263,565 research outputs found

    Housing and Debt over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle

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    We study housing and debt in a quantitative general equilibrium model. In the cross-section, the model matches the wealth distribution, the age pro?les of homeownership and mortgage debt, and the frequency of housing adjustment. In the time-series, the model matches the procyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of mortgage debt. We use the model to conduct two experiments. First, we investigate the consequences of higher individual income risk and lower downpayments, and ?nd that these two changes can explain, in the model and in the data, the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of mortgage debt, and a small fraction of the reduced volatility of GDP. Second, we use the model to look at the behavior of housing investment and mortgage debt in an experiment that mimics the Great Recession: we ?nd that countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and mortgage debt when the economy is hit by large negative shocks.Housing, Housing Investment, Mortgage Debt, Life-cycle Models, Income Risk, Homeownership, Precautionary Savings, Borrowing Constraints

    Debt Portfolios

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    We provide a model with endogenous portfolios of secured and unsecured household debt. Secured debt is collateralized by owner-occupied housing whereas unsecured debt can be discharged according to bankruptcy regulations. We show that the calibrated model matches important quantitative characteristics of observed wealth and debt portfolios for prime-age consumers in the U.S. We then establish the quantitative result that home equity does not serve as informal collateral for unsecured debt since, as in the data, unsecured debtors hold small amounts of home equity in equilibrium. Thus, observed variations in homestead exemptions, which are an important part of U.S. bankruptcy regulation, have a small effect on the quantity and price of unsecured debt.household debt portfolios, housing, collateral, bankruptcy, commitment, income risk

    Housing Debt and Consumption

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    The interaction between housing wealth, the financial portfolio of the consumer and consumption is a live issue. Life cycle models with closed form solutions under uncertainty are hard to find. In this paper we find analytical solutions for the effects of house price uncertainty and employment risk on consumption, savings and mortgage finance in a finite horizon life-cycle model. In each period the consumer decides whether to withdraw equity from the house or not, subject to a transaction cost and a constraint on the maximum mortgage loan to house value ratio. Despite risk aversion we findthat, if borrowing is allowed in the financial asset, the prime portfolio effect is the spread between the interest rate and the mortgage rate. House price uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on consumption, which depends on the interest rate differential and house price expectations since future house prices affect future remortgage possibilities. If unsecured debt is not possible, we find that the possibility of future liquidity constraints can reduce mortgage borrowing below the maximum possible.precautionary savings, employment risk, mortgages, housing

    Preserving Multifamily Workforce and Affordable Housing

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    Affordable housing units are increasingly lost or at risk of losing government subsidies, and naturally-occurring affordable housing untis are likely to be used to serve higher-income households. This report highlights 16 leading efforts and innovative approaches to preserve affordable housing, including below-market debt funds, private equity vehicles, and real estate investment trusts

    Private Debt and Idiosyncratic Volatility: A Business Cycle Analysis

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    Debt, durables, volatility, borrowing constraints, housing

    Collaterality and the Housing Wealth Effect

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    The empirical literature has demonstrated that housing assets exhibit larger wealth effects than stocks (or, more broadly, financial assets), which is often interpreted as a larger MPC (Marginal Propensity of Consumption) out of housing wealth. Still, the question remains as to whether this stylized fact has anything to do with the collaterality of housing assets. We build a household consumption and portfolio choice model with two risky assets, housing and stocks, whereby housing can be used as collateral to borrow against. The optimizing agent’s preference and investment opportunity set generate implications of dierent MPCs for groups characterized by their respective asset/debt portfolios. Under calibrated parameters from macro data, the model exhibits the highest MPC for households who simultaneously borrow against housing asset and invest in stocks. We examine the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) micro data of homeowners and find no evidence of this implied collateral eect on non-durable consumption.wealth effects; consumption; portfolio choice; housing; collateral; borrowing constraints; household debt

    Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

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    Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks

    The Spanish hangover. CEPS Policy Brief No. 267, April 2012

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    Spain faces high unemployment and slow growth. This paper focuses on an important source of those problems, namely its housing market. While some adjustment has occurred since Spain's housing bubble burst in 2008, the authors find that house prices and construction need to decrease more to slow Spain's unsustainable accumulation of foreign debt

    Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada

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    Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness.

    The economic and fiscal consequences of financial crises

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    Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues dragged down, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries, the crisis does not lead to the deadliest D: default, but for many it has.financial crises, unemployment, debt, deficit, housing prices
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