Bovine mortality: the utility of two data sources for the provision of population-level surveillance intelligence

Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths recorded in the mandatory register [Cattle Tracing System (CTS)] and fallen stock collections by the National Fallen Stock Company (NSFCo) with a nationwide voluntary membership.Methods: Data for the period 2011–2016 were described and compared to establish their strengths and limitations. Similarities and differences in their temporal, seasonal and spatial patterns were examined overall, at postcode area level and for different age groups. Temporal aberration detection algorithms (TADA) were fitted.Results: Broadly, similar patterns were observed in the two datasets; however, there were some notable differences. The observed seasonal, annual and spatial patterns match expectations, given knowledge of Scottish cattle production systems. The registry data provide more comprehensive coverage of all areas of Scotland, while collections data provide a more comprehensive measure of the mortality experienced in 0–1-month-old calves.Discussion: Consequently, estimates of early calf mortality and their impact on the livestock sector made using CTS, or successor registers, will be under-estimates. This may apply to other registry-based systems. Fitted TADA detected points of deviations from expected norms some of which coincided in the two datasets; one with a known external event that caused increased mortality. We have demonstrated that both data sources do have the potential to be utilized to provide measures of mortality in the Scottish cattle population that could inform surveillance activities. While neither is perfect, they are complementary. Each has strengths and weaknesses, so ideally, a system where they are analyzed and interpreted in parallel would optimize the information obtained for surveillance purposes for epidemiologists, risk managers, animal health policy-makers and the wider livestock industry sector. This study provides a foundation on which to build an operational system. Further development will require improvements in the timeliness of data availability and further investment of resources

An economic assessment of alternative antimicrobial use scenarios on pig farms

This paper explores the theoretical economic outcome of management changes that result in different levels of antimicrobial use (AMU) in two types of UK pig farm. A static farm economic pig production model (FEPM) was used on a representative ‘Top-third’ most profitable farm and a representative ‘Mid-range’ profitable farm. Three AMU theoretical management scenarios were investigated; (a) management changes leading to a reduction of AMU by 35% (AMU35); (b) more extensive management changes leading to a reduction of AMU by 95% (AMU95); and (c) implementing depopulation of the herd (AMU Depop). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of increases or decreases in pig revenue and feed price on farm gross margin under these scenarios. Over a single year, the AMU35 scenario was estimated to have a small positive impact (+3%) on both farm types. The other two AMU reduction scenarios had higher AMU reduction on farms but required higher variable cost and hence they resulted in lower farm profitability. There was a substantial reduction (up to −50%) in farm gross margin under these two AMU reduction scenarios in the modeled short-term time-period. The impact of the alternative AMU scenarios was slightly higher on a farm representing the ‘Top-third’ farm type, reducing farm gross margin further by 7% compared to the ‘Mid-range’ farm. Nevertheless, both farm types stay profitable under all three AMU scenarios. The results showed that in the modeled short-term implementing management changes that result in a reduction of on-farm AMU by 35% had a good economic outcome. In practice, the other two scenarios would be considered as longer-term strategies. Although both require higher initial costs to implement, the improved biosecurity and hygiene will benefit from lower disease occurrence for a longer term. Farm gross margins were, however, found to be highly sensitive to changes on market prices especially increasing feed prices. An increase of more than 15% in feed price moved a profitable farm into a loss-making farm. It will be economically challenging for uptakes of these, or similar, AMU reduction scenarios on farms if the market prices become un-favorable to pig farmers

Co-infection with <i>Fasciola hepatica</i> may increase the risk of <i>Escherichia coli</i> O157 shedding in British cattle destined for the food chain

© 2017 The Authors Escherichia coli O157 is a zoonotic bacterium that can cause haemorrhagic diarrhoea in humans and is of worldwide public health concern. Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir for human infection. Fasciola hepatica is a globally important parasite of ruminant livestock that is known to modulate its host's immune response and affect susceptibility to bacterial pathogens such as Salmonella Dublin. Shedding of E. coli O157 is triggered by unknown events, but the immune system is thought to play a part. We investigated the hypothesis that shedding of E. coli O157 is associated with F. hepatica infection in cattle. Three hundred and thirty four cattle destined for the food chain, from 14 British farms, were tested between January and October 2015. E. coli O157 was detected by immunomagnetic separation and bacterial load enumerated. F. hepatica infection status was assessed by copro-antigen ELISA. A significant association (p = 0.01) was found between the log percent positivity (PP) of the F. hepatica copro-antigen ELISA and E. coli O157 shedding when the fixed effects of day of sampling and the age of the youngest animal in the group, plus the random effect of farm were adjusted for. The results should be interpreted cautiously due to the lower than predicted level of fluke infection in the animals sampled. Nevertheless these results indicate that control of F. hepatica infection may have an impact on the shedding of E. coli O157 in cattle destined for the human food chain