4 research outputs found
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Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate
Funder: Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011592Funder: International Atomic Energy Agency; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004493Funder: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012947AbstractClimate change will push the planet worryingly close to its boundaries, across all latitudes and levels of development. One question therefore is the extent to which climate change does (and will) severely affect societies’ livelihoods, health, well-being, and cultures. This paper discusses the “severe climate risks” concept developed under Working Group II’s contribution to the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR5, and AR6). Focusing on low-lying coastal socio-ecological systems (LCS) and acknowledging that attempts to define “severe” climate risk have been problematic at the level of global syntheses, we argue for a more place- and people-based framing relating to “habitability under a changing climate.” We summarize habitability in terms of five habitability pillars: land, freshwater, food, settlement and infrastructure, and economic and subsistence activities; we acknowledge social and cultural factors (including perceptions, values, governance arrangements, human agency, power structures) as critical underlying factors rather than as separate pillars. We further develop the habitability framing and examine climate risk to future human health and habitability for three climate “hotspot” archetypes (arctic coasts, atoll islands, densely populated urban areas). Building on the IPCC AR6 framing of severe climate risks, we discuss three key parameters describing severe climate risks in LCS: the point of irreversibility of changes, physical and socio-ecological thresholds, and cascading effects across various habitability dimensions. We also highlight the variability of severe risk conditions both between coastal archetypes and within each of them. Further work should consist of refining the case study framing to find the right balance between capturing context-specificities through real-world local case studies and commonalities derived from more generic archetypes. In addition, there is a need to identify appropriate methods to assess irreversibility, thresholds, and cascading effects, and thus severe climate risks to habitability.</jats:p
Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management
Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social–ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change
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Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems: Confronting Transfer Efficiency.
Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources
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Drivers of conflict and resilience in shifting transboundary fisheries
Climate change is causing fish stocks to shift, upending the social-ecological systems that rely on the historic distributions of these stocks and creating or exacerbating fisheries conflicts. The movements of internationally shared stocks between Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) or between EEZs and the high seas are especially concerning because they bring into play a variety of geopolitical factors and equity issues surrounding missing or conflicting regulations of jurisdictional boundary zones. Though many studies have explored the responses to and repercussions of shifting stocks on fisheries management, there is a dearth of interdisciplinary case studies that provide insight into the complexity of conflict formation in shifting transboundary fisheries, and that highlight the initial response stages where inclusion of proactive and cooperative measures can greatly improve a system's resilience to conflict. Our study helps to fill this gap by drawing on the knowledge of a diverse group of experts to analyze four case studies where transboundary stock shifts, geopolitical or governance tensions, and uncertainty regarding the future of the marine environment collide. Through synthesis of case study findings, we create a causal model of fishery conflict, within which we highlight factors that may heighten or mitigate the risk of conflict over shifting resources such as complex histories of power imbalance, unequal access to resources, or a lack of consistent and transparent data collection. Cooperation and equitable decision-making processes are recognized as vital components of internationally shared stock management which can promote lasting, effective, and conflict-resilient fisheries