Results from the USAF Boundary Layer Technology Demonstration

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First Quarter 2018: Introducing Our Gateway Cities Index

Hotels in gateway cities have outperformed hotels in non-gateway cities, with hotels in gateway locations rising 10 percent in the past year, compared to 6 percent for those in non-gateway cities. Hotel operating performance scaled by price is still in the black based on economic value analysis (EVA), with returns continuing to exceed borrowing costs (for debt). Transaction volume strengthened both on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis. While our various pricing metrics point to continued positive price momentum for larger hotels at the expense of smaller hotels, we are concerned whether rising interest rates will put a damper on this momentum. A reading of our tea leaves suggests prices will continue to increase, but at a decelerating rate. This is report number 26 of the index series. Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL) We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report which is available for download from http://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/creftools/1

First Quarter 2017: Status Quo Maintained

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric indicates that the price momentum of large and small hotels continues to revert to the mean, with the cost of debt financing for hotels declining slightly. However, we expect higher hotel financing costs going forward. Our early warning indicators suggest that prices of large hotels and small hotels should rise during the second quarter of 2017. This is report number 22 of the index series. Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL) We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report which is available for download from http://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/creftools/1

Second Quarter 2016: Slowdown for Large Hotels Continues; Small Hotels Have Now Slowed as Well

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continues to show a decline in the price of large hotels, and now also the price of small hotels has eased—even though hotel transaction volume has increased. Although debt and equity financing for hotels remain relatively inexpensive, we are concerned that the total volatility of hotel returns is greater relative to the return volatility for other commercial real estate. If this trend continues, lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards. Our early warning indicators all continue to suggest that the downward trend in hotel prices should continue into the next quarter. This is report number 19 of the index series

Second Quarter 2019: Gradual Hotel Slowdown: Has the Party Ended?

In this issue, we introduce our new regional indices of hotel performance. Based on these indices, hotels in the Midwest and Mountain regions (mostly hotels in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada) have outperformed other regions, while hotels in the Pacific region (primarily California) and South Atlantic region (mostly Florida) have grown at a more moderate pace in the post-recession era. The performance of hotels in gateway cities declined this quarter, narrowing the gap in performance relative to hotels in non-gateway cities. Hotel financial performance overall is now in the red zone: operating profit stands below a hotel property’s borrowing cost based on economic value analysis (EVA). The price performance of small hotels and repeat sale hotels has reversed course and has started to weaken, while larger hotels continued their downward price spiral. The cost of hotel debt financing and equity financing have declined, with no change in the relative risk premium for hotels. However, the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 3-month bond is now in negative territory, which might affect market liquidity as well as contribute to slower price growth in hotels. A reading of our tea leaves suggests prices are expected to decline for both large and small hotels. This is report number 31 of the index series

Fourth Quarter 2019: 2019 Ends on a Whimper

Onlyhotels in the New England region, and to a lesser extent the Midwest region, experienced a positive price momentum this quarter, although both regions suffered poor performance from a year-over-year perspective. Hotels located in gateway cities outperformed hotels in non-gateway cities. Hotel financial operating performance continued to post positive profit with operating profit exceeding both a hotel property’s operating costs and its financial (borrowing) cost based on economic value analysis (EVA). Although the price of large hotels increased in the fourth quarter (as compared to quarter three), the price of small hotels declined quarter to quarter, and the price of both large and small hotels fell on a year-over-year basis. It appears that the price of both types of hotels is reverting to their moving average. The cost of hotel debt financing remained flat this quarter, while the cost of equity financing declined. In terms of risk premiums, there was no change in the risk premium for hotels compared to the risk-free rate. Besides this, the relative risk premium that lenders require for hotels over and above other commercial real estate has narrowed, indicating that lenders aren’t demanding a higher compensation for originating hotel loans. However, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 3-month Treasury was flat in the current period, which continues to raise concerns over its impact on market liquidity as well as its contribution to slower price growth in hotels. A reading of our tea leaves suggests that large hotels should be expected to decline in price. In contrast, the price of smaller hotels is anticipated to rise. This is report number 33 of the index series

Third Quarter 2019: Is Bad News Fake News?

Only hotels in the South Atlantic region experienced a positive price momentum during this period.* The performance of hotels in non-gateway cities declined at a faster rate relative to those in gateway cities. Hotel financial operating performance has finally returned to positive profitability with operating profit exceeding both a hotel property’s operating costs as well as financial (borrowing) cost, based on economic value analysis (EVA). The price of larger hotels has spiraled downward at a faster rate than that of smaller hotels and repeat sale hotels. The cost of hotel debt financing, as well as equity financing, has declined, with virtually no change in the relative risk premium for hotels. However, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 3-month Treasury has fallen even further into negative territory, which continues to raise concerns over its impact on market liquidity as well as its contribution to slower price growth in hotels (since this is a recession indicator). A reading of our tea leaves suggests prices are expected to decline for both large and small hotels. This is report number 32 of the index series

First Quarter 2020: Gird Your Loins

Hotels in all regions experienced negative price momentum this quarter with hotels in the New England area having the worst price performance. Hotels located in gateway cities were especially hard hit. Hotel financial operating performance based on economic value analysis (EVA) has turned negative, indicating that hotel returns are coming primarily from future price appreciation. The prices of large and small hotels have both trended downwards toward their long run average from the perspective of our moving average trendlines and standardized unexpected price performance metrics. The cost of hotel debt financing has fallen this quarter while the cost of equity financing has increased, making it costlier to borrow equity capital. In terms of risk premiums, the risk premium for hotels has risen compared to the risk-free rate. Besides this, the relative risk premium that lenders require for hotels over and above other commercial real estate has also increased, indicating that lenders are demanding a higher compensation for originating hotel loans. A reading of our tea leaves suggests that both large and small hotels are expected to decline in price. This is report number 34 of the index series

Second Quarter 2017: Positive Momentum Continues: A New Price High Reached

Our moving average trendlines, supported by our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) performance metrics, indicate not only positive price momentum but also that a statistically significant new high has been reached this quarter. Forward looking indicators suggest that this momentum should continue into the next quarter. Further good news is that lenders are not demanding higher compensation for risk associated with hotel loans relative to other commercial real estate loans. However, the total risk of hotel REITs relative to the total risk of equity REITs as a whole continues to rise. This means that lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards or demand more compensation for risk in terms of higher interest rates for hotel loans. This is report number 23 of the index series. Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL) We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report which is available for download from http://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/creftools/1

Fourth Quarter 2016: Hotels Are Getting Costlier to Finance

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continued to show positive momentum in the price of large hotels with continued decline in the price of small hotels. Costlier financing for hotels is occurring due in part to lenders’ perceptions of the increasing relative riskiness of hotels compared to other commercial real estate. We expect higher hotel financing costs going forward. Our early warning indicators suggest that prices of large hotels and small hotels should rise during the first quarter of 2017. This is report number 21 of the index series. Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL) We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report which is available for download from http://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/creftools/1