Optimizing Optimism in Systems Engineers

Biases continue to be an important aspect of human judgment and decision making because they often occur subconsciously and can frequently lead to unfavorable outcomes. Optimism bias is one type of cognitive illusion that is often overlooked because of its association with good health and positive outcomes. However, the existence of optimism bias in human judgment can be very damaging especially when it distorts a person's view of future events. In order to better understand optimism bias we explore the benefits and downsides of optimism as well as some empirically-based origins of both optimism and pessimism. This provides a backdrop for a methodology for quantifying optimism and pessimism followed by a discussion about certain professions that make well-calibrated decisions. Results are explored from an optimism survey given to a cohort of eighty systems engineers, which ultimately portray the degree to which optimism bias influences decision making in the estimation of cost and schedule of large projects. A calibration exercise is designed to calibrate optimism in systems engineers with the ultimate goal of helping cost estimation realism. Finally, prescriptive advice is provided to help individual decision makers better optimize their optimism. The implications of this work are twofold. First, the mechanism for quantifying optimism in systems engineers provides useful insight into the degree of optimism that exists among this group of decision makers. This can influence a number of decision making processes that may traditionally be seen as immune from biases due to their routine nature. Second, the process for calibrating optimism provides a way to validate the effectiveness of optimism reduction techniques on different types of decision makers. It also helps to distinguish between certain people who are more receptive to bias corrections and are therefore more likely to be better estimators in real life

Using Cost Models to Capture Project Risk: A Knowledge-Based Approach

12th ECALAS (ECATA Alumni Association) International Aerospace Seminar: Risk and Opportunity Management in Programs presentatio

Predictors of Adoption of Measurement Tools

Billions of dollars are inefficiently spent on process improvement initiatives every year; even less is spent on addressing the organizational factors that can facilitate or hinder their adoption by organizations. This is partially due to the engineering approach to problem solving which is technology centric, the lack of understanding of the factors that drive successful adoption of new ideas, and the top-down approach to dissemination in organizations. What is needed is an organization centric approach that seeks to understand the context in which the methods and tools are to be used and how this context should influence the dissemination process. At the center of this is the compatibility between the organizational culture and the “culture” embedded in the methods and tools being adopted; two elements which were not necessarily architected with each other in mind. Much of their incompatibility results from the misaligned objectives between researchers that develop methods/tools and the practitioners that aim to adopt them. In order to identify the enablers and barriers to adoption, we provide examples of both successful and unsuccessful examples of process improvement initiatives. From the successful adoptions – particularly at BAE Systems and Raytheon – we identify the best attributes of an organization that increase their propensity to adopt as well as the particular attributes of methods and tools that make them more adoptable. From the unsuccessful cases we identify what attributes were unique about an organization and potential pitfalls of the methods and tools being considered. Ultimately, this research is aimed at improving the adoption rate of methods and tools to ensure a higher return on investment on process improvement initiatives

A Prescriptive and Adaptive Framework for UAS SoS Testing in LVC Environment

ITEA Live-Virtual-Constructive Conference presentatio

Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation

14th Annual PSM Users' Group Conference presentatio

A Research Agenda for Systems of Systems Architecting

17th INCOSE Symposium presentatio

Towards a Work Breakdown Structure for Net Centric System of Systems Engineering and Management

As the system engineering industry sees an increasing focus on the lifecycle development, acquisition, and sustainment of net-centric Systems of Systems (SoS), organizations find that current processes and tools need to evolve to handle the increased scope, scale, and complexity of these efforts. One such tool, the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is important in planning, monitoring, and re-focusing of program activities as requirements and goals of the program evolve. This paper provides an overview of the limitations of current standard WBSs with respect to SoS efforts and presents a proposed WBS structure that more adequately reflects the evolving processes and cross-organizational complexities

Coupling Lean Thinking and Systems Thinking at the Enterprise Level

15th Industrial Engineering Research Conference presentatio

Characterizing the Impact of Requirements Volatility on Systems Engineering Effort

25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling presentatio

Practical Software and Systems Measurement: A Foundation for Objective Project Management

COSYSMO Requirements Volatility Workshop presentatio