Bringing the Copenhagen Global Climate Change Negotiations to Conclusion

In this paper we discuss the global negotiations now underway and aimed at achieving new climate change mitigation and other arrangements after 2012 (the end of the Kyoto commitment period). These were initiated in Bali in December 2007 and are scheduled to conclude by the end of 2009 in Copenhagen. As such, this negotiation is effectively the second round in ongoing global negotiations on climate change and further rounds will almost certainly follow. We highlight both the vast scope and vagueness of the negotiating mandate, the many outstanding major issues to be accommodated between negotiating parties, the lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation, and their short time frame. The likely lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries (some to a major degree), the effective absence in Kyoto of compliance/enforcement mechanisms, and growing linkage to non-climate change areas (principally trade) all further complicate the task of bringing the negotiation to conclusion. The major clearage we see that needs to be bridged in the negotiations is between OECD countries on the one hand, and lower wage, large population, rapidly growing countries (China, India, Russia, Brazil) on the other.climate change, global negotiation

Linking External Sector Imbalances and Changing Financial Instability before the 2008 Financial Crisis

The G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth builds on the claim that growing imbalances before the 2008 Financial Crisis were a major cause of the crisis, and the further claim that reducing imbalances post crisis must be a central part of any effort to prevent a further occurrence. Analytical literature in economics seemingly does not provide satisfactory measures of financial instability, either in individual national economies or in the combined global economy; nor ways of linking imbalance change to either worsening or improving financial (or real) instability and the onset of financial crises. Here we focus on the external sector component of financial instability and link changes in country imbalances to individual economy growth rates in ways when summed across countries produce indices of expected worsening or improving financial instability at different points in time. We compute a variety of such indices for the years immediately before the 2008 Financial Crisis. We use the sum of the absolute value of external sector imbalances across countries (the trade imbalance, or the current account imbalance) as a proportion of the combined GDP of countries and link them in various ways to country growth rates. An increasing measure under an index is an indication of future widening excess demands and supplies over all countries as a group relative to gross world product. This, in turn, is an indication of increasing severity of adjustment problems ahead, and hence expected worsening financial instability. We compute such indices for all G20 countries, and various subsets of countries (G2, G8, G8+5) and examine their behavior over the period 2004-2007. Our results suggest that depending upon the index used and the base date chosen for comparative purposes in determining changes, different implications emerge for the linkage between external sector imbalances, perceived future instability and hence the onset of a financial crisis. The implication we drawn is that the links between imbalances and both the onset and best policy response to the 2008 Financial Crisis asserted by the G20 may be more tenuous than claimed. Indeed no such links were suggested earlier for the 1930s, the Asian Financial Crisis or any other crisis. In turn economies have functioned with larger imbalances relative to GDP than in 2008 for considerable periods of time and with no financial implosion (UK in the pre World War I period; Germany and Australia in the 1990s).

Unilateral measures and global emissions mitigation

In this paper we discuss global climate change mitigation that builds on existing unilateral actions to deliver ever deepening emission cuts over time. A wide array of unilateral environmental measures have been documented. We discuss the rationale for such measures and argue that unilateral initiatives have the potential to generate positive spillover e¤ects both within and across countries. Using a simple dynamic model of learning, we show how global negotiations can accelerate convergence to a global low emissions regime by building on and strengthening the positive spillovers inherent in unilateral initiatives

Unilateral Measures and Emissions Mitigation

We discuss global climate mitigation that builds on existing unilateral measures to cut emissions. We document and discuss the rationale for such unilateral measures argue that such measures have the potential to generate positive spillover effects both within and across countries. In a simple dynamic model of learning we show that while single countries on their own may never get to the point of switching completely to low emission activities, a learning process with positive spillovers across nations is more likely to deliver a global switch to low emissions. We discuss the key features of a new global Intellectual Property (IP) regime that builds on the positive spillovers inherent in unilateral initiatives and accelerates global convergence to low emissions.

