USING CALLING ACTIVITY TO PREDICT CALLING ACTIVITY: A CASE STUDY WITH THE ENDANGERED HOUSTON TOAD (BUFO [ANAXYRUS] HOUSTONENSIS)

Understanding anuran calling activity patterns is important for maximizing efficiency and value of call survey data collection and analyses. Previous studies have primarily focused on identifying and quantifying abiotic variables that influence anuran calling activity, and investigating relationships between calling activity and population estimates. In this study we investigated the use of a predictor pond approach to guide call survey effort. In this approach, calling activity at a subset of breeding sites (e.g., ponds) is used as a predictor of calling activity at additional breeding sites, with the goal being to minimize sampling effort while simultaneously maximizing sampling efficiency. We explored the efficiency of this approach using call survey data collected on the endangered Houston Toad (Bufo [Anaxyrus] houstonensis) at 15 known breeding ponds over 9 survey years. We found that if calling activity at 3 predictor ponds was used to decide if additional call surveys would occur at the remaining 12 ponds, we would have hypothetically correctly assumed calling activity was not occurring at non-predictor ponds on 92.1% of survey nights, and we would have hypothetically detected 93.9% of the total number of detected individuals over the 9 survey years. We found the predictor pond approach performed well in our case study, and believe it could be a valuable tool for many anuran monitoring programs

A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed

The need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale) climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M) was developed to assist planners and residents of the Salton Sea (SS) transboundary watershed (USA and Mexico) in making sound policy decisions regarding complex water-related issues. In order to develop the S4M with a higher degree of climate forecasting resolution, an in-depth analysis was conducted regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration for the semiarid region of the watershed. Weather station data were compiled for both precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1980 to 2004. Several logistic regression models were developed for determining the relationships among precipitation events, that is, duration and volume, and evapotranspiration levels. These data were then used to develop a stochastic weather generator for S4M. Analyses revealed that the cumulative effects and changes of ±10 percent in SS inflows can have significant effects on sea elevation and salinity. The aforementioned technique maintains the relationships between the historic frequency distributions of both precipitation and evapotranspiration, and not as separate unconnected and constrained variables

Integrating social power and political influence into models of social–ecological systems

Shaping policy for environmental sustainability depends upon decision-makers conceptualizing problems in ways that are either shared or similar enough to communicate about, diagnose, and act. The quality of this shared mental model of a social–ecological system (SES) is paramount to its effectiveness. Fundamentally, the mental model must integrate multiple kinds of knowledge about the system. If the decision-making body's assumptions about, description of, and solution for a problem do not to reflect the many ways stakeholders know a system, then the products of that decision-making process are viewed as illegitimate. Sustainability policy must fit the often subtle social order of the communities expected to implement it. In this essay, we discuss how a systems-based perspective can be a versatile tool for tackling these challenges of knowledge integration and decision-making in the context of a complex SES. Using social theory of Pierre Bourdieu, we construct a conceptual model that illustrates a route for integrating locally known social complexities (power, influence) gleaned from stakeholder interviews (N = 57). Stakeholders and end-user groups may dismiss any model that they perceive fails to satisfactorily account for specific, locally salient social nuances. Our approach leverages the overlapping notion of “capital” in social and ecological theory to demonstrate how reciprocal interactions between human and ecological systems can be adopted into tools for reaching viable solutions to SES problem

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.Keywords: Setophaga chrysoparia, Habitat conservation, Habitat dynamics, Extinction risk, Population dynamics, Multistate mode

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Strategies for communicating systems models

Sustainable environmental policies are rooted in knowledge and assumptions that decision-making authorities hold regarding specific social–ecological settings. These decision makers are increasingly informed by systems models. Diverse audiences for environmental science and sustainability policies magnify the importance of clear model communication. This essay offers a summary of best communication practices for situations in which bridging modelers' and non-modelers' conceptions of a given system—their respective mental models—is a principal challenge. Synthesizing social research from technical communication, educational psychology, and science communication disciplines, we discuss common areas of confusion in comprehending and explaining complex information, and present strategies model developers can use to ensure their model presentations are understandable and meaningful to audiences. We argue that accessible and socially adoptable explanations benefit from modelers listening to target audiences and anticipating how and why audiences may fail to understand aspects of a model

