Risk Attitudes in Health: An Exploratory Study

Recent studies on human decision-making under uncertainty have revealed the following typical behavioral principles: (1) the importance of the status quo as a reference point ("target") for assessing outcomes, (2) the prevalence of risk-aversion for gains, i.e. above-target payoffs, but risk-seeking for potential losses, and (3) a tendency to give more weight or "marginal utility" to a small loss than a gain of the same size. We investigate whether and how these aspects carry over from the money to the health context, examining the responses to a questionnaire by 325 patients from three outpatient facilities in Palo Alto, California. The questionnaire consisted of twelve hypothetical choice situations each with the choice between two alternative modes of treatment for a supposed illness. In each case, one of the options promised a certain (favorable or unfavorable) health effect, the other one a probabilistic effect. The majority choices confirm the relevance for the health context of all three above-mentioned principles. Risk-aversion for gains, risk- seeking for losses and the differences in slope of the utility function were all significant and substantial in magnitude. When trying to trace back differences in risk attitudes to demographic or socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents, we find that education is the most important corre1ate:choices of people with more years of schooling exhibit less risk-aversion for gains and less risk-seeking for losses and thus correspond to a more linear relationship between health and utility.

designing a smoke- free future?

In this work project, we present the case report "Philip Morris International - Designing a Smoke-Future" which is designed to be used in strategy courses both at the master level and executive classes. Furthermore, the second part of the thesis introduces a case analysis which assesses mentioned report with respect to the disruptiveness of IQOS on the cigarette industry. It is concluded, that PMI´s bold move to cannibalize their own business enables the company to not only respond to the challenges the cigarette industry is facing by committing to healthier alternatives but also to establish entry barriers for subsequent innovations

Philip Morris international - designing a smoke- free future?

In this work project, we present the case report "Philip Morris International - Designing a Smoke-Future" which is designed to be used in strategy courses both at the master level and executive classes. Furthermore, the second part of the thesis introduces a case analysis which assesses mentioned report with respect to the disruptiveness of IQOS on the cigarette industry. It is concluded, that PMI´s bold move to cannibalize their own business enables the company to not only respond to the challenges the cigarette industry is facing by committing to healthier alternatives but also to establish entry barriers for subsequent innovations

Improving the inter-hemispheric gradient of total column atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ in simulations with the ECMWF semi-Lagrangian atmospheric global model

It is a widely established fact that standard semi-Lagrangian advection schemes are highly efficient numerical techniques for simulating the transport of atmospheric tracers. However, as they are not formally mass conserving, it is essential to use some method for restoring mass conservation in long time range forecasts. A common approach is to use global mass fixers. This is the case of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model used by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Mass fixers are algorithms with substantial differences in complexity and sophistication but in general of low computational cost. This paper shows the positive impact mass fixers have on the inter-hemispheric gradient of total atmospheric column-averaged CO₂ and CH₄, a crucial feature of their spatial distribution. Two algorithms are compared: the simple "proportional" and the more complex Bermejo-Conde schemes. The former is widely used by several Earth system climate models as well the CAMS global forecasts and analysis of atmospheric composition, while the latter has been recently implemented in IFS. Comparisons against total column observations demonstrate that the proportional mass fixer is shown to be suitable for the low-resolution simulations, but for the high-resolution simulations the Bermejo-Conde scheme clearly gives better results. These results have potential repercussions for climate Earth system models using proportional mass fixers as their resolution increases. It also emphasises the importance of benchmarking the tracer mass fixers with the inter-hemispheric gradient of long-lived greenhouse gases using observations

Mutations and Allelic Loss of the NF2 Gene in Neurofibromatosis 2-Associated Skin Tumors

Schwannomas in the skin are frequently observed in neurofibromatosis 2 patients. In about one-quarter of the cases, skin tumors are the first clinical symptoms of this disease. Recognizing neurofibromatosis-2-related skin tumors is therefore important for early diagnosis of neurofibromatosis 2, especially in pediatric patients. In this study, we examined 40 skin tumors (36 schwannomas and four neurofibromas) from 20 neurofibromatosis 2 patients for NF2 mutations and allelic loss. NF2 mutations have been identified in blood from 15 (75%) of the 20 patients. We found NF2 mutations in five (13%) and NF2 allelic loss in 18 (45%) of the 40 analyzed tumors. Genetic alterations (allelic loss or mutation) were thus found in 50 (63%) out of the total of 80 examined alleles. In 17 (43%) tumors, alterations were found on both NF2 alleles. These results suggest that, as in the case of vestibular schwannomas and meningiomas, loss of functional NF2 gene product is also the critical event in the development of skin schwannomas. Identification of genetic alterations of the NF2 gene in skin tumors may help to identify neurofibromatosis-2-associated skin tumors, thus assisting in the diagnosis of neurofibromatosis 2 in ambiguous cases, and excluding neurofibromatosis 1 in unclear cases. We also report that the detection rate of constitutional mutations was higher in patients with skin tumors (65%) than in patients without skin tumors (40%)