Unilateral Emissions Mitigation, Spillovers, and Global Learning

What's the role of unilateral measures in global climate change mitigation in a post-Durban, post 2012 global policy regime? We argue that under conditions of preference heterogeneity, unilateral emissions mitigation at a subnational level may exist even when a nation is unwilling to commit to emission cuts. We establish that under certain assumptions, in a global strongly connected network of countries, learning the costs of switching to a low emissions activity can result in a universal adoption of such activities. We analyze the features of a policy proposal that could accelerate convergence to a low carbon world in the presence of global learning

A spontaneous increase in intracellular Ca2+ in metaphase II human oocytes in vitro can be prevented by drugs targeting ATP-sensitive K+ channels

STUDY QUESTION: Could drugs targeting ATP-sensitive K+ (KATP) channels prevent any spontaneous increase in intracellular Ca2+ that may occur in human metaphase II (MII) oocytes under in vitro conditions? SUMMARY ANSWER: Pinacidil, a KATP channel opener, and glibenclamide, a KATP channel blocker, prevent a spontaneous increase in intracellular Ca2+ in human MII oocytes. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The quality of the oocyte and maintenance of this quality during in vitro processing in the assisted reproductive technology (ART) laboratory is of critical importance to successful embryo development and a healthy live birth. Maintenance of Ca2+ homeostasis is crucial for cell wellbeing and increased intracellular Ca2+ levels is a well-established indicator of cell stress. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Supernumerary human oocytes (n = 102) collected during IVF/ICSI treatment that failed to fertilize were used from October 2013 to July 2015. All experiments were performed on mature (MII) oocytes. Dynamics of intracellular Ca2+ levels were monitored in oocytes in the following experimental groups: (i) Control, (ii) Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO; used to dissolve pinacidil, glibenclamide and 2,4-Dinitrophenol (DNP)), (iii) Pinacidil, (iv) Glibenclamide, (v) DNP: an inhibitor of oxidative phosphorylation, (vi) Pinacidil and DNP and (vii) Glibenclamide and DNP. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS/SETTINGS/METHODS: Oocytes were collected under sedation as part of routine treatment at an assisted conception unit from healthy women (mean ± SD) age 34.1 ± 0.6 years, n = 41. Those surplus to clinical use were donated for research. Oocytes were loaded with Fluo-3 Ca2+-sensitive dye, and monitored by laser confocal microscopy for 2 h at 10 min intervals. Time between oocyte collection and start of Ca2+ monitoring was 80.4 ± 2.1 h. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Intracellular levels of Ca2+ increased under in vitro conditions with no deliberate challenge, as shown by Fluo-3 fluorescence increasing from 61.0 ± 11.8 AU (AU = arbitrary units; n = 23) to 91.8 ± 14.0 AU (n = 19; P <0.001) after 2 h of monitoring. Pinacidil (100 µM) inhibited this increase in Ca2+ (85.3 ± 12.3 AU at the beginning of the experiment, 81.7 ± 11.0 AU at the end of the experiment; n = 13; P = 0.616). Glibenclamide (100 µM) also inhibited the increase in Ca2+ (74.7 ± 10.6 AU at the beginning and 71.8 ± 10.9 AU at the end of the experiment; n = 13; P = 0.851. DNP (100 mM) induced an increase in intracellular Ca2+ that was inhibited by glibenclamide (100 µM; n = 9) but not by pinacidil (100 µM; n = 5). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Owing to clinical and ethical considerations, it was not possible to monitor Ca2+ in MII oocytes immediately after retrieval. MII oocytes were available for our experimentation only after unsuccessful IVF or ICSI, which was, on average, 80.4 ± 2.1 h (n = 102 oocytes) after the moment of retrieval. As the MII oocytes used here were those that were not successfully fertilized, it is possible that they may have been abnormal with impaired Ca2+ homeostasis and, furthermore, the altered Ca2+ homeostasis might have been associated solely with the protracted incubation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: These results show that maintenance of oocytes under in vitro conditions is associated with intracellular increase in Ca2+, which can be counteracted by drugs targeting KATP channels. As Ca2+ homeostasis is crucial for contributing to a successful outcome of ART, these results suggest that KATP channel openers and blockers should be tested as drugs for improving success rates of ART

Anomaly Detection Using Autoencoder Reconstruction upon Industrial Motors

Rotary machine breakdown detection systems are outdated and dependent upon routine testing to discover faults. This is costly and often reactive in nature. Real-time monitoring offers a solution for detecting faults without the need for manual observation. However, manual interpretation for threshold anomaly detection is often subjective and varies between industrial experts. This approach is ridged and prone to a large number of false positives. To address this issue, we propose a machine learning (ML) approach to model normal working operations and detect anomalies. The approach extracts key features from signals representing a known normal operation to model machine behaviour and automatically identify anomalies. The ML learns generalisations and generates thresholds based on fault severity. This provides engineers with a traffic light system where green is normal behaviour, amber is worrying and red signifies a machine fault. This scale allows engineers to undertake early intervention measures at the appropriate time. The approach is evaluated on windowed real machine sensor data to observe normal and abnormal behaviour. The results demonstrate that it is possible to detect anomalies within the amber range and raise alarms before machine failure