Habitat Classification Predictions on an Undeveloped Barrier Island Using a GIS-Based Landscape Modeling Approach

Landscape models are essential tools that link landscape patterns to ecological processes. Barrier island vegetation communities are strongly correlated with geomorphology, which makes elevation-based metrics suitable for developing a predictive habitat classification model in these systems. In this study, multinomial logistic regression is used to predict herbaceous, sparse, and woody habitat distributions on the North End of Assateague Island from slope, distance to shore, and elevation change, all of which are derived from digital elevation models (DEMs). Sparse habitats, which were generally found closest to shore in areas that are exposed to harsh conditions, had the highest predictive accuracy. Herbaceous and woody habitats occupied more protected inland settings and had lower predictive accuracies. A majority of woody cells were misclassified as herbaceous likely because of the similarity in the predictive parameter distributions. This relatively simple model is transparent and does not rely on subjective interpretations. This makes it an effective tool that can directly aid practitioners making coastal management decisions surrounding storm response planning and conservation management. The model results were used in a nutrient sequestration application to quantify carbon and nitrogen stored in barrier island vegetation. This represents an example of how the model results can be used to assign economic value of ecosystem services in a coastal system to justify different management and conservation initiatives

Integrating Social Power and Political Influence into Models of Social-Ecological Systems

Abstract Shaping policy for environmental sustainability depends upon decision-makers conceptualizing problems in ways that are either shared or similar enough to communicate about, diagnose, and act. The quality of this shared mental model of a social-ecological system (SES) is paramount to its effectiveness. Fundamentally, the mental model must integrate multiple kinds of knowledge about the system. If the decision-making body's assumptions about, description of, and solution for a problem do not to reflect the many ways stakeholders know a system, then the products of that decision-making process are viewed as illegitimate. Sustainability policy must fit the often subtle social order of the communities expected to implement it. In this essay, we discuss how a systemsbased perspective can be a versatile tool for tackling these challenges of knowledge integration and decision-making in the context of a complex SES. Using social theory of Pierre Bourdieu, we construct a conceptual model that illustrates a route for integrating locally known social complexities (power, influence) gleaned from stakeholder interviews (N = 57). Stakeholders and end-user groups may dismiss any model that they perceive fails to satisfactorily account for specific, locally salient social nuances. Our approach leverages the overlapping notion of "capital" in social and ecological theory to demonstrate how reciprocal interactions between human and ecological systems can be adopted into tools for reaching viable solutions to SES problems

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Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United State

What evidence exists on the ecological and physical effects of built structures in shallow, tropical coral reefs? A systematic map protocol

Abstract Background Shallow, tropical coral reefs face compounding threats from habitat degradation due to coastal development and pollution, impacts from storms and sea-level rise, and pulse disturbances like blast fishing, mining, dredging, and ship groundings that reduce coral reefs’ height and variability. One approach toward restoring coral reef structure from these threats is deploying built structures. Built structures range from engineered modules and repurposed materials to underwater sculptures and intentionally placed natural rocks. Restoration practitioners and coastal managers increasingly consider incorporating built structures, including nature-based solutions, into coral reef-related applications. Yet, synthesized evidence on the ecological and physical performance of built structure interventions across a variety of contexts (e.g., restoration, coastal protection, mitigation, tourism) is not readily available to guide decisions. To help inform management decisions, here we aim to document the global evidence base on the ecological and physical performance of built structures in shallow (≤ 30 m) tropical (35° N to 35° S latitude) coral ecosystems. The collated evidence base on use cases and associated ecological and physical outcomes of built structure interventions can help inform future consideration of built structures in reef restoration design, siting, and implementation. Method To discover evidence on the performance of built structures in coral reef-related applications, such as restoration, mitigation, and coastal protection, primary literature will be searched across indexing platforms, bibliographic databases, open discovery citation indexes, a web-based search engine, a novel literature discovery tool, and organizational websites. The geographic scope of the search is global, and there is no limitation to temporal scope. Primary literature will be screened first at the level of title and abstract and then at the full text level against defined eligibility criteria for the population, intervention, study type, and outcomes of interest. Metadata will be extracted from studies that pass both screening levels. The resulting data will be analyzed to determine the distribution and abundance of evidence. Results will be made publicly available and reported in a systematic map that includes a narrative description, identifies evidence clusters and gaps, and outlines future research directions on the use of built structures in coral reef-related applications