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Predictive Uncertainty through Quantization
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive
models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid
variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side
of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions
(SQUAD), which imposes a flexible yet tractable distribution over discretized
latent variables. The proposed method is scalable, self-normalizing and sample
efficient. We demonstrate that the model fully utilizes the flexible
distribution, learns interesting non-linearities, and provides predictive
uncertainty of competitive quality
Predictive uncertainty in auditory sequence processing
Copyright © 2014 Hansen and Pearce. This is an open-access article distributed under
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or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance
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which does not comply with these terms
Will the NHS continue to function in an influenza pandemic? A survey of healthcare workers in the West Midlands, UK
If UK healthcare services are to respond effectively to pandemic influenza, levels of absenteeism amongst healthcare workers (HCWs) must be minimised. Current estimates of the likelihood that HCWs will continue to attend work during a pandemic are subject to scientific and predictive uncertainty, yet an informed evidence base is needed if contingency plans addressing the issues of HCW absenteeism are to be prepared
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