Financial Contagion between Economies - an Exploratory Spatial Analysis

At the present time, controversy still surrounds the importance of the financial integration of markets and its possible consequences. The fact that the economy is more global means that countries are more interdependent on each other. This brings new advantages, but also entails new dangers for countries. In this paper we study one of these dangers: financial contagion in times of crisis. In general terms, this is understood as the transmission or propagation of disturbances between the financial markets of different countries. However, this debate on the benefits and risks of economic interdependence also draws attention to problems that are both very old and very new. The problems are new because of the impact of globalization, but old because they are based on economic and political visions and ideologies that always remain the same. In this paper we present new ideas on the current debate on financial contagion. Specifically, we identify the economic variables that represent the crises in the Thai, Russian and Brazilian cases. We ask whether the cause of contagion between countries is the fact that their main macro economic magnitudes or economic fundamentals are at critical levels (commonly considered as the fundamentals of countries), or if, on the other hand, contagion between countries takes place due to trade and financial links and political or regional effects. Various methodological approaches have been used to explore the existence of contagion and the relative importance of the possible channels of transmission of crises (or channels of contagion). In recent years authors have sought to identify the econometric techniques that are best suited to conducting this kind of analysis. Indeed, one of the innovations of this paper is its implementation of Spatial Econometrics as a mechanism for assessing contagion. Unlike the other methodologies used, Spatial Econometrics allows an expression of international relations under explicit dynamic-spatial assumptions. Surprisingly, this technique has not been used previously for the analysis of contagion, and indeed few authors have used it in the study of financial relations in general. Firstly, in this paper we perform an exploratory spatial analysis which contrasts the existence of contagion or spatial autocorrelation. Secondly, we try to assess different channels of contagion through a model based on spatial econometric which would let us realize a confirmatory analysis. The study of an explicit dependency between the countries using this econometric technique may open up a new field of research in financial interdependence relations.

Integrating gene expression, ecology and mycotoxin production by Fusarium and Aspergillus species in relation to interacting environmental factors

Environmental factors, such as water availability (water activity, aw), temperature and their interactions, have a significant impact on the life cycle of mycotoxigenic fungi. Growth and mycotoxin production are influenced by these interacting factors resulting in a broader range of aw × temperature conditions for germination, than growth or mycotoxin production. The biosynthetic genes are mostly clustered together and by using microarrays with sub-arrays for specific mycotoxins, such as trichothecenes, fumonisins and aflatoxins it has been possible to examine the relationship between interacting aw × temperature conditions on growth, toxin gene cluster expression and relate these to phenotypic toxin production. The data for groups of biosynthetic genes (Fusarium culmorum/Fusarium graminearum; Fusarium verticillioides; Aspergillus flavus) were integrated with data on growth and mycotoxin production under different aw × temperature conditions using a mixed growth model. This was used to correlate these factors and predict toxin levels which may be produced under different abiotic stress conditions. Indeed, the relative importance of the different genes could be examined using ternary diagrams of the relative expression of 3 genes at a time in relation to aw, temperature and mycotoxin production to identify the most important relationships. The effect of three-way interacting environmental factors representative of climate change (CC) scenarios (water stress × temperature (+2-4 °C) × elevated CO2 (350-400 vs 650 and 1000 ppm) on growth and mycotoxin production by A. flavus and by species of the Aspergillus section Circumdati and section Nigri have been determined. These studies on maize grain and coffee, respectively, suggest that while growth may not be significantly affected, mycotoxin production may be stimulated by CC factors. This approach to integrate such data sets and model the relationships could be a powerful tool for predicting the relative toxin production under extreme stress conditions, including CC scenarios

Impact of interacting climate change factors on growth and ochratoxin A production by Aspergillus section Circumdati and Nigri species on coffee

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of interacting climate change (CC) factors (water stress [water activity, aw; 0.99-0.90]); temperature [30, 35 °C]; and elevated CO2 [400 and 1000 ppm] on (1) lag phases prior to growth, (2) growth and (3) ochratoxin A (OTA) production by species of Aspergillus sections Circumdati and Nigri on coffee-based media and stored coffee beans. The lag phases, prior to growth, of all strains/species were slightly increased as aw, temperature and CO2 were modified. The interacting CC factors showed that most strains/species examined grew well at 30 °C and slightly less so at 35 °C except for Aspergillus niger (A 1911) which could tolerate the higher temperature. In addition, the interaction of elevated CO2 (1000 ppm) + temperature (35 °C) increased OTA production when compared with 30 °C but only for strains of Aspergillus westerdijkiae (B2), Aspergillus ochraceus (ITAL 14) and Aspergillus steynii (CBS 112814). Most of the strains had optimum growth at 0.95 aw at 35 °C, while at 30 °C the optimum was at 0.98 aw. On stored coffee beans there was only a significant stimulation of OTA production by A. westerdijkiae strains in elevated CO2 (1000) at 0.90 aw. These results suggest differential effects of CC factors on OTA production by species in the Sections Circumdati and Nigri in stored coffee and that for most species there is a reduction in toxin production

