Decision analysis and political processes

Decision analysis has been with us for at least half a century. Over that time it has developed from a theoretical paradigm for individual rational choice to a practical tool for individuals, small groups and ‘unitary’ organisations, which helps them towards a sound decision-making mindful of the behavioural characteristics of individuals and group dynamics. Decision analysis has also shown its worth in the context of stakeholder engagement and public participation. The time is right for it to be more widely used in making societal decisions. However, to achieve that we need to realise that in many circumstances it will only be one input to the political process that leads to the actual decision. Recognising that suggests that our community of decision analysts needs to deconstruct our paradigm and attend more to communicating the result of the analysis in comparison with other inputs to the societal decision

Decision analysis and political processes

Decision analysis has been with us for at least half a century. Over that time it has developed from a theoretical paradigm for individual rational choice to a practical tool for individuals, small groups and ‘unitary’ organisations, which helps them towards a sound decision-making mindful of the behavioural characteristics of individuals and group dynamics. Decision analysis has also shown its worth in the context of stakeholder engagement and public participation. The time is right for it to be more widely used in making societal decisions. However, to achieve that we need to realise that in many circumstances it will only be one input to the political process that leads to the actual decision. Recognising that suggests that our community of decision analysts needs to deconstruct our paradigm and attend more to communicating the result of the analysis in comparison with other inputs to the societal decision

Multi-Stakeholder Consensus Decision-Making Framework Based on Trust and Risk

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)This thesis combines human and machine intelligence for consensus decision-making, and it contains four interrelated research areas. Before presenting the four research areas, this thesis presents a literature review on decision-making using two criteria: trust and risk. The analysis involves studying the individual and the multi-stakeholder decision-making. Also, it explores the relationship between trust and risk to provide insight on how to apply them when making any decision. This thesis presents a grouping procedure of the existing trust-based multi-stakeholder decision-making schemes by considering the group decision-making process and models. In the first research area, this thesis presents the foundation of building multi-stakeholder consensus decision-making (MSCDM). This thesis describes trust-based multi-stakeholder decision-making for water allocation to help the participants select a solution that comes from the best model. Several criteria are involved when deciding on a solution such as trust, damage, and benefit. This thesis considers Jain's fairness index as an indicator of reaching balance or equality for the stakeholder's needs. The preferred scenario is when having a high trust, low damages and high benefits. The worst scenario involves having low trust, high damage, and low benefit. The model is dynamic by adapting to the changes over time. The decision to select is the solution that is fair for almost everyone. In the second research area, this thesis presents a MSCDM, which is a generic framework that coordinates the decision-making rounds among stakeholders based on their influence toward each other, as represented by the trust relationship among them. This thesis describes the MSCDM framework that helps to find a decision the stakeholders can agree upon. Reaching a consensus decision might require several rounds where stakeholders negotiate by rating each other. This thesis presents the results of implementing MSCDM and evaluates the effect of trust on the consensus achievement and the reduction in the number of rounds needed to reach the final decision. This thesis presents Rating Convergence in the implemented MSCDM framework, and such convergence is a result of changes in the stakeholders' rating behavior in each round. This thesis evaluates the effect of trust on the rating changes by measuring the distance of the choices made by the stakeholders. Trust is useful in decreasing the distances. In the third research area, this thesis presents Rating Convergence in the implemented MSCDM framework, and such convergence is a result of changes in stakeholders' rating behavior in each round. This thesis evaluates the effect of trust on the rating changes by measuring the perturbation in the rating matrix. Trust is useful in increasing the rating matrix perturbation. Such perturbation helps to decrease the number of rounds. Therefore, trust helps to increase the speed of agreeing upon the same decision through the influence. In the fourth research area, this thesis presents Rating Aggregation operators in the implemented MSCDM framework. This thesis addresses the need for aggregating the stakeholders' ratings while they negotiate on the round of decisions to compute the consensus achievement. This thesis presents four aggregation operators: weighted sum (WS), weighted product (WP), weighted product similarity measure (WPSM), and weighted exponent similarity measure (WESM). This thesis studies the performance of those aggregation operators in terms of consensus achievement and the number of rounds needed. The consensus threshold controls the performance of these operators. The contribution of this thesis lays the foundation for developing a framework for MSCDM that facilitates reaching the consensus decision by accounting for the stakeholders' influences toward one another. Trust represents the influence

Behavioural issues in environmental modelling -the missing perspective

Abstract The paper aims to demonstrate the importance of behavioural issues in environmental modelling. These issues can relate both to the modeler and to the modelling process including the social interaction in the modelling team. The origins of behavioural effects can be in the cognitive and motivational biases or in the social systems created as well as in the visual and verbal communication strategies used. The possible occurrence of these phenomena in the context of environmental modelling is discussed and suggestions for research topics are provided

Co-designing the solution space for rural regeneration in a new World Heritage site: a choice experiments approach

This study develops a participatory multi-methodology intervention designed and deployed to support planning and management of a new World Heritage site, the vineyard landscape of Langhe, Roero and Monferrato, in Northern Italy. The purpose of the study was to support community involvement in the design phase of urban regeneration alternatives. The ultimate objective was to propose practical recommendations for a sustainable regeneration strategy to the Municipal Authority of La Morra, one of the villages located within the core area of the World Heritage site. The analysis context represents a complex territorial system and a challenging decision-making environment due to the presence of: (i) conflicting needs co-existing in the same geographical area, i.e. preservation needs of the World Heritage on one side, and new development needs on the other, (ii) many stakeholders (i.e. residents, tourists, territorial authorities, tourism associations and environmental advocates), and (iii) presence of marginalized communities that are at risk due to the strong trend towards the abandonment of rural areas for big cities. Within this context, the authors propose the use of Stakeholders’ Analysis and Choice Experiments to co-design, together with stakeholders and the local community, feasible strategies for the regeneration of the abandoned rural buildings scattered across the core World Heritage Site. Indeed, the community issue of abandoned rural heritage emerged as both an important weakness of the territorial system under analysis and as an interesting opportunity for rural regeneration

Rethinking 'Progress': an Evaluation of the Wellington Region Genuine Progress Index

There is widespread and long-running discontent with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of progress for society. A number of alternative measures have been proposed, including the Genuine Progress Index (GPI). A GPI has been developed by local government in the Wellington region (New Zealand) to facilitate a rethinking of conventional notions of 'progress'. The Wellington Region GPI (WRGPI) is modelled upon the Nova Scotia GPI, which is a pluralistic index consisting of environmental, social, economic and cultural indicators with either physical or monetary values. The study explores a 'good practice' approach to public participation in the development of the GPI, and provides an overview of the context within which it fits. A synergistic link was found between the Nova Scotia GPI framework and the framework provided by the Local Government Act community outcomes process. Despite this synergy, and the commitment to the GPI on the part of local authorities, a number of challenges emerged from the context. These include the poor integration of the existing community outcomes into institutional decision-making, a weak institutional commitment to the economic valuation procedure of the GPI, and the desire on the part of the present local government minister to reduce the scope of local government. In light of these challenges, a 'good practice' approach has been developed with a normative component: deliberation, influence & inclusion, and a methodological component: purpose, process & context. Deliberation was stressed as a particularly important tool to facilitate institutional and social learning around the WRGPI and to build the value case and a constituency for the WRGPI across the local authorities and community, and therefore increasing the likelihood that conventional notions of 'progress' will be replaced with more holistic ones. While this case study provides insights into the challenge of integrating a GPI into local governance, it is still too early to judge whether the initiative will emerge as a viable alternative to the GDP for the Wellington region

Rethinking 'Progress': an Evaluation of the Wellington Region Genuine Progress Index

There is widespread and long-running discontent with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of progress for society. A number of alternative measures have been proposed, including the Genuine Progress Index (GPI). A GPI has been developed by local government in the Wellington region (New Zealand) to facilitate a rethinking of conventional notions of 'progress'. The Wellington Region GPI (WRGPI) is modelled upon the Nova Scotia GPI, which is a pluralistic index consisting of environmental, social, economic and cultural indicators with either physical or monetary values. The study explores a 'good practice' approach to public participation in the development of the GPI, and provides an overview of the context within which it fits. A synergistic link was found between the Nova Scotia GPI framework and the framework provided by the Local Government Act community outcomes process. Despite this synergy, and the commitment to the GPI on the part of local authorities, a number of challenges emerged from the context. These include the poor integration of the existing community outcomes into institutional decision-making, a weak institutional commitment to the economic valuation procedure of the GPI, and the desire on the part of the present local government minister to reduce the scope of local government. In light of these challenges, a 'good practice' approach has been developed with a normative component: deliberation, influence & inclusion, and a methodological component: purpose, process & context. Deliberation was stressed as a particularly important tool to facilitate institutional and social learning around the WRGPI and to build the value case and a constituency for the WRGPI across the local authorities and community, and therefore increasing the likelihood that conventional notions of 'progress' will be replaced with more holistic ones. While this case study provides insights into the challenge of integrating a GPI into local governance, it is still too early to judge whether the initiative will emerge as a viable alternative to the GDP for the Wellington region

Activating Values to Enhance e-Participation in Environmental Decision-making

A participatory modeling approach is designed to connect citizens and decision-makers during the selection of the most appropriate alternative solution to an environmental project based on user values systems. First, a novel approach to supporting values-based decision-making is proposed in which values activation is prompted using visual feedback and interactive modules in a software program. Next, the design parameters for a prototype software program called P2P-DSS are presented. P2P-DSS is designed in the style of an online survey, with the added capacity to activate values and provide a shared online space connecting individuals with a survey builder. In this thesis, P2P-DSS is proposed, designed, and then applied to a real-world example in environmental project evaluation. A formal decision-maker with a professional role in the evaluation of an aggregate mining application used P2P-DSS to build a model of the decision from their own perspective. Fifteen volunteers then used P2P-DSS to learn about the issue, provide their individual input in the form of ranked preferences for potential outcomes, and examine the role that values play in their own assessment of the project and the perspective of the model builder. P2P-DSS records every interaction with the software program and participants completed a post-task survey to assess aspects of the system’s performance from their perspective. By analyzing both revealed and stated preferences from the formal decision-maker and public participants, the capacity for the P2P-DSS technique to translate some of the known benefits of values-based thinking into a participatory online platform is indicated. This thesis then addresses the challenge of translating data collected from individuals into collective preference rankings that are useful for decision-makers. With reference to the aggregate mining example, participant input is aggregated using a Modified Borda Count technique. Thus, while values activation is facilitated in this study on an individual basis, the resulting input can be analyzed as group utilities, the possible implications of this information are examined in depth. Finally, a novel data set emerges from this research with implications for decision-making, communications, and conflict management. That is, a model builder calibrates a model by connecting specific values with option choices. Participants can then register a ‘values protest’ by using interactive software tools in P2P-DSS to challenge the values connections calibrated by the model builder. Values protests have implications for the preferences input by the participant and are stored by P2P-DSS as a data point. Next, analysis is conducted to isolate potential points of conflict based on emergent patterns in those protests. This new dataset reveals aspects of the decision context for which different groups do not have a shared understanding of how their decision-making is driven by their underlying values. Gaining insight into the roots of values-based conflicts can be useful for conflict prediction and management, strategic decision-making, and the fine tuning of communications by stakeholder groups. This dissertation examines the boundaries and opportunities for values-based participatory modeling. Specifically, through the design and testing of P2P-DSS this work operationalizes the theory of values activation, thereby expanding the reach of values-based decision-making in online settings. Moreover, by testing protocols to aggregate values-based preferences collected at the individual level into group utility rankings, the P2P-DSS approach is prepared to make contributions for group decision-making. Finally, a new type of data, values protests, is generated and discussed, demonstrating how it can be harnessed to understand and contribute to the management of values conflicts in issues of public interest. Finally, while presenting a novel approach to environmental research, this work also demonstrates that some of the perceived limitations of values research, that are discussed in this thesis, deserve reassessment, as the interactive capacity of software programs opens new avenues to expand the reach of values-based decision-making