Visualisation and Grid applications of electromagnetic scattering from aircraft

Proceedings of the 2003 UK e-Science All Hands Meeting, 31st August - 3rd September, Nottingham UKElectromagnetic scattering behaviour plays a central role in the design of aircraft and other complex structures. This paper describes progress on visualisation tools in this area and on initial development of a web portal to enable scientists at remote locations to collaborate

Use of NIRS to explore skeletal muscle oxygenation during different training sessions in professional boxing

Purpose: The physiological examination of boxing has been limited to systemic response in amateur athletes. The demands of professional boxing have been overlooked, despite the different competition format. We sought to determine the physiological demands placed on skeletal muscle in professional boxing. Methods: Ten male professional boxers (age 26 ± 5 years, height 177 ± 4 cm, weight 71 ± 6 kg) were recruited for this observational study. On different days, the athletes completed 6 × 3 min rounds of pad, bag or spar-based training with 1 min recovery between each round. Prior to each session, participants put on a heart rate monitor and near-infrared spectroscopy attached to the belly of the rectus femoris muscle to record heart rate and muscle oxygenation. Results: There were significantly less punches thrown in sparring compared to other training modalities (p &lt; 0.001). Skeletal muscle oxygenation across training modalities consisted of a delay, fast desaturation and steady state. Across rounds there was a significant increase in time delay for desaturation (p = 0.016), rate of fast desaturation (p &lt; 0.001) and duration of fast desaturation (p = 0.019). There was a significant difference in sparring for the heart rate where skeletal muscle oxygenation changes occurred compared to pads or bag sessions (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusion: The findings highlight differences in the skeletal muscle response to the different training modalities. Practitioners need to be aware of the muscular demands of each session to allow optimal adaptation across a training camp. Training needs to allow the skeletal muscle to achieve a new oxygenation steady state rapidly to promote efficient performance across rounds.</p

Three Essays in the Economics of Price Setting

This dissertation concerns the economics of price setting in both the industrial organization and macroeconomics literature. Across three chapters, I document salient features of prices and model their behavior. In the first chapter, we reconcile the potential for collusion in a product market, with frequent large sales, by building and estimating a model of collusion that allows producers to temporarily be on sale. In the second chapter, we document new facts about the frequency at the product level with which regular prices change, firstly that they are more likely to change the higher the revenue of the product, secondly that given they change by less the higher the revenue of the product. We embed these facts in a menu cost model, and show their importance to aggregate dynamics. Finally in my third chapter, we recover firm level markups using a model of final good inventories, that encompasses dynamic incentives.PHDEconomicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/167965/1/adusher_1.pd

Impacts of Policy on Electric Vehicle Diffusion Usher et al. Impacts of Policy on Electric Vehicle Diffusion

Abstract Selection and design of appropriate government policies to support electric vehicle (EV) adoption can be aided by modelling the future impact of policy instruments relative to a given baseline estimate. This paper highlights the innovative application of a diffusion model to analyse complex impacts of EV policy instruments on future incremental EV uptake. Several versions of four key policy instruments are tested in the model: linking electric vehicle sales to Renewable Electricity Purchases (RE-EV), financial subsidies, smart charging incentives and a common cost metric to educate consumers about the lifetime costs of EVs. Market share between battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) were forecasted out to the year 2034 across all 1.5 million households in the state of Victoria, Australia. The RE-EV scenario had the strongest performance in terms of economic and societal indicators. Non-subsidy policy instruments can also support uptake of EVs, especially in the case of encouraging BEV adoption. We found feebate scenarios were more effective policies than rebates. Rebate and feebate scenarios applied within the 2014-2019 timeframe compared better than those with longer timeframes. Our analyses showed how combined policy scenarios not only further improved EV uptake but also allowed government to fund rebates through feebate income

Seeing the Bigger Picture: Rosetta Mission Amateur Observing Campaign and Lessons for the Future

