Week 52 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season

This document is another installment in a series of near real-time weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present some of the results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 52 (i.e. the forecast begins December 30, 2012) for municipalities in the United States. The forecasts were made on January 4, 2013. Results from forecasts initiated the five previous weeks (Weeks 47-51) are also presented

Phase transition in a mean-field model for sympatric speciation

We introduce an analytical model for population dynamics with intra-specific competition, mutation and assortative mating as basic ingredients. The set of equations that describes the time evolution of population size in a mean-field approximation may be decoupled. We find a phase transition leading to sympatric speciation as a parameter that quantifies competition strength is varied. This transition, previously found in a computational model, occurs to be of first order.Comment: accepted for Physica

Evolutionary and Ecological Trees and Networks

Evolutionary relationships between species are usually represented in phylogenies, i.e. evolutionary trees, which are a type of networks. The terminal nodes of these trees represent species, which are made of individuals and populations among which gene flow occurs. This flow can also be represented as a network. In this paper we briefly show some properties of these complex networks of evolutionary and ecological relationships. First, we characterize large scale evolutionary relationships in the Tree of Life by a degree distribution. Second, we represent genetic relationships between individuals of a Mediterranean marine plant, Posidonia oceanica, in terms of a Minimum Spanning Tree. Finally, relationships among plant shoots inside populations are represented as networks of genetic similarity.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Proceedings of the Medyfinol06 Conferenc