Wise use of mathematical models in policy

Mathematical models are used widely, in economic forecasting, in the social sciences more generally, climate research and work on infectious diseases. But what do the social sciences have to say about modelling and what can modellers learn from the social sciences

Africa’s urbanisation increases risks of avian influenza pandemics

Growing urban populations in Africa increase demand for protein intake, which in many global regions is most easily produced by large scale poultry production in rural areas. But the long value chains modern poultry production creates increase opportunities for biosecurity lapses. With avian flu outbreaks already common in the global North and South, the risk of zoonotic transmission and a human health pandemic indicates why large-scale poultry production should be regulated and the potential for harm to human health kept under surveillance

Method in limbo? Theoretical and empirical considerations in using thematic analysis by veterinary and One Health researchers

This article spans a number of theoretical, empirical and practice junctures at the intersection of human and animal medicine and the social sciences. We discuss the way thematic analysis, a qualitative method borrowed from the social sciences, is being increasingly used by veterinary and One Health researchers to investigate a range of complex issues. By considering theoretical aspects of thematic analysis, we expand our discussion to question whether this tool, as well as other social science methods, is currently being used appropriately by veterinary and human health researchers. We suggest that additional engagement with social science theory would enrich research practices and improve findings. We argue that considerations of ‘big theory’ - ontological and epistemological positionings of the researcher - and ‘small(er)’ theory, the specific social theory in which research is situated, are both necessary. Our point of departure is that scientific discourse is not merely construction or ideology but a unique and continuing arena of debate, in part at least because of the elevation of self-criticism to a central tenet of its practice. We argue for further engagement with the core ideas and concepts outlined above and discuss them in what follows. In particular, and by way of focusing the point, we suggest that for veterinary, One Health, and human medical researchers to use thematic analysis to its maximum potential they should be encouraged to engage with both broader socio-economic theories and with questions of ontology and epistemology

The Australian pharmacist workforce: distribution and predictors of practising outside of metropolitan and regional areas in 2019

Objective: This study describes the distribution of the Australian pharmacists' workforce using a range of indicators and identifies predictors of practising outside of metropolitan and regional areas. Methods: A cross-sectional description of the 2019 pharmacy workforce. Pharmacists who completed the 2019 workforce survey as reported in the Australian National Health Workforce Dataset (NHWDS). The main outcome measures were the number of pharmacists per 100 000, the proportion working less than 35 h a week, the proportion with primary qualification from overseas (outside of Australia and New Zealand) and the proportion aged 65 years or older. Additionally, predictors of practising outside of metropolitan and regional areas were also identified. Key findings: Nationally, there were 102 pharmacists/100 000 with one-third working less than 35 h a week. About 10% of pharmacists obtained their primary qualification from overseas and 4% were 65 years old or older. Males were more likely to practise outside of metropolitan and regional areas [OR, 1.40 (1.30-1.50); P < 0.001], while younger people were less likely to practise outside of these locations [OR, 0.71 (0.66-0.76); P < 0.001]. Those who had obtained their primary qualification overseas were also more likely to practise outside of metropolitan and regional areas. Conclusions: Analysis of the 2019 NHWDS suggests an uneven distribution of the pharmacist workforce. Also, three predictors of practising outside of major cities and regional centres were identified

Relationship of dental practitioners to rural primary care networks

Abstract still to be addedResidents of rural and remote communities have poorer oral health and less access to oral health services than people living in major cities. The populations of many rural and remote centres are not large enough to support a resident dentist and, in the absence of community oral health services, rural residents may present to non-dental primary care providers with oral health problems. The aim of this study was to describe strategies that can be used by primary care practitioners to improve the provision of oral health services to rural and remote communities. The specific objectives were to (i) map oral health services practices in rural communities across primary care providers (ii) assess the extent to which oral health problems impact on service provision by primary health care providers; (iii) assess the extent to which primary care networks could be more effectively utilised to improve the provision of oral health services to rural communities and to identify what interventions/strategies were most likely to be effective.The research reported in this paper is a project of the Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute which is supported by a grant from the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing under the Primary Health Care Research Evaluation and Development Strategy

Costs and benefits of wetland restoration of hydric cropland in Missouri: a preliminary assessment

This report presents a preliminary analysis of the benefits and costs of restoring hydric cropland sites to wetlands in Missouri. Potential social and private (landowner) benefits and costs were estimated for 25 sites in Livingston county and 23 sites in Linn county. Sites ranging in size from 36 to 68 acres were identified using a geographic information system. Social net benefits of wetland restoration for both counties were highest and positive ($431,248) with high benefits and low costs and negative and lowest (-$579,681) with low benefits and high costs. When wetland construction costs are fully subsidized and easement payments equal the opportunity cost of wetland restoration, private net benefits ranged from $629,905 (high landowner benefits) to$9,686 (low landowner benefits). It would be economically rational for a landowner to convert hydric cropland to wetland if the easement payment provided by the government is greater than or equal to the opportunity cost of wetland restoration, the cost of wetland construction is fully subsidized, and the income earned from the wetland equals or exceeds maintenance cost of the wetland. The first condition is likely to be satisfied for landowners who bid eligible cropland into the Wetland Reserve Program. The second condition would be satisfied under current cost-sharing provisions for wetlands. The third condition may or may not be satisfied.Project # G-2029-04 Agreement # 14-08-0001-G-2029-0

The paradox of going hungry when there is so much food : the perspective of vulnerable youth and their caseworkers

This study aimed to examine the food security challenges experienced among vulnerable youth in North West Tasmania. An exploratory, descriptive design was used to collect data through face-to-face interviews and focus group discussions with 22 young residents and with five stakeholders and representatives from different community and state organisations. The most significant finding of the study was that a proportion of young residents in the North West Coast of Tasmania were threatened by food insecurity, which was caused by a combination of factors including patterns of food consumption and dietary behaviours. Those with higher financial difficulty due to the lack of a stable job were significantly more vulnerable to food insecurity and faced a higher chance of having health problems. The findings of the project have many implications to improve the food security and lives of vulnerable youth

Millennium Villages Impact Evaluation, Baseline Summary Report

This report presents the baseline findings from the Department for International Development (DFID)-commissioned impact evaluation of the Millennium Village Project (MVP) in Northern Ghana.1 The project will run from 2012 until 2016, with interventions targeting a cluster of communities with a total population of approximately 27,000 people. The MVP has been designed to demonstrate how an integrated approach to community-led development can translate the international Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) into results. It is an approach that has been previously piloted in Kenya and Ethiopia and in 2006 launched at scale to reach nearly half a million people across 10 countries throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. The new Millennium Village (MV) in Northern Ghana is the first to be accompanied by an independent impact evaluation. Details of the conceptual approach and methodology for the evaluation are presented in the Initial Design Document (IDD), with appendices containing the tools used for data collection.2DFI

A wavelet-based tool for studying non-periodicity

This paper presents a new numerical approach to the study of non-periodicity in signals, which can complement the maximal Lyapunov exponent method for determining chaos transitions of a given dynamical system. The proposed technique is based on the continuous wavelet transform and the wavelet multiresolution analysis. A new parameter, the \textit{scale index}, is introduced and interpreted as a measure of the degree of the signal's non-periodicity. This methodology is successfully applied to three classical dynamical systems: the Bonhoeffer-van der Pol oscillator, the logistic map, and the Henon map.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure