Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa : effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.; The dynamic Plasmodium falciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.; Selected (best) GLMs explained 94-97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86-97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74-95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5-7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.; Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control

Encouraging impact following 2.5 years of reinforced malaria control interventions in a hyperendemic region of the Republic of Guinea.

Malaria is one of the principal causes of morbidity and mortality in the Republic of Guinea, particularly in the highly endemic regions. To assist in malaria control efforts, a multi-component malaria control intervention was implemented in the hyperendemic region of Guéckédou Prefecture. The coverage of the intervention and its impact on malaria parasite prevalence were assessed. Five cross-sectional surveys using cluster-based sampling and stratified by area were conducted from 2011 to 2013 in three sous-préfectures of Guéckédou Préfecture that received the intervention: Guéckédou City, Tékoulo and Guendembou in addition to one comparison sous-préfecture that did not receive the intervention, Koundou. Surveys were repeated every 6 months, corresponding with the dry and rainy seasons. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) were used to diagnose malaria infection. In each selected household, bed net use and ownership were assessed. A total of 35,123 individuals participated in the surveys. Malaria parasite prevalence declined in all intervention sous-préfectures from 2011 to 2013 (56.4-45.9 % in Guéckédou City, 64.9-54.1 % in Tékoulo and 69.4-56.9 % in Guendembou) while increasing in the comparison sous-préfecture (64.5-69 %). It was consistently higher in children 5-14 years of age followed by those 1-59 months and ≥15 years. Indicators of intervention coverage, the proportion of households reporting ownership of at least one bed net and the proportion of survey participants with fever who received treatment from a health facility or community health worker also increased significantly in the intervention areas. Implementation of the multi-component malaria control intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria in the sous-préfectures of intervention while also increasing the coverage of bed nets. However, malaria prevalence remains unacceptably high and disproportionately affects children <15 years of age. In such situations additional vector control interventions and age specific interventions should be considered

Quantifying behavioural interactions between humans and mosquitoes: evaluating the protective efficacy of insecticidal nets against malaria transmission in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud African malaria vectors bite predominantly indoors at night so sleeping under an Insecticide-Treated Net (ITN) can greatly reduce malaria risk. Behavioural adaptation by mosquitoes to increasing ITN coverage could allow vector mosquitoes to bite outside of peak sleeping hours and undermine efficacy of this key malaria prevention measure.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud High coverage with largely untreated nets has been achieved in the Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania through social marketing programmes. Direct surveys of nightly biting activity by An. gambiae Giles were conducted in the area before (1997) and after (2004) implementation of ITN promotion. A novel analytical model was applied to estimate the effective protection provided by an ITN, based on published experimental hut trials combined with questionnaire surveys of human sleeping behaviour and recorded mosquito biting patterns.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud An. gambiae was predominantly endophagic and nocturnal in both surveys: Approximately 90% and 80% of exposure occurred indoors and during peak sleeping hours, respectively. ITNs consistently conferred >70% protection against exposure to malaria transmission for users relative to non-users.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud As ITN coverage increases, behavioural adaptation by mosquitoes remains a future possibility. The approach described allows comparison of mosquito biting patterns and ITN efficacy at multiple study sites and times. Initial results indicate ITNs remain highly effective and should remain a top-priority intervention. Combined with recently developed transmission models, this approach allows rapid, informative and cost-effective preliminary comparison of diverse control strategies in terms of protection against exposure before more costly and intensive clinical trials

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required

Modest additive effects of integrated vector control measures on malaria prevalence and transmission in western Kenya

Background: The effect of integrating vector larval intervention on malaria transmission is unknown when insecticide-treated bed-net (ITN) coverage is very high, and the optimal indicator for intervention evaluation needs to be determined when transmission is low. Methods: A post hoc assignment of intervention-control cluster design was used to assess the added effect of both indoor residual spraying (IRS) and Bacillus-based larvicides (Bti) in addition to ITN in the western Kenyan highlands in 2010 and 2011. Cross-sectional, mass parasite screenings, adult vector populations, and cohort of active case surveillance (ACS) were conducted before and after the intervention in three study sites with two- to three-paired intervention-control clusters at each site each year. The effect of larviciding, IRS, ITNs and other determinants of malaria risk was assessed by means of mixed estimating methods. Results: Average ITN coverage increased from 41% in 2010 to 92% in 2011 in the study sites. IRS intervention had significant added impact on reducing vector density in 2010 but the impact was modest in 2011. The effect of IRS on reducing parasite prevalence was significant in 2011 but was seasonal specific in 2010. ITN was significantly associated with parasite densities in 2010 but IRS application was significantly correlated with reduced gametocyte density in 2011. IRS application reduced about half of the clinical malaria cases in 2010 and about one-third in 2011 compare to non-intervention areas. Conclusion: Compared with a similar study conducted in 2005, the efficacy of the current integrated vector control with ITN, IRS, and Bti reduced three- to five-fold despite high ITN coverage, reflecting a modest added impact on malaria transmission. Additional strategies need to be developed to further reduce malaria transmission. (Résumé d'auteur

Modelling the Requirements and Benefits of Mosquito Control Interventions in the Presence of Mosquito Dispersal

Vector control methods are widely used as a means to control malaria, however, the role of spatial arrangement when deploying these interventions is not well known. Understanding the effects of spatial distribution and clustering of interventions on mosquito populations can provide a guide to strategically deploying interventions to effectively maximize benefits. A recently developed discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model of mosquito population dynamics and dispersal was extended to incorporate vector control interventions of insecticide residual spraying (IRS), larviciding and insecticide treated bednets (ITNs). Model simulations were used to determine intervention deployment strategies, for certain coverage levels, which maximize the benefits of interventions. Assuming homogeneous distribution of water resources and humans, then clustering of IRS and larviciding interventions, when only low coverage is possible, is more beneficial than random deployment. However, with moderate coverage of these interventions, there is no added benefit with clustering compared to random deployment. For low coverage of ITNs, clustering their distribution lowers the\ud benefits. Surprisingly, with moderate coverage of ITNs then random deployment of ITNs to humans is more beneficial than clustering. There is evidence that the effectiveness of an intervention is highly dependent on its spatial distribution. Although the results presented here are based on model\ud assumptions, the findings are useful to consider when designing modes of deployment of interventions to offer maximal benefits.\u

Biologically meaningful coverage indicators for eliminating malaria transmission.

