The effect of spatial and temporal planning scale on the trade-off between the financial value and carbon storage in production forests

Background: Increasing carbon stock in standing forests is one of the proposed ways to mitigate climate change. However, in production forests, this typically would lead to reduced harvesting possibilities and thus reduced financial gain for the forest owners. The size of this reduction should depend on the chosen target level of the carbon stock as well as the required speed of accumulation. Furthermore, due to landscape heterogeneity, the size of the loss can be expected to vary the planning scale, often related to forest property size.Aim: This study aimed to quantify the effects of spatial and temporal planning scales on the severity of the tradeoff between Net Present Value (NPV) of future timber sales and carbon storage in production forests in Southern Sweden.Methods: We used the Heureka PlanWise forest decision support system with built-in Linear Programming functionality. We created six Production Possibility Frontiers (PPF) that quantified the trade-off for the combinations of two scenarios for timing of carbon accumulation (either by 2100 or by 2100 with an intermediate target by 2045) and three spatial management scales (-3300 ha, -300 ha, and -60 ha; 1068 stands).Results: There was a strong effect of temporal scale, with consistently lower NPV, with the same carbon stock in 2100, when the intermediate target for 2045 was applied. The effect of the spatial scale was only apparent between the smallest (50 ha) scale and the larger scales (300 and 3300 ha), with consistently lower NPV with the same carbon stock at the smallest scale.Conclusion: We conclude that both the effects of spatial management scale and temporal scale on the cost of carbon storage should be considered in relation to potential climate policies

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments

The FoLDS framework presented in this paper is set up to develop scenarios for forested landscapes with a transparent connection between the broad-scale developments in socio-economic factors and the ecosystem services provided. The forests that provide these ecosystem services are managed by a multitude of forest owners. Different forest owners have their own objectives and will thus adjust their forest management differently to socio-economic developments. The FoLDS framework breaks down the connection from socio-economic developments to the landscape level in three steps. In the first step, a structure is provided for deciding on scenarios combining the socio-economic factors that have most influence on forest owners. In the second step, the scenarios are translated to the distribution of forest management approaches in the landscape by invoking a behavioural matrix of forest owner types and forest management decisions. The third step involves the implementation of these forest management approaches in a forest modelling tool that is tailored to the specific landscape at hand. The results of these calculations are then translated to a set of indicators for the ecosystem services of interest. A survey among researchers experienced with the FoLDS framework indicates that there is an added value in systematically including both qualitative and quantitative scenario methods for forested landscapes

Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under different forest management scenarios – The LEcA tool

Forests provide a multitude of ecosystem services. In Sweden, the goal to replace fossil fuels could induce substantial changes in the current management and use of forests. Therefore, methods and tools are needed to assess synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services for policy and planning alternatives. The aim of this study was to develop methods for integrated sustainability assessment of forest management strategies for long-term provisioning of various ecosystem services. For this purpose, the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool was developed to analyse synergies and trade-offs among five ecosystem services: bioenergy feedstock and industrial wood production, forest carbon storage, recreation areas and habitat networks. Forest growth and management were simulated for two scenarios; the EAF-tot scenario dominated by even-aged forestry (EAF), and the CCF-int scenario with a combination of continuous-cover forestry (CCF) and intensified EAF. The results showed trade-offs between industrial wood and bioenergy production on one side and habitat, recreation and carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool showed great potential for evaluation of impacts of alternative policies for land zoning and forest management on forest ecosystem services. It can be used to assess the consequences of forest management strategies related to renewable energy and conservation policies

Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources

Demands on forest bioenergy feedstock are expected to increase in many countries due to climate change mitigation. However, sustainable use of forest biomass resources can be ensured only if local and landscape conditions are taken into account, linking energy use to its resource base. The aim of this study was to analyse the forest biomass potential for Lithuania's energy pathways, while comparing the projected demand of forest bioenergy feedstock with resource projections. This was performed using the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool and the energy model MESSAGE. Biomass demand can be met up to 2050, after which demands under a Biomass Low pathway can still be met by the domestic forest resource if other wood uses are reduced, while Biomass High leads to a biomass deficit regarding domestic forest resources. Information exchange between the energy model and the LEcA tool enables an integrated sustainability assessment, and may contribute to a sustainable and efficient use of forest as a bioenergy feedstock resource. Keywords: Forest bioenergy feedstock, Environmental restrictions, Resource efficiency, Integrated resource assessment, Integrated sustainability assessmen

Habitat network assessment of forest bioenergy options using the landscape simulator LandSim – A case study of Kronoberg, southern Sweden

Forest biomass is a renewable resource that is increasingly utilised for bioenergy purposes in Sweden, which along with the extraction of industrial wood may conflict with biodiversity conservation. The aim of this paper is to present a method for integrated sustainability assessment of forest biomass extraction, particularly from bioenergy and biodiversity perspectives. The landscape simulator LandSim was developed and linked with models for the assessment of biomass yields and habitat networks representing prioritised biodiversity components. It was applied in a case study in Kronoberg County in southern Sweden. Forest growth and management were simulated for the period 2010–2110, following two land zoning scenarios, one applying even-aged forest management on all forest land except for protected areas (EAF-tot), and one applying continuous cover forest management on parts of the forest land, combined with protected areas and an intensified even-aged management on the other parts (CCF-int). The EAF-tot scenario implied higher yields of biomass feedstock for bioenergy, the CCF-int scenario only giving 66% of that yield, while the CCF-int scenario performed substantially better when it came to the habitat network indicators, if habitat suitability was ensured. Conclusively, the case study confirmed that the modelling framework of the LEcA tool, linking the landscape simulator LandSim with the biomass yield assessment and the habitat network model can be used for integrating main policy concerns when assessing renewable energy options

Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources

Demands on forest bioenergy feedstock are expected to increase in many countries due to climate change mitigation. However, sustainable use of forest biomass resources can be ensured only if local and landscape conditions are taken into account, linking energy use to its resource base. The aim of this study was to analyse the forest biomass potential for Lithuania's energy pathways, while comparing the projected demand of forest bioenergy feedstock with resource projections. This was performed using the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool and the energy model MESSAGE. Biomass demand can be met up to 2050, after which demands under a Biomass Low pathway can still be met by the domestic forest resource if other wood uses are reduced, while Biomass High leads to a biomass deficit regarding domestic forest resources. Information exchange between the energy model and the LEcA tool enables an integrated sustainability assessment, and may contribute to a sustainable and efficient use of forest as a bioenergy feedstock resourceLietuvos energetikos institutasMiškų ir ekologijos fakultetasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways : Challenges and benefits

| openaire: EC/H2020/691739/EU//REEEM Funding Information: This research has received funding through the REEEM project from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 691739. This publication reflects only the views of its authors, and the European Commission cannot be held responsible for its content. The authors would also like to thank all the contributors to the REEEM project and those who prepared the proposal. Francesco Gardumi would like to thank the division of Energy Systems Analysis for all the support and feedback provided through the duration of the REEEM project. Funding Information: With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union ratcheted its ambition on climate change and committed to carbon-neutrality by 2050 [ 1 ]. Though supported by many Member States, the transformational change mandated by the Green Deal also raised concerns from some. For instance, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from Poland reacted tothe announcement by stating the need for the European Commission to work with member states [ 2 ]. MEPs from Italy highlighted the need to look at the social and economic impact of achieving climate neutrality and MEPs from France echoed the Italian proposal for a more humane social and ecological transition. Such concerns stem from specific social, economic and environmental pressures, and are often not captured explicitly by the analysis supporting emission mitigation plans. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonisingmodelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.Peer reviewe