Is Past Performance a Good Predictor of Future Potential?

Both assessment centres and 360 degree feedback have become very popular new era HR tools. With human resources gaining strategic importance combined with raising costs of talented managers and their scarce availability, organizations are left with no alternatives than identifying and grooming talent from within. This has led to the increased use of assessment centres and 360 degree tools for developing leadership competencies. Some times 360 degree feedback is used as tool for career development and succession planning. Sometimes assessment centres are used as predictors of fast track managers. However research on the predictive ability of ACs or 360 degree feedback is scant. This study is based on data gathered from three organizations that have conducted assessment centres as well as 360 degree feedback. In all three organizations ACs and 360 degree feedback were used as development tools. In all these organizations competency mapping was done and common competencies were identified using behaviour indicators. Competencies were assessed by external assessors and by their seniors, juniors, and colleagues on the same competency model. Results showed no definite patterns and lead to the conclusion that past performance as assessed by 360 degree feedback predictor of future potential as assessed by the assessment centres. The findings seem to be valid irrespective of the nature of competencies assessed and across various categories of employees. Given the lack of correlation, caution is necessary while using the data for promotion and succession planning exercises.

Adaptive importance sampling technique for markov chains using stochastic approximation

For a discrete-time finite-state Markov chain, we develop an adaptive importance sampling scheme to estimate the expected total cost before hitting a set of terminal states. This scheme updates the change of measure at every transition using constant or decreasing step-size stochastic approximation. The updates are shown to concentrate asymptotically in a neighborhood of the desired zero-variance estimator. Through simulation experiments on simple Markovian queues, we observe that the proposed technique performs very well in estimating performance measures related to rare events associated with queue lengths exceeding prescribed thresholds. We include performance comparisons of the proposed algorithm with existing adaptive importance sampling algorithms on some examples. We also discuss the extension of the technique to estimate the infinite horizon expected discounted cost and the expected average cost

Quantification of intrafraction prostate motion and its dosimetric effect on VMAT.

Intrafraction prostate motion degrades the accuracy of radiation therapy (RT) delivery. Whilst a number of metrics in the literature have been used to quantify intrafraction prostate motion, it has not been established whether these metrics reflect the effect of motion on the RT dose delivered to the patients. In this study, prostate motion during volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatment of 18 patients and a total of 294 fractions was quantified through novel metrics as well as those available in the literature. The impact of the motion on VMAT dosimetry was evaluated using these metrics and dose reconstructions based on a previously validated and published method. The dosimetric impact of the motion on planning target volume (PTV) and clinical target volume (CTV) coverage and organs at risk (OARs) was correlated with the motion metrics, using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), to evaluate their utility. Action level threshold for the prostate motion metric that best described the dosimetric impact on the PTV D95% was investigated through iterative regression analysis. The average (range) of the mean motion for the patient cohort was 1.5 mm (0.3-9.9 mm). A number of motion metrics were found to be strongly correlated with PTV D95%, the range of R 2 was 0.43-0.81. For all the motion measures, correlations with CTV D99% (range of R 2 was 0.12-0.62), rectum V65% (range of R 2 was 0.33-0.58) and bladder V65% (range of R 2 was 0.51-0.69) were not as strong as for PTV D95%. The mean of the highest 50% of motion metric was one of the best indicator of dosimetric impact on PTV D95%. Action level threshold value for this metric was found to be 3.0 mm. For an individual fraction, when the metric value was greater than 3.0 mm then the PTV D95% was reduced on average by 6.2%. This study demonstrated that several motion metrics are well correlated with the dosimetric impact (PTV D95%) of individual fraction prostate motion on VMAT delivery and could be used for treatment course adaptation

Fluctuations in the Irreversible Decay of Turbulent Energy

A fluctuation law of the energy in freely-decaying, homogeneous and isotropic turbulence is derived within standard closure hypotheses for 3D incompressible flow. In particular, a fluctuation-dissipation relation is derived which relates the strength of a stochastic backscatter term in the energy decay equation to the mean of the energy dissipation rate. The theory is based on the so-called ``effective action'' of the energy history and illustrates a Rayleigh-Ritz method recently developed to evaluate the effective action approximately within probability density-function (PDF) closures. These effective actions generalize the Onsager-Machlup action of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics to turbulent flow. They yield detailed, concrete predictions for fluctuations, such as multi-time correlation functions of arbitrary order, which cannot be obtained by direct PDF methods. They also characterize the mean histories by a variational principle.Comment: 26 pages, Latex Version 2.09, plus seceq.sty, a stylefile for sequential numbering of equations by section. This version includes new discussion of the physical interpretation of the formal Rayleigh-Ritz approximation. The title is also change

Turbulence Fluctuations and New Universal Realizability Conditions in Modelling

General turbulent mean statistics are shown to be characterized by a variational principle. The variational functionals, or ``effective actions'', have experimental consequences for turbulence fluctuations and are subject to realizability conditions of positivity and convexity. An efficient Rayleigh-Ritz algorithm is available to calculate approximate effective actions within PDF closures. Examples are given for Navier-Stokes and for a 3-mode system of Lorenz. The new realizability conditions succeed at detecting {\em a priori} the poor predictions of PDF closures even when the classical 2nd-order moment realizability conditions are satisfied.Comment: 4 pages, LaTeX (Version 2.09), 3 figures, Postscript, Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

BRAF inhibition is associated with increased clonality in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes

There have been significant advances with regard to BRAF-targeted therapies against metastatic melanoma. However, the majority of patients receiving BRAF inhibitors (BRAFi) manifest disease progression within a year. We have recently shown that melanoma patients treated with BRAFi exhibit an increase in melanoma-associated antigens and in CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in response to therapy. To characterize such a T-cell infiltrate, we analyzed the complementarity-determining region 3 (CDR3) of rearranged T-cell receptor (TCR) β chain-coding genes in tumor biopsies obtained before the initiation of BRAFi and 10–14 d later. We observed an increase in the clonality of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in 7 of 8 patients receiving BRAFi, with a statistically significant 21% aggregate increase in clonality. Over 80% of individual T-cell clones detected after initiation of BRAFi treatment were new clones. Interestingly, the comparison of tumor infiltrates with clinical responses revealed that patients who had a high proportion of pre-existing dominant clones after the administration of BRAFi responded better to therapy than patients who had a low proportion of such pre-existing dominant clones following BRAFi. These data suggest that although the inhibition of BRAF in melanoma patients results in tumor infiltration by new lymphocytes, the response to treatment appears to be related to the presence of a pre-existing population of tumor-infiltrating T-cell clones

Real-Time 3D Image Guidance Using a Standard LINAC: Measured Motion, Accuracy, and Precision of the First Prospective Clinical Trial of Kilovoltage Intrafraction Monitoring-Guided Gating for Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Kilovoltage intrafraction monitoring (KIM) is a new real-time 3-dimensional image guidance method. Unlike previous real-time image guidance methods, KIM uses a standard linear accelerator without any additional equipment needed. The first prospective clinical trial of KIM is underway for prostate cancer radiation therapy. In this paper we report on the measured motion accuracy and precision using real-time KIM-guided gating. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Imaging and motion information from the first 200 fractions from 6 patient prostate cancer radiation therapy volumetric modulated arc therapy treatments were analyzed. A 3-mm/5-second action threshold was used to trigger a gating event where the beam is paused and the couch position adjusted to realign the prostate to the treatment isocenter. To quantify the in vivo accuracy and precision, KIM was compared with simultaneously acquired kV/MV triangulation for 187 fractions. RESULTS: KIM was successfully used in 197 of 200 fractions. Gating events occurred in 29 fractions (14.5%). In these 29 fractions, the percentage of beam-on time, the prostate displacement was >3 mm from the isocenter position, reduced from 73% without KIM to 24% with KIM-guided gating. Displacements >5 mm were reduced from 16% without KIM to 0% with KIM. The KIM accuracy was measured at <0.3 mm in all 3 dimensions. The KIM precision was <0.6 mm in all 3 dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical implementation of real-time KIM image guidance combined with gating for prostate cancer eliminates large prostate displacements during treatment delivery. Both in vivo KIM accuracy and precision are well below 1 mm

The first clinical treatment with kilovoltage intrafraction monitoring (KIM): A real-time image guidance method

PURPOSE: Kilovoltage intrafraction monitoring (KIM) is a real-time image guidance method that uses widely available radiotherapy technology, i.e., a gantry-mounted x-ray imager. The authors report on the geometric and dosimetric results of the first patient treatment using KIM which occurred on September 16, 2014. METHODS: KIM uses current and prior 2D x-ray images to estimate the 3D target position during cancer radiotherapy treatment delivery. KIM software was written to process kilovoltage (kV) images streamed from a standard C-arm linear accelerator with a gantry-mounted kV x-ray imaging system. A 120° pretreatment kV imaging arc was acquired to build the patient-specific 2D to 3D motion correlation. The kV imager was activated during the megavoltage (MV) treatment, a dual arc VMAT prostate treatment, to estimate the 3D prostate position in real-time. All necessary ethics, legal, and regulatory requirements were met for this clinical study. The quality assurance processes were completed and peer reviewed. RESULTS: During treatment, a prostate position offset of nearly 3 mm in the posterior direction was observed with KIM. This position offset did not trigger a gating event. After the treatment, the prostate motion was independently measured using kV/MV triangulation, resulting in a mean difference of less than 0.6 mm and standard deviation of less than 0.6 mm in each direction. The accuracy of the marker segmentation was visually assessed during and after treatment and found to be performing well. During treatment, there were no interruptions due to performance of the KIM software. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, KIM has been used for real-time image guidance during cancer radiotherapy. The measured accuracy and precision were both submillimeter for the first treatment fraction. This clinical translational research milestone paves the way for the broad implementation of real-time image guidance to facilitate the detection and correction of geometric and dosimetric errors, and resultant improved clinical outcomes, in cancer radiotherapy

Schroedinger equation for joint bidirectional motion in time

The conventional, time-dependent Schroedinger equation describes only unidirectional time evolution of the state of a physical system, i.e., forward or, less commonly, backward. This paper proposes a generalized quantum dynamics for the description of joint, and interactive, forward and backward time evolution within a physical system. [...] Three applications are studied: (1) a formal theory of collisions in terms of perturbation theory; (2) a relativistically invariant quantum field theory for a system that kinematically comprises the direct sum of two quantized real scalar fields, such that one field evolves forward and the other backward in time, and such that there is dynamical coupling between the subfields; (3) an argument that in the latter field theory, the dynamics predicts that in a range of values of the coupling constants, the expectation value of the vacuum energy of the universe is forced to be zero to high accuracy. [...]Comment: 30 pages, no figures. Related material is in quant-ph/0404012. Differs from published version by a few added remarks on the possibility of a large-scale-average negative energy density in spac