Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work

Experiences and lessons learned from the real-world implementation of an HIV recent infection testing algorithm in three routine service-delivery settings in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for recent HIV infection can distinguish recently acquired infection from long-standing infections. Given current interest in the implementation of recent infection testing algorithms (RITA), we report our experiences in implementing a RITA in three pilot studies and highlight important issues to consider when conducting recency testing in routine settings. METHODS: We applied a RITA, incorporating a limited antigen (LAg) avidity assay, in different routine HIV service-delivery settings in 2018: antenatal care clinics in Siaya County, Kenya, HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya, and female sex workers clinics in Zimbabwe. Discussions were conducted with study coordinators, laboratory leads, and facility-based stakeholders to evaluate experiences and lessons learned in relation to implementing recency testing. RESULTS: In Siaya County 10/426 (2.3%) of women testing HIV positive were classified as recent, compared to 46/530 (8.7%) of women and men in Nairobi and 33/313 (10.5%) of female sex workers in Zimbabwe. Across the study setting, we observed differences in acceptance, transport and storage of dried blood spot (DBS) or venous blood samples. For example, the acceptance rate when testing venous blood was 11% lower than when using DBS. Integrating our study into existing services ensured a quick start of the study and kept the amount of additional resources required low. From a laboratory perspective, the LAg avidity assay was initially difficult to operationalise, but developing a network of laboratories and experts to work together helped to improve this. A challenge that was not overcome was the returning of RITA test results to clients. This was due to delays in laboratory testing, the need for multiple test results to satisfy the RITA, difficulties in aligning clinic visits, and participants opting not to return for test results. CONCLUSION: We completed three pilot studies using HIV recency testing based on a RITA in Kenya and Zimbabwe. The main lessons we learned were related to sample collection and handling, LAg avidity assay performance, integration into existing services and returning of test results to participants. Our real-world experience could provide helpful guidance to people currently working on the implementation of HIV recency testing in sub-Saharan Africa

Can HIV recent infection surveillance help us better understand where primary prevention efforts should be targeted? Results of three pilots integrating a recent infection testing algorithm into routine programme activities in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Surveillance of recent HIV infections in national testing services has the potential to inform primary prevention programming activities. Focusing on procedures required to accurately determine recent infection, and the potential for recent infection surveillance to inform prevention efforts, we present the results of three independent but linked pilots of recency testing. METHODS: To distinguish recently acquired HIV infection from long-standing infection, in 2018 we applied a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm that combined a laboratory-based Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay with clinical information (viral-load; history of prior HIV diagnosis; antiretroviral therapy-exposure). We explored potential misclassification of test results and analysed the characteristics of participants with recent infection. We applied the algorithm in antenatal clinics providing prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Siaya County, Kenya, outreach sites serving female sex workers in Zimbabwe, and routine HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. In Nairobi, we also conducted recency testing among partners of HIV-positive participants. RESULTS: In Siaya County, 2.3% (10/426) of HIV-positive pregnant women were classified as recent. A risk factor analysis comparing women testing recent with those testing HIV-negative found women in their first trimester were significantly more likely to test recent than those in their second or third trimester. In Zimbabwe, 10.5% (33/313) of female sex workers testing HIV-positive through the outreach programme were classified recent. A risk factor analysis of women testing recent versus those testing HIV-negative, found no strong evidence of an association with recent infection. In Nairobi, among 532 HIV-positive women and men, 8.6% (46) were classified recent. Among partners of participants, almost a quarter of those who tested HIV-positive were classified as recent (23.8%; 5/21). In all three settings, the inclusion of clinical information helped improve the positive predictive value of recent infection testing by removing cases that were likely misclassified. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully identified recently acquired infections among persons testing HIV-positive in routine testing settings and highlight the importance of incorporating additional information to accurately classify recent infection. We identified a number of groups with a significantly higher proportion of recent infection, suggesting recent infection surveillance, when rolled-out nationally, may help in further targeting primary prevention efforts

Nutritional status in young children prior to the malaria transmission season in Burkina Faso and Mali, and its impact on the incidence of clinical malaria.

