The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate.

Mid-Holocene climate was characterized by strong summer solar heating that decreased Arctic sea ice cover. Motivated by recent studies identifying Arctic sea ice loss as a key driver of future climate change, we separate the influences of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate. By performing idealized climate model perturbation experiments, we show that Arctic sea ice loss causes zonally asymmetric surface temperature responses especially in winter: sea ice loss warms North America and the North Pacific, which would otherwise be much colder due to weaker winter insolation. In contrast, over East Asia, sea ice loss slightly decreases the temperature in early winter. These temperature responses are associated with the weakening of mid-high latitude westerlies and polar stratospheric warming. Sea ice loss also weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, although this weakening signal diminishes after 150-200 years of model integration. These results suggest that mid-Holocene climate changes should be interpreted in terms of both Arctic sea ice cover and insolation forcing

The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model

Rapid Arctic sea ice retreat has fueled speculation about the possibility of threshold (or ‘tipping point’) behavior and irreversible loss of the sea ice cover. We test sea ice reversibility within a state-of-the-art atmosphere–ocean global climate model by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide until the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free throughout the year and subsequently decreasing it until the initial ice cover returns. Evidence for irreversibility in the form of hysteresis outside the envelope of natural variability is explored for the loss of summer and winter ice in both hemispheres. We find no evidence of irreversibility or multiple ice-cover states over the full range of simulated sea ice conditions between the modern climate and that with an annually ice-free Arctic Ocean. Summer sea ice area recovers as hemispheric temperature cools along a trajectory that is indistinguishable from the trajectory of summer sea ice loss, while the recovery of winter ice area appears to be slowed due to the long response times of the ocean near the modern winter ice edge. The results are discussed in the context of previous studies that assess the plausibility of sea ice tipping points by other methods. The findings serve as evidence against the existence of threshold behavior in the summer or winter ice cover in either hemisphere

Investigation of North Pacific sea ice anomalies in the context of atmospheric and oceanic variability

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2001This study investigates the main mode of variability in North Pacific sea ice and examines the relationship between sea ice concentration and northern hemispheric climate variability for the period 1968-1997. Through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, correlations, and composite analysis, it was found that the seesaw pattern (first EOF of wintertime sea ice concentrations) between ice concentrations in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, generally used to characterize North Pacific sea ice, does not adequately address variability in the Sea of Okhotsk. Relationships between the sea ice dipole and the large-scale circulation were investigated and were found to change with the 1977 and 1989 regime shifts in the North Pacific climate. Before 1977 the sea ice dipole is strongly related to tropical variability while after 1977 the dipole is more strongly related to mid-latitude variability

Modern spatial sea-ice variability in the central Arctic Ocean and adjacent marginal seas: Reconstruction from biomarker data

Sea ice is a fundamental component of Earth’s climate system, contributing to heat reduction (albedo) and deep-water formation. In order to understand processes controlling the recent dramatic reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover, it is essential to determine spatial and temporal changes in sea-ice occurrence and its natural variability in the present and past. Here, we present biomarker data from surface sediments and related to the modern spatial (seasonal) sea-ice variability in the central Arctic Ocean and adjacent marginal seas (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, Laptev and Kara seas) as well as the Fram Strait/Yermak Plateau area. We determined concentrations of the sea-ice diatom-derived biomarker “IP25″ (highly-branched isoprenoid – HBI – with 25 carbon atom; Belt et al., 2007), phytoplankton-derived biomarkers (brassicasterol and dinosterol) and terrigenous biomarkers (campesterol and Î_-sitosterol) to estimate recent sea-ice conditions in the study area. A combined phytoplankton-IP25 biomarker approach (“PIP25 index”; Müller et al., 2009, 2011) is used to reconstruct the modern sea-ice distribution more quantitatively. In addition, the distribution pattern of HBI-diene/IP25 ratios has been determined to test a proposed relationship between the diene/IP25 ratio and sea-surface temperatures in Arctic marginal ice-zone environments (Fahl and Stein, 2012; Stein et al., 2012). Assessment of sea-ice conditions based on these biomarker data display that a quite stable marginal ice zone exists along the continental shelf/slope of Kara and Laptev seas during summer/early fall. Elevated IP25 as well as brassicasterol and dinosterol values occurring in the central Kara and Laptev seas are related to extended sea-ice-cover and higher primary production (close to ice-edge situation). Further to the north and the central Arctic Ocean, lower IP25 and phytoplankton biomarker concentrations point to a more close sea-ice cover situation

