Dynamically Triggered Changes of Plate Interface Coupling in Southern Cascadia

In subduction zones, frictional locking on the subduction interface produces year-by-year surface deformation that is measurable with GPS. During the interseismic period of the earthquake cycle, lasting hundreds of years between major earthquakes, these ground motions are usually constant with time because the locking on the plate interface is relatively unchanging. However, at the Mendocino Triple Junction in Northern California, we find evidence for slight changes in GPS interseismic motion within the last decade that challenge the assumption of constant interseismic deformation. Our results suggest changes in interseismic coupling on the southernmost Cascadia Subduction Zone. Interestingly, these coupling changes appear to be related to large offshore earthquakes and are perhaps triggered by the seismic shaking during those events. These results have important implications for our understanding of seismic hazard in subduction zones.National Science Foundation (NSF). Grant Number: EAR-1841371NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program and NSF. Grant Number: OCE-1905098NSF Cooperative Agreement. Grant Number: EAR-073515

Cascadia Subduction Tremor muted by crustal faults

Deep, episodic slow slip on the Cascadia subduction megathrust of western North America is accompanied by low-frequency tremor in a zone of high fluid pressure between 30 and 40 km depth. Tremor density (tremor epicenters per square kilometer) varies along strike, and lower tremor density statistically correlates with upper plate faults that accommodate northward motion and rotation of forearc blocks. Upper plate earthquakes occur to 35 km depth beneath the faults. We suggest that the faults extend to the overpressured megathrust, where they provide fracture pathways for fluid escape into the upper plate. This locally reduces megathrust fluid pressure and tremor occurrence beneath the faults. Damping of tremor and related slow slip caused by fluid escape could affect fault properties of the megathrust, possibly influencing the behavior of great earthquakes

Seismic and geodetic constraints on Cascadia slow slip

Automatically detected and located tremor epicenters from episodic tremor and slip (ETS) episodes in northern Cascadia provide a high-resolution map of Washington’s slow slip region. Thousands of epicenters from the past four ETS events from 2004 to 2008 provide detailed map-view constraints that correlate with geodetic estimates of the simultaneous slow slip. Each of these ETS events exhibits remarkable similarity in the timing and geographic distribution of tremor density and geodetically inferred slip. Analysis of the latest 15-month inter-ETS period also reveals ageodetic tremor activity similar both in duration and extent to ETS tremor. Epicenters from both ETS and inter- ETS tremor are bounded between the 30- and 45-km plate interface depth contours and locate approximately 75 km east of previous estimates of the locked portion of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Inter-ETS tremor overlaps but is generally downdip of ETS tremor and does not yet correlate with geodetically observed slip, but this is likely because the slip is below current GPS detection levels. Based on the tremor and slip correlation and the tremor-duration and slip magnitude relationship, we suggest that the well-resolved, sharp updip edge of tremor epicenters reflects a change in plate interface coupling properties. The region updip of this boundary may accumulate stress with the potential for coseismic shear failure during a megathrust earthquake. Alternatively, plate convergence in this region could be accommodated by continuous slow slip with no detectable tremor or by slow slip events with sufficiently long recurrence intervals that none have been detected during the past 10 years of GPS observations

Uncertainty in Detection of Volcanic Activity Using Infrasound Arrays: Examples From Mt. Etna, Italy

SD and LZ acknowledge the support from the EUROVOLC project under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 731070). The authors thank the staff of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Catania, in particular Salvo Rapisarda, Daniele Pellegrino, Mario Pulvirenti, and Danilo Contrafatto for their valuable support in the field.The injection of gas and pyroclastic material from volcanic vents into the atmosphere is a prolific source of acoustic waves. Infrasound arrays offer efficient, cost-effective, and near real-time solutions to track the rate and intensity of surface activity at volcanoes. Here, we present a simple framework for the analysis of acoustic array data, based on least-squares beamforming, that allows to evaluate the direction and speed of propagation of acoustic waves between source and array. The algorithms include a new and computationally efficient approach for quantitative assessment of the uncertainty on array measurements based on error propagation theory. We apply the algorithms to new data collected by two 6-element infrasound arrays deployed at Mt. Etna during the period July–August 2019. Our results demonstrate that the use of two infrasound arrays allowed detecting and tracking acoustic sources from multiple craters and active vents associated with degassing and ash-rich explosions, vigorous and frequent Strombolian activity, opening of new eruptive fractures and emplacement of lava flows. Finally, we discuss the potential use of metrics based on infrasound array analyses to inform eruption monitoring operations and early warning at volcanoes characterized by episodic intensification of activity.NERC Natural Environment Research Council NE/P00105X/1European Union (EU)Geoscientists without Borders grant from the Society of Exploration Geophysic

Co-Eruptive Tremor from Bogoslof Volcano: Seismic Wavefield Composition at Regional Distances

We analyze seismic tremor recorded during eruptive activity over the course of the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska. Only regional recordings of the tremor wavefield exist for Bogoslof, making it a challenge to place the recordings in context with other eruptions that are normally captured by local seismic data. We apply a technique of time-frequency polarization analysis to three-component seismic data to reveal the wavefield composition of Bogoslof eruption tremor.We find that at regional distances, the tremor is dominated by P-waves in the band from 1.5 to 10 Hz. Using this information, along with an enriched Bogoslof earthquake catalog, we obtain estimates of average reduced displacement (DR) for eruption tremor during 25 of the 70 Bogoslof events. DR reaches as high as approximately 40 cm2 for two of the major events, similar to other VEI~3 eruptions in Alaska. Overall, average reduced displacement displays a weak correlation to plume height during the first half of the 9-month-long eruption sequence, with a few notable exceptions. The two events with the highest DR values also generated measurable eruption tremor at very-long-periods (VLP) between 0.05 and 0.15 Hz

Short-Term Forecasting and Detection of Explosions During the 2016–2017 Eruption of Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska

We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc. The eruptive sequence began in December 2016 and included about 70 discrete explosive events. Because the volcano has no local monitoring stations, we used distant stations on the nearest volcanoes, Okmok (54 km) and Makushin (72 km), combined with regional infrasound sensors and lightning detection from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Pre-eruptive seismicity was detected for 12 events during the first half of the eruption; for all other events co-eruptive signals allowed for detection only. Monitoring of activity used a combination of scheduled checks combined with automated alarms. Alarms triggered on real-time data included real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM); infrasound from several arrays, the closest being on Okmok; and lightning strokes detected from WWLLN within a 20-km radius of the volcano. During periods of unrest, a multidisciplinary response team of four people fulfilled specific roles to evaluate geophysical and remote-sensing data, run event-specific ash-cloud dispersion models, ensure interagency coordination, and develop and distribute of formalized warning products. Using this approach, for events that produced ash clouds ≥7.5 km above sea level, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) called emergency response partners 15 min, and issued written notices 30 min, after event onset (mean times). Factors that affect timeliness of written warnings include event size and number of data streams available; bigger events and more data both decrease uncertainty and allow for faster warnings. In remote areas where airborne ash is the primary hazard, the approach used at Bogoslof is an effective strategy for hazard mitigation