Comparison of academic performance of twins and singletons in adolescence : follow-up study

Objectives To determine whether twins in recent cohorts show similar academic performance in adolescence to singletons and to test the effect of birth weight on academic performance in twins and singletons. Design Follow-up study. Setting Denmark. Participants All twins (n = 3411) and a 5% random sample of singletons (n = 7796) born in Denmark during 1986-8. Main outcome measures Test scores in ninth grade (age 15 or 16), birth weight, gestational age at birth, parents’ age, and parents’ education. Results Ninth grade test scores were normally distributed, with almost identical mean and standard deviations for twins and singletons (8.02 v 8.02 and 1.05 v 1.06) despite the twins weighing on average 908 g (95% confidence interval 886 to 930 g) less than the singletons at birth. Controlling for birth weight, gestational age at birth, age at test, and parents’ age and education confirmed the similarity of test scores for twins and singletons (difference 0.04, 95% confidence interval − 0.03 to 0.10). A significant, positive association between test score and birth weight was observed in both twins and singletons, but the size of the effect was small: 0.06-0.12 standard deviations for every kilogram increase in birth weight. Conclusions Although older cohorts of twins have been found to have lower mean IQ scores than singletons, twins in recent Danish cohorts show similar academic performance in adolescence to that of singletons. Birth weight has a minimal effect on academic performance in recent cohorts; for twins this effect is best judged relative to what is a normal birth weight for twins and not for singletons

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data

Objectives: To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context.Setting: Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries.Participants: Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected.Primary and secondary outcome measures: The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls.Results: Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36?months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24?months after marriage.Conclusions: Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear—women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth

Antenatal corticosteroids-to-birth interval in preterm birth

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare short-term outcomes in children born between 24 and 34 weeks’ gestation, according to observed antenatal corticosteroids (ACS)-to-birth intervals. Research question: ‘Is there a difference in short-term outcomes between observed ACS-to-birth intervals across a range of gestational ages at birth?’ Methods: Cohort study assessing differences in incidence of short-term neonatal outcomes according to the observed interval between the last administration of ACS and birth. Linear, non-weighted GEE models with an independence working correlation structure were fitted to infant level data providing valid point estimates for either incidence or rate differences (binary outcomes) or average differences (continuous outcomes). Results: Of 886 children, 35.9% were born within 2 days after the last administration of ACS, 32.2% within 2 to 7 days, 14.1% within 8 to 14 days, and 17.8% more than 14 days after. Across gestational ages at birth, there were no differences in birth weight between children born at an ACS-to-birth interval of 7 days or less compared to more than 7 days, nor were there differences in respiratory outcomes, cerebral outcomes, or composite outcome. Conclusion: Drawing conclusions on the importance of the ACS-to-birth interval is difficult due to the post-hoc nature of the variable. In the absence of tools to better estimate if and when PTB will occur, it might not have any value in daily practice, regardless of whether there is an optimal ACS-to-birth interval or not

Birth Spacing and Neonatal Mortality in India: Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity

A dynamic panel data model of neonatal mortality and birth spacing is analyzed, accounting for causal effects of birth spacing on subsequent mortality and of mortality on the next birth interval, while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in mortality (frailty) and birth spacing (fecundity). The model is estimated using micro data on about 30000 children of 7000 Indian mothers, for whom a complete retrospective record of fertility and child mortality is available. Information on sterilization is used to identify an equation for completion of family formation that is needed to account for right-censoring in the data. We find clear evidence of frailty, fecundity, and causal effects of birth spacing on mortality and vice versa, but find that birth interval effects can explain only a limited share of the correlation between neonatal mortality of successive children in a family.fertility, birth spacing, childhood mortality, health, dynamic panel data models, siblings.

