Effect of Geographic Variation on the Estimation of Evolutionary Rate (Measured Rate) when Populations from Different Localities Are Used

<p>The measured rate is the product of geographic variation (<i>x</i>-axis) across populations 1 and 2, and local evolution through time (<i>y</i>-axis) within each population. The effect of geographic variation can either increase (A) or decrease (B) the evolutionary rate estimate. The size of the square is proportional to the size of the studied character. Filled square: fossil sample preserved, open square: fossil sample not preserved.</p

Relation between Evolutionary Rates (Mean Values, darwins) and the Time Interval (Million Years) over which They Were Calculated

<p>Filled circles: islands, open circles: mainland; the regression line for islands (solid line) is above the line for the mainland (dotted line). The 95% confidence intervals of the two regression lines do not overlap between the two groups at the smallest time intervals. The difference in elevation (i.e., the rate difference) between the two lines is statistically significant below 0.05 million years.</p

Evolution of the Size of a Morphological Character (Solid Line) in a Hypothetical Population

<p>The character size of the ancestor population from the mainland increases by a small amount on the mainland. After the isolation of the population, there is a large and rapid increase of the size of this character, and the evolutionary rate (dotted line) for this character also increases. The rate of evolution on the island then decreases to values comparable to the rate values for the mainland population.</p

Distribution of Evolutionary Rate (darwins) Is Log-Normal for the Mean Values Dataset

<p>The distribution of evolutionary rates on a logarithmic scale is shown in the inset.</p

Leo et al_JH_Electronic Supplementary Material

Leo et al_JH_Electronic Supplementary Materia

Appendix C. Mammal Ixodes scapularis hosts (compiled by L. A. Durden) used in this analysis.

Mammal Ixodes scapularis hosts (compiled by L. A. Durden) used in this analysis

Appendix B. Details for the model selection steps.

Details for the model selection steps

RRM_optimization

RRM_Optimization: datasets. CS_ini.ini: Circuitscape template option file; fst.txt: Genetic data from Rogic et al. (2013); landscape7.asc: Land use raster with 7 classes; patches_centroids_100.asc: Mice population raster. workdir (EMPTY). Example.R: Main script to run the optimization. function_library.R: My function library. It is called from the Example.R script

DataSheet_1_Pathogen presence, prevalence, and diversity in Ixodes scapularis and mammal hosts at their expanding northern range limits.docx

With climate and land use changes, tick-borne pathogens are expected to become more widely distributed in Canada. Pathogen spread and transmission in this region is modulated by changes in the abundance and distribution of tick and host populations. Here, we assessed the relationships between pathogens detected in Ixodes scapularis and mammal hosts at sites of different levels of disease risk using data from summer field surveys in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. Generalized linear mixed models and ordinal logistic regressions were used to determine the influence of the abundance of I. scapularis and the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts on pathogen presence, prevalence, and diversity. We detected three pathogen species in I. scapularis and small mammals using nested PCRs, namely Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, Babesia odocoilei, and Babesia microti. Depending on the analyzed pathogen, local infection prevalence ranged from 0% to 25.4% in questing ticks and from 0% to 16.7% in small mammal hosts. We detected B. odocoilei in localities beyond its known range limits in southeastern Quebec suggesting ongoing range expansion of this pathogen. Neither the abundance of I. scapularis nor the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts altered local pathogen presence and prevalence, contrary to expectations. However, mammal species richness was a key predictor of the number of pathogen species. Our study demonstrates the need for future surveillance efforts that test questing and feeding I. scapularis of all life stages, as well as their hosts to better determine the spread, transmission, and co-occurrence of tick-borne pathogens in Canada.</p

Location of the 26 study sites sampled during the summer 2011 in southern Québec.

<p>An additional site (Saguenay) is located further north-east and is not shown on this map.</p