Mosquitoes, which evade contact with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual sprays, by feeding outdoors or upon animals, are primary malaria vectors in many tropical countries. They can also dominate residual transmission where high coverage of these front-line vector control measures is achieved. Complementary strategies, which extend insecticide coverage beyond houses and humans, are required to eliminate malaria transmission in most settings. The overwhelming diversity of the world's malaria transmission systems and optimal strategies for controlling them can be simply conceptualized and mapped across two-dimensional scenario space defined by the proportion of blood meals that vectors obtain from humans and the proportion of human exposure to them which occurs indoors

Nets, Spray or Both? The Effectiveness of Insecticide-Treated Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying in Reducing Malaria Morbidity and Child Mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Malaria control programmes currently face the challenge of maintaining, as well as accelerating, the progress made against malaria with fewer resources and uncertain funding. There is a critical need to determine what combination of malaria interventions confers the greatest protection against malaria morbidity and child mortality under routine conditions. This study assesses intervention effectiveness experienced by children under the age of five exposed to both insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), as compared to each intervention alone, based on nationally representative survey data collected from 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Living in households with both ITNs and IRS was associated with a significant risk reduction against parasitaemia in medium and high transmission areas, 53% (95% CI 37% to 67%) and 31% (95% CI 11% to 47%) respectively. For medium transmission areas, an additional 36% (95% CI 7% to 53%) protection was garnered by having both interventions compared with exposure to only ITNs or only IRS. Having both ITNs and IRS was not significantly more protective against parasitaemia than either intervention alone in low and high malaria transmission areas. In rural and urban areas, exposure to both interventions provided significant protection against parasitaemia, 57% (95% CI 48% to 65%) and 39% (95% CI 10% to 61%) respectively; however, this effect was not significantly greater than having a singular intervention. Statistically, risk for all-cause child mortality was not significantly reduced by having both ITNs and IRS, and no additional protectiveness was detected for having dual intervention coverage over a singular intervention. These findings suggest that greater reductions in malaria morbidity and health gains for children may be achieved with ITNs and IRS combined beyond the protection offered by IRS or ITNs alone

Attacking the mosquito on multiple fronts: insights from the vector control optimization model (VCOM) for malaria elimination

Despite great achievements by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, it is unlikely these tools will be sufficient to eliminate malaria transmission on their own in many settings today. Fortunately, field experiments indicate that there are many promising vector control interventions that can be used to complement ITNs and/or IRS by targeting a wide range of biological and environmental mosquito resources. The majority of these experiments were performed to test a single vector control intervention in isolation; however, there is growing evidence and consensus that effective vector control with the goal of malaria elimination will require a combination of interventions.; We have developed a model of mosquito population dynamic to describe the mosquito life and feeding cycles and to optimize the impact of vector control intervention combinations at suppressing mosquito populations. The model simulations were performed for the main three malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa, Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis and An. funestus. We considered areas having low, moderate and high malaria transmission, corresponding to entomological inoculation rates of 10, 50 and 100 infective bites per person per year, respectively. In all settings, we considered baseline ITN coverage of 50% or 80% in addition to a range of other vector control tools to interrupt malaria transmission. The model was used to sweep through parameters space to select the best optimal intervention packages. Sample model simulations indicate that, starting with ITNs at a coverage of 50% (An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) or 80% (An. arabiensis) and adding interventions that do not require human participation (e.g. larviciding at 80% coverage, endectocide treated cattle at 50% coverage and attractive toxic sugar baits at 50% coverage) may be sufficient to suppress all the three species to an extent required to achieve local malaria elimination.; The Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) is a computational tool to predict the impact of combined vector control interventions at the mosquito population level in a range of eco-epidemiological settings. The model predicts specific combinations of vector control tools to achieve local malaria elimination in a range of eco-epidemiological settings and can assist researchers and program decision-makers on the design of experimental or operational research to test vector control interventions. A corresponding graphical user interface is available for national malaria control programs and other end users

Community knowledge variation, bed-net coverage, the role of a district health care system and their implications for malaria control in Southern Malawi

This paper presents data on the pattern of knowledge of caregivers, bed-net coverage and the role of a rural district healthcare system, and their implications for malaria transmission, treatment, prevention and control in Chikhwawa, southern Malawi, using multi-level logistic regression modelling with Bayesian estimation. The majority of caregivers could identify the main symptoms of malaria, that the mosquito was the vector, and that insecticide-treated nets (ITN) could be used to cover beds as an effective preventative measure, although cost was a prohibitive factor. Use of bed nets displayed significant variation between communities. Groups that were more knowledgeable on malaria prevention and symptoms included young mothers, people who had attended school, wealthy individuals, those residing closest to government hospitals and health posts, and communities that had access to a health surveillance assistant (HSA). HSAs should be trained on malaria intervention programmes, and tasked with the responsibility of working with village health committees to develop community-based malaria intervention programmes. These programmes should include appropriate and affordable household improvement methods, identification of high-risk groups, distribution of ITNs and the incorporation of larval control measures, to reduce exposure to the vector and parasite. This would reduce the transmission and prevalence of malaria at community level