Survival and coexistence for a multitype contact process

We study the ergodic theory of a multitype contact process with equal death rates and unequal birth rates on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice and regular trees. We prove that for birth rates in a certain interval there is coexistence on the tree, which by a result of Neuhauser is not possible on the lattice. We also prove a complete convergence result when the larger birth rate falls outside of this interval.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP422 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia pulicaria. The populations were grown under constant conditions, but the initial age distributions and egg ratios of the populations varied. Actual death rates were virtually zero, so the difference between the estimated and actual death rates measured the error in both birth and death rate estimates. 3. The results demonstrate that unstable population structures may produce large errors in the birth and death rates estimated by any of these methods. Among the methods tested, Taylor and Slatkin's formula and Paloheimo's formula were most reliable for the experimental data. 4. Further analyses of three of the methods were made using computer simulations of growth of age-structured populations with initially unstable age distributions. These analyses show that the time interval between sampling strongly influences the reliability of birth and death rate estimates. At a sampling interval of 2.5 days (equal to the duration of the egg stage), Paloheimo's formula was most accurate. At longer intervals (7.5–10 days), Taylor and Slatkin's formula which includes information on population structure was most accurate

Demographic and Socio-economic Determinants of Birth Interval Dynamics in Manipur: A Survival Analysis

The birth interval is a major determinant of levels of fertility in high fertility populations. A house-to-house survey of 1225 women in Manipur, a tiny state in North Eastern India was carried out to investigate birth interval patterns and its determinants. Using survival analysis, among the nine explanatory variables of interest, only three factors – infant mortality, Lactation and use of contraceptive devices have highly significant effect (P<0.01) on the duration of birth interval and only three factors – age at marriage of wife, parity and sex of child are found to be significant (P<0.05) on the duration variable

Effects of the background radiation on radio pulsar and supernova remnant searches and the birth rates of these objects

In different directions of the Galaxy the Galactic background radio radiation and radiation of complex star formation regions which include large number of OB associations have different influences on radio pulsar (PSR) and supernova remnant (SNR) searches. In this work we analyse the effects of these background radiations on the observations of PSRs at 1400 MHz and SNRs at 1000 MHz. In the interval l=0$^o$$\pm60^o$ the PSRs with flux F$_{1400}$$>$0.2 mJy and the SNRs with surface brightness $\Sigma$$>10^{-21}$ Wm$^{-2}$Hz$^{-1}$sr$^{-1}$ are observable for all values of l and b. All the SNRs with $\Sigma$$>3\times10^{-22}$ Wm$^{-2}$Hz$^{-1}$sr$^{-1}$ can be observed in the interval 60$^o$$<$l$<300^o$. We have examined samples of PSRs and SNRs to estimate the birth rates of these objects in the region up to 3.2 kpc from the Sun and also in the Galaxy. The birth rate of PSRs is about one in 200 years and the birth rate of SNRs is about one in 65 years in our galaxy.Comment: revised versio

Birth Spacing, Child Survival and Fertility Decisions: Analysis of Causal Mechanismsa

Abstract: We jointly analyze infant mortality, birth spacing, and total fertility of children in a rural area in Bangladesh, using longitudinal data from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Matlab. To distinguish causal mechanisms from unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality, we use dynamic panel data techniques. We compare the results in a treatment area with extensive health services and a comparison area with standard health services. Simulations using the estimated models show how fertility and mortality can be reduced by, for example, breaking the causal link that leads to a short interval after a child has died. Eliminating this effect would reduce fertility and increase birth intervals, resulting in a fall in mortality by 0.14 and 2.45 per 1000 live births in treatment and comparison area, respectively. The effects of the numbers of (surviving) boys and girls on birth spacing provide evidence of son preference: having more boys has a stronger effect on the birth interval than having more girls, though both effects are significantly positive. A simulation suggests that if families would behave as if their all children were sons, fertility levels would be reduced by 3.5% and 5.7% in the ICDDR,B and comparison areas, respectively.child mortality;birth spacing;fertility;dynamic panel data models;Bangladesh