Good practices for surplus production models

Surplus production models (SPMs) have a long history in fisheries ecology and are important for the assessment and management of marine species and stocks. However, the implementation, application, and usage of these models vary across regions and case studies. Good practice guidelines can streamline modelling workflows, inform the acceptance or rejection of an assessment, and facilitate the derivation of management advice from accepted assessments. This paper discusses current practices in the application of SPMs and proposes good practice guidelines for their use in stock assessment. We complement our recommendations with results from a simulation study examining the performance of an age-based operating model and a SPM assessment model under 60 scenarios with various assumptions regarding data quantity, quality, and model priors. We provide specific good practice guidelines for two widely used state-space SPMs: SPiCT and JABBA. Finally, we discuss current limitations and suggest avenues for future developments for SPMs

Post-impoundment population dynamics of non-native common carp Cyprinus Carpio in relation to two large native cyprinids in Lake Gariep, South Africa

To contribute to the understanding of the invasion biology of common carp Cyprinus carpio in southern Africa, this thesis investigated the life history, relative abundance, long-term population demographics and trophic niche utilisations of non-native common carp C. carpio in relation to two endemic cyprinids, Orange River mudfish Labeo capensis and smallmouth yellowfish Labeobarbus aeneus in South Africa‟s largest impoundment, Lake Gariep. The growth zone deposition rates in astericus otoliths of the three species were validated as biannual for C. carpio and as annual for L. capensis and L. aeneus, which allowed for reliable estimation of lengths-at-age upon which growth, age-at-maturity and mortality rates could be estimated. Cyprinus carpio exhibited fast growth, matured relatively early at two years of age and attained a maximum age of seven years. Labeo capensis grew significantly slower, but attained older ages of up to 12 years. Females showed notably delayed maturation at approximately six years of age. The life history parameter estimates for L. aeneus were similar to those of L. capensis. These species-specific life history characteristics contributed to a substantially higher population growth potential of C. carpio compared to L. capensis and L. aeneus. Delta-lognormal and delta-gamma Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to analyse patterns of relative abundance of L. capensis, L. aeneus and C. carpio. The application of these GLMs was necessary to account for large proportions of zeros and strong skewness in the catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) from experimental gillnet and fisheries-dependent angler surveys. Confidence intervals around predicted abundance indices were obtained through the development of a generalised parametric bootstrap procedure. The resulting standardised abundance indices were coupled with results from analysis of stable isotope ratios of fish tissues and potential food resources and revealed that C. carpio was mainly confined to soft-bottom habitats, where it predominantly foraged on benthic invertebrates. Labeo capensis was abundant in a wide range of benthic habitats and was consumed basal food resources such as detritus. Labeobarbus aeneus was found to feed mostly on pelagic zooplankton. There were no significant interspecific differences in trophic niche space, suggesting limited resource competition among the three species. Standardised historical and contemporary gillnet CPUE data indicated slow population growth rates of L. capensis and L. aeneus during the first ten years postimpoundment, but showed high biomass levels some four decades after impoundment. These results could be corroborated by stochastic age-structured production model (ASPM) simulations. In contrast to the two endemic species, the gillnet CPUE of C. carpio showed a clear „boom and bust‟ pattern, which, based on ASPM simulations, could be best explained by increased food availability during the first five years postimpoundment, followed by suboptimal conditions thereafter. Together, these results provided evidence that the establishment of the C. carpio population did not prevent the slow but successful long-term establishment of the two large endemic cyprinids. Both endemic fishes revealed specialised feeding within the impoundment

User Guide for CMSY++

CMSY++ is an advanced state-space Bayesian method for stock assessment that estimates fisheries reference points (MSY, Fmsy, Bmsy) as well as status or relative stock size (B/Bmsy) and fishing pressure or exploitation (F/Fmsy) from catch and (optionally) abundance data, a prior for resilience or productivity (r), and broad priors for the ratio of biomass to unfished biomass (B/k) at the beginning, an intermediate year, and the end of the time series. For the purpose of this User Guide, the whole package is referred to as CMSY++ whereas the part of the method that deals with catch-only data is referred to as CMSY (catch MSY), and the part of the method that requires additional abundance data is referred to as BSM (Bayesian Schaefer Model). Both methods are based on a modified Schaefer surplus production model (see paper cited above for more details). The main advantage of BSM, compared to other implementations of surplus production models, is the focus on informative priors and the acceptance of short and incomplete (i.e., fragmented, with missing years) abundance data. This document provides a simple step-by-step guide for researchers who want to apply CMSY++ to their own data

