Optimal Liquidity Management and Hedging in the presence of a non predictable investment opportunity

In this paper, we develop a dynamic model that captures the interaction between the cash reserves, the risk management policy and the profitability of a non-predictable irreversible investment opportunity. We consider a firm that has assets in place generating a stochastic cash- ow stream. The firm has a non-predictable growth opportunity to expand its operation size by paying a sunk cost. When the opportunity is available, the firm can finance it either by cash or by costly equity issuance. We provide an explicit characterization of the firm strategy in terms of investment, hedging, equity issuance and dividend distribution.

Numerical approximation of a cash-constrained firm value with investment opportunities

We consider a singular control problem with regime switching that arises in problems of optimal investment decisions of cash-constrained firms. The value function is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Moreover, we give regularity properties of the value function as well as a description of the shape of the control regions. Based on these theoretical results, a numerical deterministic approximation of the related HJB variational inequality is provided. We finally show that this numerical approximation converges to the value function. This allows us to describe the investment and dividend optimal policies.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

On finite-time ruin probabilities with reinsurance cycles influenced by large claims

Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process : a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. As this model needs the claim amounts to be Phase-type distributed, we explain how to fit mixtures of Erlang distributions to long-tailed distributions. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.

Certification of inequalities involving transcendental functions: combining SDP and max-plus approximation

We consider the problem of certifying an inequality of the form $f(x)\geq 0$, $\forall x\in K$, where $f$ is a multivariate transcendental function, and $K$ is a compact semialgebraic set. We introduce a certification method, combining semialgebraic optimization and max-plus approximation. We assume that $f$ is given by a syntaxic tree, the constituents of which involve semialgebraic operations as well as some transcendental functions like $\cos$, $\sin$, $\exp$, etc. We bound some of these constituents by suprema or infima of quadratic forms (max-plus approximation method, initially introduced in optimal control), leading to semialgebraic optimization problems which we solve by semidefinite relaxations. The max-plus approximation is iteratively refined and combined with branch and bound techniques to reduce the relaxation gap. Illustrative examples of application of this algorithm are provided, explaining how we solved tight inequalities issued from the Flyspeck project (one of the main purposes of which is to certify numerical inequalities used in the proof of the Kepler conjecture by Thomas Hales).Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables, Appears in the Proceedings of the European Control Conference ECC'13, July 17-19, 2013, Zurich, pp. 2244--2250, copyright EUCA 201

Certification of Real Inequalities -- Templates and Sums of Squares

We consider the problem of certifying lower bounds for real-valued multivariate transcendental functions. The functions we are dealing with are nonlinear and involve semialgebraic operations as well as some transcendental functions like $\cos$, $\arctan$, $\exp$, etc. Our general framework is to use different approximation methods to relax the original problem into polynomial optimization problems, which we solve by sparse sums of squares relaxations. In particular, we combine the ideas of the maxplus estimators (originally introduced in optimal control) and of the linear templates (originally introduced in static analysis by abstract interpretation). The nonlinear templates control the complexity of the semialgebraic relaxations at the price of coarsening the maxplus approximations. In that way, we arrive at a new - template based - certified global optimization method, which exploits both the precision of sums of squares relaxations and the scalability of abstraction methods. We analyze the performance of the method on problems from the global optimization literature, as well as medium-size inequalities issued from the Flyspeck project.Comment: 27 pages, 3 figures, 4 table

Formal Proofs for Nonlinear Optimization

We present a formally verified global optimization framework. Given a semialgebraic or transcendental function $f$ and a compact semialgebraic domain $K$, we use the nonlinear maxplus template approximation algorithm to provide a certified lower bound of $f$ over $K$. This method allows to bound in a modular way some of the constituents of $f$ by suprema of quadratic forms with a well chosen curvature. Thus, we reduce the initial goal to a hierarchy of semialgebraic optimization problems, solved by sums of squares relaxations. Our implementation tool interleaves semialgebraic approximations with sums of squares witnesses to form certificates. It is interfaced with Coq and thus benefits from the trusted arithmetic available inside the proof assistant. This feature is used to produce, from the certificates, both valid underestimators and lower bounds for each approximated constituent. The application range for such a tool is widespread; for instance Hales' proof of Kepler's conjecture yields thousands of multivariate transcendental inequalities. We illustrate the performance of our formal framework on some of these inequalities as well as on examples from the global optimization literature.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures, 3 table

Tropicalizing the simplex algorithm

We develop a tropical analog of the simplex algorithm for linear programming. In particular, we obtain a combinatorial algorithm to perform one tropical pivoting step, including the computation of reduced costs, in O(n(m+n)) time, where m is the number of constraints and n is the dimension.Comment: v1: 35 pages, 7 figures, 4 algorithms; v2: improved presentation, 39 pages, 9 figures, 4 algorithm

Surrender triggers in life insurance: classification and risk predictions

This paper shows that some policy features are crucial to explain the decision of the policyholder to surrender her contract. We point it out by applying two segmentation models to a life insurance portfolio: the Logistic Regression model and the Classification And Regression Trees model. Protection as well as Savings lines of business are impacted, and results clearly explicit that the profit benefit option is highly discrimi- nant. We develop the study with endowment products. First we present the models and discuss their assumptions and limits. Then we test different policy features and policyholder's characteristics to be lapse triggers so as to segment a portfolio in risk classes regarding the surrender choice : duration and profit benefit option are essential. Finally, we explore the main dfferences of both models in terms of operational results.