Prediction of persistent shoulder pain in general practice: Comparing clinical consensus from a Delphi procedure with a statistical scoring system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In prognostic research, prediction rules are generally statistically derived. However the composition and performance of these statistical models may strongly depend on the characteristics of the derivation sample. The purpose of this study was to establish consensus among clinicians and experts on key predictors for persistent shoulder pain three months after initial consultation in primary care and assess the predictive performance of a model based on clinical expertise compared to a statistically derived model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Delphi poll involving 3 rounds of data collection was used to reach consensus among health care professionals involved in the assessment and management of shoulder pain.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predictors selected by the expert panel were: symptom duration, pain catastrophizing, symptom history, fear-avoidance beliefs, coexisting neck pain, severity of shoulder disability, multisite pain, age, shoulder pain intensity and illness perceptions. When tested in a sample of 587 primary care patients consulting with shoulder pain the predictive performance of the two prognostic models based on clinical expertise were lower compared to that of a statistically derived model (Area Under the Curve, AUC, expert-based dichotomous predictors 0.656, expert-based continuous predictors 0.679 vs. 0.702 statistical model).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The three models were different in terms of composition, but all confirmed the prognostic importance of symptom duration, baseline level of shoulder disability and multisite pain. External validation in other populations of shoulder pain patients should confirm whether statistically derived models indeed perform better compared to models based on clinical expertise.</p

LRP10 interacts with SORL1 in the intracellular vesicle trafficking pathway in non-neuronal brain cells and localises to Lewy bodies in Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies

Loss-of-function variants in the low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 10 (LRP10) gene have been associated with autosomal-dominant Parkinson's disease (PD), PD dementia, and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Moreover, LRP10 variants have been found in individuals diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Despite this genetic evidence, little is known about the expression and function of LRP10 protein in the human brain under physiological or pathological conditions. To better understand how LRP10 variants lead to neurodegeneration, we first performed an in-depth characterisation of LRP10 expression in post-mortem brains and human-induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived astrocytes and neurons from control subjects. In adult human brain, LRP10 is mainly expressed in astrocytes and neurovasculature but undetectable in neurons. Similarly, LRP10 is highly expressed in iPSC-derived astrocytes but cannot be observed in iPSC-derived neurons. In astrocytes, LRP10 is present at trans-Golgi network, plasma membrane, retromer, and early endosomes. Interestingly, LRP10 also partially co-localises and interacts with sortilin-related receptor 1 (SORL1). Furthermore, although LRP10 expression and localisation in the substantia nigra of most idiopathic PD and DLB patients and LRP10 variant carriers diagnosed with PD or DLB appeared unchanged compared to control subjects, significantly enlarged LRP10-positive vesicles were detected in a patient carrying the LRP10 p.Arg235Cys variant. Last, LRP10 was detected in Lewy bodies (LB) at late maturation stages in brains from idiopathic PD and DLB patients and in LRP10 variant carriers. In conclusion, high LRP10 expression in non-neuronal cells and undetectable levels in neurons of control subjects indicate that LRP10-mediated pathogenicity is initiated via cell non-autonomous mechanisms, potentially involving the interaction of LRP10 with SORL1 in vesicle trafficking pathways. Together with the specific pattern of LRP10 incorporation into mature LBs, these data support an important mechanistic role for disturbed vesicle trafficking and loss of LRP10 function in neurodegenerative diseases

Comparing the cumulative live birth rate of cleavage-stage versus blastocyst-stage embryo transfers between IVF cycles:a study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled superiority trial (the ToF trial)

Introduction In vitro fertilisation (IVF) has evolved as an intervention of choice to help couples with infertility to conceive. In the last decade, a strategy change in the day of embryo transfer has been developed. Many IVF centres choose nowadays to transfer at later stages of embryo development, for example, transferring embryos at blastocyst stage instead of cleavage stage. However, it still is not known which embryo transfer policy in IVF is more efficient in terms of cumulative live birth rate (cLBR), following a fresh and the subsequent frozen-thawed transfers after one oocyte retrieval. Furthermore, studies reporting on obstetric and neonatal outcomes from both transfer policies are limited. Methods and analysis We have set up a multicentre randomised superiority trial in the Netherlands, named the Three or Fivetrial. We plan to include 1200 women with an indication for IVF with at least four embryos available on day 2 after the oocyte retrieval. Women are randomly allocated to either (1) control group: embryo transfer on day 3 and cryopreservation of supernumerary good-quality embryos on day 3 or 4, or (2) intervention group: embryo transfer on day 5 and cryopreservation of supernumerary good-quality embryos on day 5 or 6. The primary outcome is the cLBR per oocyte retrieval. Secondary outcomes include LBR following fresh transfer, multiple pregnancy rate and time until pregnancy leading a live birth. We will also assess the obstetric and neonatal outcomes, costs and patients' treatment burden. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by the Central Committee on Research involving Human Subjects in the Netherlands in June 2018 (CCMO NL 64060.000.18). The results of this trial will be submitted for publication in international peer-reviewed and in open access journals. Trial registration number Netherlands Trial Register (NL 6857)

The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study). Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included socio-demographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination) were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability.</p

Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

Background: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of reviews synthesize and report the results of primary outcome prediction studies. Methods: Outcome prediction reviews published in MEDLINE between October 2005 and March 2011 were eligible and 127 Systematic reviews with the aim to summarize outcome prediction studies written in English were identified for inclusion. Characteristics of the reviews and the primary studies that were included were independently assessed by 2 review authors, using standardized forms. Results: After consensus meetings a total of 50 systematic reviews that met the inclusion criteria were included. The type of primary studies included (prognostic factor or outcome prediction) was unclear in two-thirds of the reviews. A minority of the reviews reported univariable or multivariable point estimates and measures of dispersion from the primary studies. Moreover, the variables considered for outcome prediction model development were often not reported, or were unclear. In most reviews there was no information about model performance. Quantitative analysis was performed in 10 reviews, and 49 reviews assessed the primary studies qualitatively. In both analyses types a range of different methods was used to present the results of the outcome prediction studies. Conclusions: Different methods are applied to synthesize primary study results but quantitative analysis is rarely performed. The description of its objectives and of the primary studies is suboptimal and performance parameters of the outcome prediction models are rarely mentioned. The poor reporting and the wide variety of data synthesis strategies are prone to influence the conclusions of outcome prediction reviews. Therefore, there is much room for improvement in reviews of outcome prediction studies. (aut.ref.

A Simple Approach for COnsumption and RElease (CORE) Analysis of Metabolic Activity in Single Mammalian Embryos

Non-invasive assay of the consumption and release of metabolites by individual human embryos could allow selection at the cleavage stage of development and facilitate Single Embryo Transfer in clinical IVF but will require simple, high throughput, sensitive methods applicable to small volume samples. A rapid, simple, non-invasive method has therefore been devised using a standard fluorescence plate reader, and used to measure the consumption of pyruvate and glucose, and release of lactate by single bovine embryos at all stages of preimplantation development in culture; amino acid profiles have been determined using HPLC. Early embryos with an ‘intermediate’ level (6.14±0.27 pmol/embryo/h) of pyruvate uptake were associated with the highest rate (68.3%) of blastocyst development indicating that a mid “optimum” range of pyruvate consumption correlates with high viability in this bovine model