Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models

The languages of peace during the French religious wars

The desirability of peace was a common topos in sixteenth-century political rhetoric, and the duty of the king to uphold the peace for the benefit of his subjects was also a long-established tradition. However, the peculiar circumstances of the French religious wars, and the preferred royal policy of pacification, galvanized impassioned debate among both those who supported and those who opposed confessional coexistence. This article looks at the diverse ways in which peace was viewed during the religious wars through an exploration of language and context. It draws not only on the pronouncements of the crown and its officials, and of poets and jurists, but also on those of local communities and confessional groups. Opinion was not just divided along religious lines; political imperatives, philosophical positions and local conditions all came into play in the arguments deployed. The variegated languages of peace provide a social and cultural dimension for the contested nature of sixteenth-century French politics. However, they could not restore harmony to a war-torn and divided kingdom

The kingdom's two bodies? : corporeal rhetoric and royal authority during the religious wars

The conventional discourse of the body politic assumed a peculiar resonance during the French religious wars due to the unique identification of the king with the well-being of his kingdom. The duality of this relationship was echoed in the language and imagery of corporeal rhetoric which infused the declarations of all sides during the conflict. The combined threat of heresy and civil war, and the shared imperative to defend the unity and integrity of the kingdom, lent a renewed relevance, but also a profound discord, to this rhetoric. While opinions differed about the best means to cure France's ills—the royal policy of pacification being the most controversial of them—monarchical authority was bolstered by the king's undisputed role as head of the body politic and protector of, and physician to, his realm

Near-Infrared Broad-Line Profiles In Low-Redshift QSOs

We present near-infrared and optical spectrophotometry of six low-redshift QSOs. The integrated Pa-alpha/H-alpha-ratios cluster near the value 0.1, with one exception having a larger ratio consistent with other evidence of reddening. At least two of the Pa-alpha/H-alpha-profile ratios decrease with observed velocity. We discuss some implications for the dynamics of the broad-line region and this ratio's usefulness as a reddening indicator. We also present a spectrum of the He I-lambda-10830, Pa-lambda-blend of 1226 + 023. The He I/H-alpha-profile ratio shows marginal evidence for decreasing with observed velocity, which is consistent with the interpretation for the Pa-alpha/H-alpha-profile ratios.NSF 84-14652McDonald Observator

Modelling observed and unobserved factors in cycling to railway stations: application to transit-oriented-developments in the Netherlands

Typically, mode choice behaviour is studied as a function of observed travel factors. Given the importance of unobservable factors on choice behaviour, this paper deviates from this approach. We analysed cycling as mode choice to access railway stations, incorporating latent variables and psychometric data to capture relatively intangible factors that influence mode choice. Such factors are not observable, but can manifest themselves through adjustable indicators. The database used for this paper contains 12000 observations of journeys carried out in the Rotterdam - The Hague area in the Netherlands, covering thirty-five railway stations. In addition to using a traditional binary logit model, we estimated three hybrid choice models for access mode choice. These hybrid choice models represented observed and unobserved factors simultaneously, including the train users' perception of connectivity, attitude towards station environment and perceived quality of bicycle facilities. The results show that both attitudes and observable travel-related elements are important in the decision to cycle to the station or not. Variations in these perceptions and attitudes significantly affect the bicycle-train share. At the same time, improvements in unguarded bicycle parking facilities may increase the number of people who cycle to the train station more than improvements in guarded bicycle parking would. Moreover, the availability of the parking facilities is crucial during rush hours. Another conclusion is that transport strategies to encourage bicycle-train use must be implemented by station type, i.e. measures to encourage bicycle access at larger stations. Further research would develop a hybrid choice model for egress, and a stated choice experiment would compare these results

Crisis management during anaesthesia: difficult intubation

BACKGROUND: Anaesthetists may experience difficulty with intubation unexpectedly which may be associated with difficulty in ventilating the patient. If not well managed, there may be serious consequences for the patient. A simple structured approach to this problem was developed to assist the anaesthetist in this difficult situation. OBJECTIVES: To examine the role of a specific sub-algorithm for the management of difficult intubation. METHODS: The potential performance of a structured approach developed by review of the literature and analysis of each of the relevant incidents among the first 4000 reported to the Australian Incident Monitoring Study (AIMS) was compared with the actual management as reported by the anaesthetists involved. RESULTS: There were 147 reports of difficult intubation capable of analysis among the first 4000 incidents reported to AIMS. The difficulty was unexpected in 52% of cases; major physiological changes occurred in 37% of these cases. Saturation fell below 90% in 22% of cases, oesophageal intubation was reported in 19%, and an emergency transtracheal airway was required in 4% of cases. Obesity and limited neck mobility and mouth opening were the most common anatomical contributing factors. CONCLUSION: The data confirm previously reported failures to predict difficult intubation with existing preoperative clinical tests and suggest an ongoing need to teach a pre-learned strategy to deal with difficult intubation and any associated problem with ventilation. An easy-to-follow structured approach to these problems is outlined. It is recommended that skilled assistance be obtained (preferably another anaesthetist) when difficulty is expected or the patient’s cardiorespiratory reserve is low. Patients should be assessed postoperatively to exclude any sequelae and to inform them of the difficulties encountered. These should be clearly documented and appropriate steps taken to warn future anaesthetists.A D Paix, J A Williamson and W B Runcima

A Tran-Atlantic Condominium of Democratic power: the grand design for a post-war order in french policy at the Paris Peace Conference

This article offers a new interpretation of French policy at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919. Based on a close reading of the archival record generated by the government of Georges Clemenceau, it argues that the bases of French policy at the Conference have been misunderstood. For the past century the majority of scholars writing about this period have accepted the standard interpretation that premier Clemenceau and his advisors were committed practitioners of Realpolitik who aimed above all at the destruction of German power. The 'realism' of the French post-war vision is typically placed in opposition to the more idealistic post-war visions of the British and especially the American delegations. This essay rejects this standard view. It argues instead that the Clemenceau government's peace programme was based on a Transatlantic vision of post-war order. This vision was based on a fascinating combination of presumed ideological affinities and common common economic and strategic interests

From contract to treaty: the legal transformation of the Spanish succession (1659-1713)

The problem of the Spanish Succession kept the European diplomatic system in suspense from 1659 until 1713. Statesmen and diplomats tackled the question. Their practical vision of the law is a necessary complement to legal doctrine. Louis XIV and Emperor Leopold I used incompatible and absolute claims, which started in private law and Spanish succession law. At the Peace of Utrecht, these arguments completely dissolved. The War of The Spanish Succession thus not only redesigned the political map of Europe. It altered the norm hierarchy in public law, strengthening international law as the framework of the “Société des Princes”