Sensory drive mediated by climatic gradients partially explains divergence in acoustic signals in two horseshoe bat species, Rhinolophus swinnyi and Rhinolophus simulator

Geographic variation can be an indicator of still poorly understood evolutionary processes such as adaptation and drift. Sensory systems used in communication play a key role in mate choice and species recognition. Habitat-mediated (i.e. adaptive) differences in communication signals may therefore lead to diversification. We investigated geographic variation in echolocation calls of African horseshoe bats, Rhinolophus simulator and R . swinnyi in the context of two adaptive hypotheses: 1) James' Rule and 2) the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. According to James' Rule body-size should vary in response to relative humidity and temperature so that divergence in call frequency may therefore be the result of climate-mediated variation in body size because of the correlation between body size and call frequency. The Sensory Drive Hypothesis proposes that call frequency is a response to climate-induced differences in atmospheric attenuation and predicts that increases in atmospheric attenuation selects for calls of lower frequency. We measured the morphology and resting call frequency (RF) of 111 R . simulator and 126 R . swinnyi individuals across their distributional range to test the above hypotheses. Contrary to the prediction of James' Rule, divergence in body size could not explain the variation in RF. Instead, acoustic divergence in RF was best predicted by latitude, geography and climate-induced differences in atmospheric attenuation, as predicted by the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. Although variation in RF was strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, other climatic variables (associated with latitude and altitude) as well as drift (as suggested by a positive correlation between call variation and geographic distance, especially in R . simulator ) may also play an important role

Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members' forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the realized outcome. This paper proposes a new approach to forecast evaluation that takes account of the interval nature of projections. It is shown that using the conventional Mincer-Zarnowitz approach to evaluate FOMC forecasts misses important information contained in the width of the forecast interval. This additional information plays a minor role at short forecast horizons but turns out to be of crucial importance for inflation and unemployment forecasts 18 months into the future. At long horizons the variation of members' projections contains information which is more relevant for explaining future inflation than information embodied in the midpoint

Who uses the fishery resources in South Africa’s largest impoundment? Characterising subsistence and recreational fishing sectors on Lake Gariep

The African Union’s prioritisation of inland fisheries as an investment area for poverty alleviation and regional economic development will require the development of management plans. These should be based on sound knowledge of the social dynamics of the resource users. In South Africa the social dynamics of resource users of inland fisheries have never been assessed. The purpose of this study was to assess the human dimensions of the anglers utilising the fishery in Lake Gariep, South Africa’s largest impoundment. The study was based on 357 first-time interviews conducted on the lakeshore between October 2006 and December 2007. Anglers were categorised as recreational (39%) or subsistence (61%) based on their residency, occupation, primary motivation for angling, mode of transport and gear use. Subsistence anglers were local (99%), residing within 10 km of the place where they were interviewed, while recreational anglers included both local resident and non-resident members. The racial composition of anglers was dependent on user group and differed significantly (p ≤ 0.05) from the demographic composition of the regional population. Recreational anglers were predominantly White (≥ 60% of interviews) and Coloured (≥ 25%), while 84% of subsistence anglers were Coloured and 16% Black African. Most recreational anglers had permanent employment or were pensioners while <30% of subsistence anglers were permanently employed. Most recreational users (82%) accessed the lake with their own vehicle while subsistence anglers mainly walked (63%) or used a bicycle (28%). Recreational interviewees either consumed (59%), sold (11%), gave away (10%) or released (20%) some of their catch. Subsistence anglers either ate their catch (53%) and/or sold (41%) their catch. Within the subsistence sector no anglers released fish after capture or gave some of the catch away. We conclude that this inland fishery contributes to the livelihood of the rural poor who use the lake on a subsistence basis and that recreational-angler based tourism may contribute to increased income and employment opportunities through related service industries

How can we minimize the impact of fishing?

How many times do you think you have eaten fish this year? Fish is delicious and it’s really good for you, but we need to make sure that we don’t over-fish our seas and oceans (Fig. 1). That way there are enough fish left to feed us for all the years to come. We propose three simple rules for fisheries management, which would reduce the impact of fishing on the major fish species. The rules would also help to rebalance the ecosystems and reduce the damage that fishing causes when boats scrape their nets over the seabed to catch fish

Density-dependent changes in effective area occupied for sea-bottom-associated marine fishes

The spatial distribution of marine fishes can change for many reasons including density-dependent distributional shifts. Previous studies show mixed support for either the proportional-density model, PDM (no relationship between abundance and area occupied, supported by ideal-free distribution theory) or the basin model, BM (positive abundance–area relationship, supported by density-dependent habitat selection theory). The BM implies that fishes move towards preferred habitat as the population declines. We estimate the average relationship using bottom trawl data for 92 fish species from six marine regions, to determine whether the BM or PDM provides a better description for sea-bottom-associated fishes. We fit a spatio-temporal model and estimate changes in effective area occupied and abundance, and combine results to estimate the average abundance–area relationship as well as variability among taxa and regions. The average relationship is weak but significant (0.6% increase in area for a 10% increase in abundance), whereas only a small proportion of species–region combinations show a negative relationship (i.e. shrinking area when abundance increases). Approximately one-third of combinations (34.6%) are predicted to increase in area more than 1% for every 10% increase in abundance. We therefore infer that population density generally changes faster than effective area occupied during abundance changes. Gadiforms have the strongest estimated relationship (average 1.0% area increase for every 10% abundance increase) followed by Pleuronectiformes and Scorpaeniformes, and the Eastern Bering Sea shows a strong relationship between abundance and area occupied relative to other regions. We conclude that the BM explains a small but important portion of spatial dynamics for sea-bottom-associated fishes, and that many individual populations merit cautious management during population declines, because a compressed range may increase the efficiency of harvest

Quantifying the annual fish harvest from South Africa’s largest freshwater reservoir

South African inland fisheries are poorly developed and their contribution to near-shore communities is poorly understood. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of recreational and subsistence angling undertaken in an inland fishery in South Africa. The study was conducted on the 360 km2 Lake Gariep, South Africa’s largest freshwater reservoir. A total of 508 anglers were interviewed between February 2007 and January 2008. Of those interviewed, 67% were subsistence anglers and 33% recreational anglers. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) did not differ significantly between sectors. CPUE fluctuated seasonally, ranging between 0.37 (95% CI= 0.26 to 0.51) kg·angler-1·h-1 in winter and 0.88 (0.67 to 1.17) kg·angler- 1·h-1 in summer. The duration of a fishing day ranged from 5.99 (5.24 to 6.74) h in mid-winter to 7.26 (6.88 to 7.63) h in early summer. Expected end-of-day catch (CPUE × fishing-trip duration) ranged from 2.2 to 6.4 kg·angler-1·d-1 depending on the season. The number of anglers ranged from 22 (8 to 53) anglers·d-1 in June/July to 74 (25 to 176) anglers·d-1 in April. Total annual catch from the roving creel survey was estimated at 71.4 (57.4 to 91.4) t·yr-1. Another 7.5 t∙yr-1 were landed during recreational angling competitions. The resultant total catch divided by the lakeshore population equated to a per capita fish supply of 11.1 kg·yr-1. More than 70% of the catch was the alien invasive carp Cyprinus carpio and there was no evidence of overfishing. The fish resource of Lake Gariep is of significant recreational and subsistence value. As a result of the low fish price (ZAR5.72 ± 2.60·kg-1) subsistence fishing was considered a low-revenue activity that mainly augmented food security in lakeshore communities. The relatively high CPUE indicated that the fishery may be an important safety-net during periods when alternate sources of livelihoods are limited. Consequently, we recommend that the importance of angling to local communities needs to be taken into account when planning fisheries development and developing an inland fisheries polic