"Productivity and innovation spillovers: Micro evidence from Spain"

This article analyses the impact that innovation expenditure and intrasectoral and intersectoral externalities have on productivity in Spanish firms. While there is an extensive literature analysing the relationship between innovation and productivity, in this particular area there are far fewer studies that examine the importance of sectoral externalities, especially with the focus on Spain. One novelty of the study, which covers the industrial and service sectors, is that we also consider jointly the technology level of the sector in which the firm operates and the firm size. The database used is the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC), which includes 12,813 firms for the year 2008 and has been little used in this type of study. The estimation method used is Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares method (IRLS), which is very useful for obtaining robust estimations in the presence of outliers. The results confirm that innovation has a positive effect on productivity, especially in high-tech and large firms. The impact of externalities is more heterogeneous because, while intrasectoral externalities have a positive and significant effect, especially in low-tech firms independently of size, intersectoral externalities have a more ambiguous effect, being clearly significant for advanced industries in which size has a positive effect..Productivity, innovation, sectoral externalities, firm size. JEL classification:D24, O33

“How Important to a City Are Tourists and Daytrippers? The Economic Impact of Tourism on The City of Barcelona”

In this paper, we devise a methodology that is able to objectively quantify the impact of tourism on the urban economy. This methodology takes various dimensions into account. First, to analyse the impact at sectoral level, it should bear in mind that tourism is a "cross-sectional" activity which affects many sectors, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, it is important to consider the impact of urban tourism on sectors traditionally defined as "tourism-related" (that is, hotels, restaurants, shops, etc.) but also its impact on other sectors (for instance, textiles, food, construction, to name only a few) due to the intersectoral relationships that emerge. Second, we need to calculate the percentage of the turnover of each sector that is due to the tourism industry. Third, it is important to establish the geographic distribution of this impact: how is the effect shared between the city and its neighbouring areas? Finally, the effect of urban tourism should be quantified not only in terms of turnover, but also in terms of its contribution to GDP and employment.Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism; Input–Output Tables and Analysis;Allocative Efficiency; Cost–Benefit Analysis algorithms. JEL classification:

Characterization and processing of atrial fibrillation episodes by convolutive blind source separation algorithms and nonlinear analysis of spectral features

Las arritmias supraventriculares, en particular la fibrilación auricular (FA), son las enfermedades cardíacas más comúnmente encontradas en la práctica clínica rutinaria. La prevalencia de la FA es inferior al 1\% en la población menor de 60 años, pero aumenta de manera significativa a partir de los 70 años, acercándose al 10\% en los mayores de 80. El padecimiento de un episodio de FA sostenida, además de estar ligado a una mayor tasa de mortalidad, aumenta la probabilidad de sufrir tromboembolismo, infarto de miocardio y accidentes cerebrovasculares. Por otro lado, los episodios de FA paroxística, aquella que termina de manera espontánea, son los precursores de la FA sostenida, lo que suscita un alto interés entre la comunidad científica por conocer los mecanismos responsables de perpetuar o conducir a la terminación espontánea de los episodios de FA. El análisis del ECG de superficie es la técnica no invasiva más extendida en la diagnosis médica de las patologías cardíacas. Para utilizar el ECG como herramienta de estudio de la FA, se necesita separar la actividad auricular (AA) de las demás señales cardioeléctricas. En este sentido, las técnicas de Separación Ciega de Fuentes (BSS) son capaces de realizar un análisis estadístico multiderivación con el objetivo de recuperar un conjunto de fuentes cardioeléctricas independientes, entre las cuales se encuentra la AA. A la hora de abordar un problema de BSS, se hace necesario considerar un modelo de mezcla de las fuentes lo más ajustado posible a la realidad para poder desarrollar algoritmos matemáticos que lo resuelvan. Un modelo viable es aquel que supone mezclas lineales. Dentro del modelo de mezclas lineales se puede además hacer la restricción de que estas sean instantáneas. Este modelo de mezcla lineal instantánea es el utilizado en el Análisis de Componentes Independientes (ICA).Vayá Salort, C. (2010). Characterization and processing of atrial fibrillation episodes by convolutive blind source separation algorithms and nonlinear analysis of spectral features [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/8416Palanci

ARIMA processes for EEG modeling

Treballs Finals de Grau de Matemàtiques, Facultat de Matemàtiques, Universitat de Barcelona, Any: 2023, Director: Josep Vives i Santa Eulàlia i Ignasi Cos Aguilera[en] The main goal of this work is to find a suitable model for EEGs. This model has to be appropriate for the performing of classification of subjects based on the level of social pressure, and has to preserve time variability