural educational leaders with a deep commitment to true education in their particular place on earth. In this issue we will highlight the critical needs and special conditions that affect rural education and we will highlight the possibilities that exist for improving the conditions that exist in all schools. Rural school leaders need to decide when to exercise their voice, and be bold and confident in the face of cultural and stereotypical characterizations of rural life and living and therefore, by extension, cultural and stereotypical characterizations regarding the worth and quality of rural education

Place-based Learning: instilling a sense of wonder.

Place-based learning is powerful. It can be implemented in rural, suburban and urban school districts as well as universities. Contextualizing learning with the students lived experiences will increase student achievement and in the words of Rachel Carson, create “a sense of wonder so indestructible that it would last throughout life (2011).

Effect of a small change in auricle projection on sound localization

Pinnae assist in sound localization, and changes in auricle shape, position, or projection can theoretically alter the perceived position of a sound. The minimal displacement required to affect perceived sound location is undefined. This study quantified the error in horizontal sound localization when auricle projection is slightly decreased. The study was conducted at two sites by different experimenters, using different (though similar) systems, over a year apart. There were 21 normal-hearing participants: 11 at the University of Virginia (UVA) and 10 at James Madison University (JMU). Both UVA and JMU protocols involved a normal listening condition and a second condition with a headband that slightly altered pinnae projection by pushing the helixes medially against the temporal bones. Participants identified the location of a short, moderate-intensity noise burst from one of 8 speakers distributed in a horizontal array. Root mean squared error was calculated from tests of 48 trials. Localization errors in the UVA data were greater with the headband than without (t10=2.6; p=.023; Cohen’s d=.8 or ‘large’ effect size). The experiment was repeated at JMU and results replicated; localization errors were greater with than without the headband (t9=2.4; p=.034; Cohen’s d=.8). There was no effect of testing order and no consistent direction of error in either protocol. None of six anatomical measurements of pinnae correlated with the decrease in azimuth accuracy. Combined data from both experiments show a highly significant effect of the slightly medialized helix (t20=3.6, p=.002; d=.9). These data indicate the minimum pinna change required to alter sound localization is at least as small as the 15 mm average movement of the helix or 29 degree reduction in auricle projection. These data on psychoacoustic effect of altering auricle projection may be of relevance after otoplastic operations