Amateur astronomers can make useful contributions to the study of comets. They add temporal coverage and multiscale observations that can aid the study of fast-changing and large-scale comet features. We document and review the amateur observing campaign set up to complement the Rosetta space mission, including the data submitted to date, and consider the campaign’s effectiveness in the light of experience from previous amateur comet campaigns. We report the results of surveys of campaign participants, the amateur astronomy community, and schools who participated in a comet 46P observing campaign. We draw lessons for future campaigns, which include the need for clarity of objectives; recognizing the wider impact campaigns can have on increasing science capital; clear, consistent, timely, and tailored guidance; easy upload procedures with built-in quality control; and regular communication, feedback, and recognition

The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study

BACKGROUND: Antihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: Antihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment

The effect of nitisinone on homogentisic acid and tyrosine: a two-year survey of patients attending the National Alkaptonuria Centre, Liverpool

Background Alkaptonuria is a rare, debilitating autosomal recessive disorder affecting tyrosine metabolism. Deficiency of homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase leads to increased homogentisic acid which is deposited as ochronotic pigment. Clinical sequelae include severe early onset osteoarthritis, increased renal and prostate stone formation and cardiac complications. Treatment has been largely based on analgaesia and arthroplasty. The National Alkaptonuria Centre in Liverpool has been using 2 mg nitisinone (NTBC) off-license for all patients in the United Kingdom with alkaptonuria and monitoring the tyrosine metabolite profiles. Methods Patients with confirmed alkaptonuria are commenced on 2 mg dose (alternative days) of NTBC for three months with daily dose thereafter. Metabolite measurement by LC-MS/MS is performed at baseline, day 4, three-months, six-months and one-year post-commencing NTBC. Thereafter, monitoring and clinical assessments are performed annually. Results Urine homogentisic acid concentration decreased from a mean baseline 20,557 µmol/24 h (95th percentile confidence interval 18,446–22,669 µmol/24 h) by on average 95.4% by six months, 94.8% at one year and 94.1% at two year monitoring. A concurrent reduction in serum homogentisic acid concentration of 83.2% compared to baseline was also measured. Serum tyrosine increased from normal adult reference interval to a mean ± SD of 594 ± 184 µmol /L at year-two monitoring with an increased urinary excretion from 103 ± 81 µmol /24 h at baseline to 1071 ± 726 µmol /24 h two years from therapy. Conclusions The data presented represent the first longitudinal survey of NTBC use in an NHS service setting and demonstrate the sustained effect of NTBC on the tyrosine metabolite profile

Predicting the risk of acute kidney injury in primary care: derivation and validation of STRATIFY-AKI

BACKGROUND: Antihypertensives reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease but are also associated with harms including acute kidney injury (AKI). Few data exist to guide clinical decision making regarding these risks. AIM: To develop a prediction model estimating the risk of AKI in people potentially indicated for antihypertensive treatment. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational cohort study using routine primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England. METHOD: People aged ≥40 years, with at least one blood pressure measurement between 130 mmHg and 179 mmHg were included. Outcomes were admission to hospital or death with AKI within 1, 5, and 10 years. The model was derived with data from CPRD GOLD (n = 1 772 618), using a Fine-Gray competing risks approach, with subsequent recalibration using pseudo-values. External validation used data from CPRD Aurum (n = 3 805 322). RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 59.4 years and 52% were female. The final model consisted of 27 predictors and showed good discrimination at 1, 5, and 10 years (C-statistic for 10-year risk 0.821, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.818 to 0.823). There was some overprediction at the highest predicted probabilities (ratio of observed to expected event probability for 10-year risk 0.633, 95% CI = 0.621 to 0.645), affecting patients with the highest risk. Most patients (>95%) had a low 1- to 5-year risk of AKI, and at 10 years only 0.1% of the population had a high AKI and low CVD risk. CONCLUSION: This clinical prediction model enables GPs to accurately identify patients at high risk of AKI, which will aid treatment decisions. As the vast majority of patients were at low risk, such a model may provide useful reassurance that most antihypertensive treatment is safe and appropriate while flagging the few for whom this is not the case