Bayesian hierarchical linear modeling of NFL quarterback rating

textWith endless amounts of statistics in American football, there are numerous ways to evaluate quarterback performance in the National Football League. Owners, general managers, and coaches are always looking for ways to improve quarterback play to increase overall team performance. In doing so, one may ask: Does the performance in the first quarter have any effect on the fourth quarter performance? This paper will investigate the linear dependence of the first quarter NFL QB rating on the fourth quarter NFL QB rating for 17 NFL starting quarterbacks from the 2014-2015 season. The aim is to use Bayesian hierarchical linear modeling to attain slope and intercept estimates for each quarterback in the study and attempt to determine what is causing the dependence, if any. Then, if a linear dependence is detected, investigating whether or not the statistic used is a viable measure of performance.Statistic

Race and the evaluation of signal callers in the national football league

Until recently, the position of quarterback in the National Football League (NFL) was not an option for black athletes. Today many teams employ black quarterbacks, a development that might suggest race is no longer relevant when it comes to the evaluation of signal callers in the NFL. To examine this contention, this paper explores the relationship between player salary, performance, and race at the quarterback position over the period 1995 to 2006. We find that blacks and whites play this position differently. Specifically, black quarterbacks are more likely to run with the football. This skill, though, is not compensated in the market. Consequently, there is evidence that blacks face an uncompensated entry barrier in this particular occupation

Race and the evaluation of signal callers in the national football league

Until recently, the position of quarterback in the National Football League (NFL) was not an option for black athletes. Today many teams employ black quarterbacks, a development that might suggest race is no longer relevant when it comes to the evaluation of signal callers in the NFL. To examine this contention, this paper explores the relationship between player salary, performance, and race at the quarterback position over the period 1995 to 2006. We find that blacks and whites play this position differently. Specifically, black quarterbacks are more likely to run with the football. This skill, though, is not compensated in the market. Consequently, there is evidence that blacks face an uncompensated entry barrier in this particular occupation.

Does ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating Help Explain an NFL Team’s Probability of Winning?

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between an NFL quarterback’s Total Quarterback Rating (TQR) and his team’s prospect of winning games. We use a binary-logit model to estimate the marginal effects of TQR on the probability of winning, controlling for teams’ power rankings and home-field advantage. We find that a 5-point improvement in the TQR score would lead to a 2% increase in the probability of winning the game. Our results suggest that NFL coaches could see an increase in the probability of winning through the improvement of their quarterbacks’ performance. This model can also be used to predict the outcome of NFL games in the coming seasons

The Community Quarterback: Veterans and Their Families are Coming Home, Are We Ready?

Are we ready? Is our community ready? Is our country ready to honor the moral obligation to ensure that its veterans and their families receive the services promised to them when they enlisted and to completely address any injury, illness or other disparity created as a result of their service?There appears to be no end in sight to the ongoing stressors for military personnel and their families. The United States has been continuously at war for more than a decade with the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan the longest in our nation's history. Persistent instabilities in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia are likely to keep American forces engaged in combat operations for many years to come. The demanding operational tempo of two challenging combat theaters coupled with the nature of the nation's all-volunteer force, and the expanded involvement of military reservists has meant that many service members have been deployed multiple times since 2001, which in turn has brought family and community issues to the forefront and into the realm of veterans issues. It is apparent that psychological and personal stresses for service members and their families are more prevalent and widespread than previously understood. The transition from military to civilian life can be difficult and is not always negotiated successfully.We know that communities that successfully support their military-impacted populations are those that engage their entire citizenry in the unique challenges facing veterans transitioning home. Therefore, we need to create a coordinated community-based approach that brings together diverse sets of resources and identifies new opportunities across public and private sectors. It is unlikely that the needs of veterans and their families will be adequately addressed unless local, state and federal agencies join forces and work together with public and private nonprofit organizations that are providing services and care for them

The factors affecting team performance in the NFL: does off-field conduct matter?

This paper contains a statistical analysis of the factors that contribute to team wins in the NFL. The variables examined are divided into offensive, defensive, and special teams categories. In addition, net turnovers, penalties, and off-field conduct, as measured by team arrests, are also included as independent variables. The results show that the quarterback rating has the largest impact on team wins followed by field goal percentage, opponent's passing yards per game, and opponent''s rushing yards per game. Team arrests were not found to have a statistically significant impact on team performance.

Are NFL Athletes Receiving Over-Valued Contracts?

Many sport research studies have been conducted that examine the performance of professional athletes and their corresponding effect on franchise winning percentages, team revenues, economic repercussions, performance-based compensation, and much more. Research in the National Football League, however, has been found to be somewhat limited due to the numerous possible positions and resulting vastness of position-specific variables. The NFL lockout in 2011 caused many to question the specific relationship between professional athlete performance and salary distribution. This study’s purpose was to find a collection of variables with which all NFL athletes could be compared, and to identify relationships existing between a player’s performance and his value/salary. Data was collected from USAToday.com, Pro-football-reference.com, and AdvancedNFLStats.com. This data was then organized and manipulated into a format that allowed all players in the league during the 2009 season to be compared. Of the nine variables considered for this study, four were found to have a significant relationship with a player’s value/salary. These results were utilized to create a Player Valuation model and then analyze the overall salary distribution throughout the NFL. From this, it was observed while there are many athletes in the NFL that receive extravagant salaries well over their projected value, there is a much larger portion of the league that is undervalued and receive less than their projected value. It was then concluded that a super-star variable would be necessary to create a more accurate Player Valuation model, and the reason there is a larger proportion of NFL players receiving a lower salary than they deserve is due to franchise cap limits. These cap limits place pressure on franchises to push down the salaries of non-superstar athletes in order to compensate for the salaries required for the super-star athletes on their rosters

Using camera motion to identify different types of American football plays

This paper presents a method that uses camera motion parameters to recognise 7 types of American football plays. The approach is based on the motion information extracted from the video and it can identify short and long pass plays, short and long running plays, quarterback sacks, punt plays and kickoff plays. This method has the advantage that it is fast and it does not require player or ball tracking. The system was trained and tested using 782 plays and the results show that the system has an overall classification accuracy of 68%.<br /

Predictive Analytics for Fantasy Football: Predicting Player Performance Across the NFL

The goal of this research is to develop a quantitative method of ranking and listing players in terms of performance. These rankings can then be used to evaluate players prior to and during a fantasy football draft. To produce these rankings, we develop a methodology for forecasting the performance of each individual player (on different metrics) for the upcoming season (16 games) and use these forecasts to estimate player fantasy football scores for the 2018 season. More specifically, this work answers the following: In what order should players be drafted in a 2018 fantasy football draft and why? Which players can be expected to perform the best at their given position (Quarterback, Running back, Wide Receiver, Kicker, Team Defense) in 2018, and which players should we expect to perform poorly