BACKGROUND: Malaria and malnutrition remain major problems in Sahel countries, especially in young children. The direct effect of malnutrition on malaria remains poorly understood, and may have important implications for malaria control. In this study, nutritional status and the association between malnutrition and subsequent incidence of symptomatic malaria were examined in children in Burkina Faso and Mali who received either azithromycin or placebo, alongside seasonal malaria chemoprevention. METHODS: Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was measured in all 20,185 children who attended a screening visit prior to the malaria transmission season in 2015. Prior to the 2016 malaria season, weight, height and MUAC were measured among 4149 randomly selected children. Height-for-age, weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and MUAC-for-age were calculated as indicators of nutritional status. Malaria incidence was measured during the following rainy seasons. Multivariable random effects Poisson models were created for each nutritional indicator to study the effect of malnutrition on clinical malaria incidence for each country. RESULTS: In both 2015 and 2016, nutritional status prior to the malaria season was poor. The most prevalent form of malnutrition in Burkina Faso was being underweight (30.5%; 95% CI 28.6-32.6), whereas in Mali stunting was most prevalent (27.5%; 95% CI 25.6-29.5). In 2016, clinical malaria incidence was 675 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 613-744) in Burkina Faso, and 1245 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 1152-1347) in Mali. There was some evidence that severe stunting was associated with lower incidence of malaria in Mali (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.64-1.02; p = 0.08), but this association was not seen in Burkina Faso. Being moderately underweight tended to be associated with higher incidence of clinical malaria in Burkina Faso (RR 1.27; 95% CI 0.98-1.64; p = 0.07), while this was the case in Mali for moderate wasting (RR 1.27; 95% CI 0.98-1.64; p = 0.07). However, these associations were not observed in severely affected children, nor consistent between countries. MUAC-for-age was not associated with malaria risk. CONCLUSIONS: Both malnutrition and malaria were common in the study areas, high despite high coverage of seasonal malaria chemoprevention and long-lasting insecticidal nets. However, no strong or consistent evidence was found for an association between any of the nutritional indicators and the subsequent incidence of clinical malaria

Understanding public support for COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures over time: Does it wear out?

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mitigation measures intend to protect public health, but their adverse psychological, social, and economic effects weaken public support. Less favorable trade-offs may especially weaken support for more restrictive measures. Support for mitigation measures may also differ between population subgroups who experience different benefits and costs, and decrease over time, a phenomenon termed "pandemic fatigue." METHODS: We examined self-reported support for COVID-19 mitigation measures in the Netherlands over 12 consecutives waves of data collection between April 2020 and May 2021 in an open population cohort study. Participants were recruited through community panels of the 25 regional public health services, and through links to the online surveys advertised on social media. The 54,010 unique participants in the cohort study on average participated in 4 waves of data collection. Most participants were female (65%), middle-aged [57% (40-69 years)], highly educated (57%), not living alone (84%), residing in an urban area (60%), and born in the Netherlands (95%). RESULTS: COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in the Netherlands remained generally well-supported over time [all scores >3 on 5-point scale ranging 1 (low)-5 (high)]. During the whole period studied, support was highest for personal hygiene measures, quarantine and wearing face masks, high but somewhat lower for not shaking hands, testing and self-isolation, and restricting social contacts, and lowest for limiting visitors at home, and not traveling abroad. Women and higher educated people were more supportive of some mitigation measures than men and lower educated people. Older people were more supportive of more restrictive measures than younger people, and support for more socially restrictive measures decreased most over time in higher educated people or in younger people. CONCLUSIONS: This study found no support for pandemic fatigue in terms of a gradual decline in support for all mitigation measures in the first year of the pandemic. Rather, findings suggest that support for mitigation measures reflects a balancing of benefits and cost, which may change over time, and differ between measures and population subgroups

Brief Report: Adolescent Girls Who Sell Sex in Zimbabwe: HIV Risk, Behaviours, and Service Engagement.

BACKGROUND: To reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls who sell sex (AGSS) in Zimbabwe, we need to better understand how vulnerabilities intersect with HIV infection and how those living with HIV engage in care. METHODS: In 2017, we conducted social mapping in 4 locations in Zimbabwe and recruited girls aged 16-19 years who sell sex, using respondent-driven sampling or census sampling methods. Participants completed a questionnaire and provided finger prick blood samples for HIV antibody testing. RESULTS: Of 605 AGSS recruited, 74.4% considered themselves sex workers, 24.4% reported experiencing violence in the past year, 91.7% were not in school, and 83.8% had less than a complete secondary education. Prevalence of HIV increased steeply from 2.1% among those aged 16 years to 26.9% among those aged 19 years; overall, 20.2% of AGSS were HIV-positive. In the multivariate analysis, age, education, marital status, and violence from a client were associated with HIV. Among the 605 AGSS, 86.3% had ever tested for HIV, with 64.1% having tested in the past 6 months. Among AGSS living with HIV, half (50.8%) were aware of their status, among whom 83.9% reported taking antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSION: The steep rise in HIV prevalence among those aged between 16 and 19 years suggests the window to engage with AGSS before HIV acquisition is short. To accelerate reductions in incidence among AGSS, intensified combination prevention strategies that address structural factors and tailor services to the needs of AGSS are required, particularly ensuring girls enroll and remain in school

GP involvement after a cancer diagnosis; patients' call to improve decision support

BACKGROUND: Shared decision making (SDM) is considered important to realise personalised cancer care. Increased GP involvement after a diagnosis is advocated to improve SDM. AIM: To explore whether patients with cancer are in need of GP involvement in cancer care in general and in SDM, and whether GP involvement occurs. DESIGN & SETTING: An online national survey was distributed by the Dutch Federation of Cancer Patient Organisations (NFK) in May 2019. METHOD: The survey was sent to (former) patients with cancer. Topics included GP involvement in cancer care in general and in SDM. Descriptive statistics and quotes were used. RESULTS: Among 4763 (former) patients with cancer, 59% (n = 2804) expressed a need for GP involvement in cancer care. Of these patients, 79% (n = 2193) experienced GP involvement. Regarding GP involvement in SDM, 82% of patients (n = 3724) expressed that the GP should 'listen to patients' worries and considerations', 69% (n = 3130) to 'check patients' understanding of information', 66% (n = 3006) to 'discuss patients' priorities in life and the consequences of treatment options for these priorities', and 67% (n = 3045) to 'create awareness of the patient's role in the decision making'. This happened in 47%, 17%, 15% and 10% of these patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: The majority of (former) patients with cancer expressed a need for active GP involvement in cancer care. GP support in the fundamental SDM steps is presently insufficient. Therefore, GPs should be made aware of these needs and enabled to support their patients with cancer in SDM

Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns by age and years since starting sex work among female sex workers in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS). DESIGN: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011-2017. METHODS: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence (Pt) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age (Pt-Pt-1). We then estimated the rate of new HIV infections during that year of age: It = Pt-Pt-1/(1-Pt-1), and calculated HIV incidence for 18-24 and 25-39 year-olds separately as the weighted average of It. We estimated HIV incidence for FSW 1-5 years and 6-15 years since first selling sex using the same approach, and compared HIV prevalence among FSW first selling sex at their current age with the general population. RESULTS: Among 9,906 women, 50.2% were HIV positive. Based on HIV prevalence increases by age, we estimated an HIV incidence of 6.3/100 person-years at risk (pyar) (95%CI 5.3,7.6) among 18-24 year-olds, and 3.3/100 pyar (95% CI 1.3,4.2) among 25-39 year-olds. Based on prevalence increases by YSSS, HIV incidence was 5.3/100 pyar (95% CI 4.3,8.5) between 1-5 years since first selling sex, and 2.1/100 pyar (95% CI -1.3, 7.2) between 6-15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is consistent with very high HIV incidence among FSW in Zimbabwe, especially among those who are young and recently started selling sex. There is a critical need to engage young entrants into sex work in interventions that reduce their HIV risk

Effect of adding azithromycin to the antimalarials used for seasonal malaria chemoprevention on the nutritional status of African children.

OBJECTIVES: Mass administration of azithromycin has reduced mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa but its mode of action is not well characterised. A recent trial found that azithromycin given alongside seasonal malaria chemoprevention was not associated with a reduction in mortality or hospital admissions in young children. We investigated the effect of azithromycin on the nutritional status of children enrolled in this study. METHODS: A total of 19 578 children in Burkina Faso and Mali were randomised to receive either azithromycin or placebo alongside seasonal malaria chemoprevention with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine monthly for three malaria transmission seasons (2014-2016). After each transmission season, anthropometric measurements were collected from approximately 4000 randomly selected children (2000 per country) at a cross-sectional survey and used to derive nutritional status indicators. Binary and continuous outcomes between treatment arms were compared by Poisson and linear regression. RESULTS: Nutritional status among children was poor in both countries with evidence of acute and chronic malnutrition (24.9-33.3% stunted, 15.8-32.0% underweight, 7.2-26.4% wasted). There was a suggestion of improvement in nutritional status in Burkina Faso and deterioration in Mali over the study period. At the end of each malaria transmission season, nutritional status of children did not differ between treatment arms (seasonal malaria chemoprevention plus azithromycin or placebo) in either the intention-to-treat or per-protocol analyses (only children with at least three cycles of SMC in the current intervention year). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of azithromycin to seasonal malaria chemoprevention did not result in an improvement of nutritional outcomes in children in Burkina Faso and Mali