Sea ice trends in climate models only accurate in runs with biased global warming

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, we find that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically corresponds with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. We show that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions

Quantifying the influence of sea ice on ocean microseism using observations from the Bering Sea, Alaska

Microseism is potentially affected by all processes that alter ocean wave heights. Because strong sea ice prevents large ocean waves from forming, sea ice can therefore significantly affect microseism amplitudes. Here we show that this link between sea ice and microseism is not only a robust one but can be quantified. In particular, we show that 75–90% of the variability in microseism power in the Bering Sea can be predicted using a fairly crude model of microseism damping by sea ice. The success of this simple parameterization suggests that an even stronger link can be established between the mechanical strength of sea ice and microseism power, and that microseism can eventually be used to monitor the strength of sea ice, a quantity that is not as easily observed through other means

Neoglacial cooling culminates in rapid sea ice oscillations in eastern Fram Strait

EGU2011-407 The spatial and temporal distribution of sea ice in the subpolar North Atlantic is mainly controlled by the advection of warm Atlantic Water via the Norwegian and West Spitsbergen Current in eastern Fram Strait. Simultaneously, polar water and sea ice from the Arctic Ocean is transported southward by the East Greenland Current. Hence, variations in the strength of this oceanic circulation regime may either stimulate or reduce the sea ice extent. Based on organic geochemical studies of a high-resolution sediment core from eastern Fram Strait we provide new evidence for the highly variable character of the sea ice conditions in this area. The combination of the sea ice proxy IP25 (Belt et al., 2007) with phytoplankton derived biomarkers (e.g. brassicasterol, dinosterol; Volkman 2006) enables a reliable reconstruction of sea surface and sea ice conditions, respectively (Müller et al., 2009; 2010). By means of these biomarkers, we trace gradually increasing sea ice occurrences from the Mid to the Late Holocene – consistent with the neoglacial cooling trend. Throughout the past ca. 3,000 years (BP) we observe a significant short-term variability in the biomarker records, which points to rapid advances and retreats of the sea ice cover at the continental margin of West Spitsbergen. The co-occurrence of IP25 and phytoplankton markers, however, suggests that the primary productivity benefits from these sea ice surges. As such, higher amounts of open-water phytoplankton biomarkers together with peak abundances of IP25 indicate recurring periods of enhanced ice-edge phytoplankton blooms at the core site. To what extent a seesawing of temperate Atlantic Water may account for these sea ice fluctuations requires further investigation. Concurrent variations in Siberian river discharge (Stein et al., 2004) or Norwegian glacier extents (Nesje et al., 2001), however, strengthen that these fluctuations may be assigned to variations in the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and (hence) a weakened/accelerated Atlantic Water input and Arctic sea ice export

Circumpolar connections between Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba Dana) populations: investigating the roles of ocean and sea ice transport

Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba Dana, has a heterogeneous circumpolar distribution in the Southern Ocean. Krill have a close association with sea ice which provides access to a critical food source and shelter, particularly in the early life stages. Advective modelling of transport pathways of krill have until now been on regional scales and have not taken explicit account of sea ice. Here we present Lagrangian modelling studies at the circumpolar scale that include interaction with sea ice. The advection scheme uses ocean velocity output from the Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling (OCCAM) project model together with satellite-derived sea ice motion vectors to examine the potential roles of the ocean and sea ice in maintaining the observed circumpolar krill distribution. We show that the Antarctic Coastal Current is likely to be important in generating the large-scale distribution and that sea ice motion can substantially modify the ocean transport pathways, enhancing retention or dispersal depending upon location. Within the major krill region of the Scotia Sea, the effect of temporal variability in both the ocean and sea ice velocity fields is examined. Variability in sea ice motion increases variability of influx to South Georgia, at times concentrating the influx into pulses of arrival. This variability has implications for the ecosystem around the island. The inclusion of sea ice motion leads to the identification of source regions for the South Georgia krill populations additional to those identified when only ocean motion is considered. This study indicates that the circumpolar oceanic circulation and interaction with sea ice is important in determining the large-scale distribution of krill and its associated variability

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming