A two-step fusion process for multi-criteria decision applied to natural hazards in mountains

Mountain river torrents and snow avalanches generate human and material damages with dramatic consequences. Knowledge about natural phenomenona is often lacking and expertise is required for decision and risk management purposes using multi-disciplinary quantitative or qualitative approaches. Expertise is considered as a decision process based on imperfect information coming from more or less reliable and conflicting sources. A methodology mixing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria aid-decision method, and information fusion using Belief Function Theory is described. Fuzzy Sets and Possibilities theories allow to transform quantitative and qualitative criteria into a common frame of discernment for decision in Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST ) and Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) contexts. Main issues consist in basic belief assignments elicitation, conflict identification and management, fusion rule choices, results validation but also in specific needs to make a difference between importance and reliability and uncertainty in the fusion process

MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS AS A TOOL FOR MUNICIPAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

In most decision making situations more than one criterion is involved and, as a consequence, confusion can arise if there is no logical and well structured decision-making process in place. The multi-criteria analysis (MCA) constitutes a tool that can help evaluate the relative importance of all criteria involved and reflect on their importance during project management and decision making. MCA is a management tool aiming at supporting decision makers faced with making numerous and conflicting evaluations by deriving a way to come to a compromise. This paper discusses the possibilities of applying MCA in the field of municipal property management, where the decision-makers have to find the most convenient destinations of municipal assets that can be used for various purposes such as: governmental, business, social use. In each case specific criteria and indicators are employed in the ranking and rating process, so as to get the corresponding weighted score. An application is also presented, as performed within a work package included in the project “Municipal Property Management in South- Eastern Cities (PROMISE)â€, aiming to develop a comprehensive system for municipal property classification for governmental use, social use and business use by means of criteria previously defined, processed by MCA operation. The resulted system is adapted to the strategic goals of the administrative authorities, contributing to an effective municipal property management by optimising and standardising the decision-making procedures. The framework created enables the municipalities to find an appealing combination between the use of properties for their own needs and for attracting investment and promoting sustainable development of their cities and regions. The project was initiated in 2009, being funded by the ERDF within the South-East Territorial Co-operation Programme. Keywords: multi-criteria analysis, criteria, indicators, ranking, municipal assets, strategic management

Paradoxes and consumer decision-making

Consumers often find themselves faced with conflicting evaluations in which they identify both positive and negative aspects of a purchase or consumption experience. A paradox occurs when the individual is aware of the conflicting evaluations and experiences tension as a result. While there are strong potential implications of paradox, marketing research has been slow to study consumption paradoxes. As a result, many deficiencies exist in the literature, including no consensus as to the definition of consumer paradox, insufficient quantitative measurement, and limited knowledge of the antecedents and consequences of paradox. This dissertation was conducted to address these shortcomings. Essay one was conducted to develop a basic understanding of consumer paradox and examine the similarities and differences between paradox, ambivalence and mixed emotions. As such, it integrated divergent literature streams and developed a new definition of paradox, distinct from ambivalence and mixed emotions. Furthermore, a hermeneutical interpretive approach was used to interpret in-depth interviews that replicated existing paradox research and identified a new technology paradox. Essay two was conducted to develop a measurement technique for capturing the presence of paradox in consumption situations. Four pretests and two studies were conducted to develop and test this new measurement technique that captured the two conditions for paradox: the recognition of two opposing, irreconcilable evaluations and the feeling of tension brought about by the opposing evaluations. Additionally, factor analysis was employed to determine the overall structure of the various types of paradoxes. Essay three was conducted to delineate and test a theoretical framework of consumption paradox. It was the first to empirically test antecedents and outcomes of paradox, and found that antecedents and outcomes exhibited different relationships under different technology paradoxes. The research failed to find any evidence that coping mediates the proposed model. This research offers contributions by defining paradox as distinct from ambivalence and mixed emotions, developing a comprehensive measurement protocol for assessing paradoxes, and delineating and empirically testing a conceptual framework of paradox. It offers managers insight into the underlying causes of paradox, the associations between paradoxes, and possible strategies to reduce the occurrence of paradox

Occupational Cultures as a Challenge to Technological Innovation

This paper explains conflict over technological process innovation in cultural terms, drawing primarily on a case study of electric power distribution and strategies to automate its operation

Neutrino masses and Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay: Status and expectations

Two most outstanding questions are puzzling the world of neutrino Physics: the possible Majorana nature of neutrinos and their absolute mass scale. Direct neutrino mass measurements and neutrinoless double beta decay (0nuDBD) are the present strategy to solve the puzzle. Neutrinoless double beta decay violates lepton number by two units and can occurr only if neutrinos are massive Majorana particles. A positive observation would therefore necessarily imply a new regime of physics beyond the standard model, providing fundamental information on the nature of the neutrinos and on their absolute mass scale. After the observation of neutrino oscillations and given the present knowledge of neutrino masses and mixing parameters, a possibility to observe 0nuDBDD at a neutrino mass scale in the range 10-50 meV could actually exist. This is a real challenge faced by a number of new proposed projects. Present status and future perpectives of neutrinoless double-beta decay experimental searches is reviewed. The most important parameters contributing to the experimental sensitivity are outlined. A short discussion on nuclear matrix element calculations is also given. Complementary measurements to assess the absolute neutrino mass scale (cosmology and single beta decays) are also discussed.Comment: Presented at the "European Strategy for Future Neutrino Physics" Workshop, CERN October 1-3 200

Contextualism, Relativism and the Liar

Contextualist theories of truth appeal to context to solve the liar paradox: different stages of reasoning occur in different contexts, and so the contradiction is dispelled. The word `true' is relativized by the contextualists to contexts of use. This paper shows that contextualist approaches to the liar are committed to a form of semantic relativism: that the truth value of some sentences depends on the context of assessment, as well as the context of use. In particular, it is shown how Simmons's and Glanzberg's contextualist approaches entail relativism. In both cases, the liar sentence gets different semantic evaluations as uttered in a fixed context of use but assessed from different contexts. Shift in context of use alone cannot provide the full explanation of the liar. These contextualist approaches, as originally presented, were thus mischaracterised and they should be re-evaluated according to their full implications