Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries

This study analyzes the factors that have facilitated Vietnam's recent rapid solar and wind power expansion and draws policy insights for other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A policy-mix analysis focusing on targets, incentive instruments, enabling regulations, and policy implementation is carried out, informed by semi-structured interviews with 20 Vietnamese experts during the period January–March 2021. A comparative analysis between Vietnam and the other ASEAN countries provides policy insights. Generous feed-in tariffs are found to have been a key driver, with income tax and land lease payment exemptions also being important. The main barriers include a high level of policy uncertainty and an underprepared transmission grid. Vietnam's case indicates that a strong price signal and a supportive investment environment can pave the way for rapid solar and wind power uptake. Another key lesson is that early preparation of transmission systems for solar and wind electricity is needed to maximize the potential for expanding the use of these technologies.ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT); ANU Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific Grand Challeng

Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar

This article assesses developing-countries’ power sector pathways toward net zero. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) combined with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO) is used to simulate 100% renewable energy integration into power systems. While many studies have been carried out using LEAP, few have utilized NEMO (the latest optimization add-on for LEAP) for analyzing net-zero pathways of the power sector in developing countries. NEMO enables the inclusion of energy storage capacity in the long-term simulation of power system capacity expansion. Storage is crucial for balancing intermittent renewable energy especially when high penetration of renewable energy is considered. The analysis is applied to three countries in the Global South: Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. These three cases are selected because they share important similarities (e.g., all three are below the energy poverty line and vulnerable to climate change impacts) but also have differences (notably, electrification rates), making them suitable for comparison. The LEAP-NEMO results indicate that the average electricity consumption per capita of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar will pass the energy poverty line by 2030, 2035, and 2045, respectively. On the supply side, the results show that the three countries can integrate 100% renewable energy into their power systems by realizing their hydropower potential and deploying non-hydro renewables. As expected, energy storage systems will have to play a critical role in balancing variable renewable energy with a total storage capacity of 16.1 GW by 2050. The annual average costs for the sustainable path range from 1.1% to 1.8% of GDP in 2020. While the approach presented in this article is applied to three specific developing countries, it can be replicated in other developing countries to analyze the integration of 100% renewable energy into the power system to achieve net zero emissions

Defining a ‘Just Energy Investment’ for the ASEAN Just Transition

Governments across the world have been updating their energy and climate policies since the 2015 Paris Agreement. One common feature is the advent of long-term plans for a net-zero economy for 2050 and also in some cases to 2060. To meet these long-term net-zero targets therefore, significant investment in new and clean energy infrastructure is needed. This research focuses on how to ensure that this required energy investment happens in a ‘just’ way, i.e., it contributes to fairness, equity, equality and inclusiveness. Recently, countries such as the United States, South Africa and Colombia have incorporated justice principles into their energy and climate policies. This research builds on this and is the first to assess justice in consideration of these time horizons along with its focus on the 10 South-East Asian nations, known as ASEAN countries. The data analysed here provides insight into how energy investments are developing in these countries, whether justice policies are aligned and therefore how to avoid energy policy failure. Further, as well as the conceptual advances, this research provides a model for a Just Energy Investment (JEI) Index based on the five energy justice principles. The analysis here focuses on countries of the Global South where there exists limited research that looks at the performance over time of the combined issue of energy investments and justice; this demonstrates this research as a significant contribution to the literature. This research marks a first step in delivering justice in new energy development as these economies build towards their 2050 and 2060 energy and climate targets

Cost–Benefit Analysis of HELE and Subcritical Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Technologies in Southeast Asia

A large potential exists in the Southeast Asia region for deployment of high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) electricity generation technologies. A cost–benefit analysis of HELE technologies compared to the less efficient subcritical electricity generation plants is thus carried out to find a persuasive scenario supporting quicker transition from subcritical stations towards HELE technologies in the region. A levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis is carried out for both technologies under four potential policy scenarios. Scenario 1 does not take into consideration any carbon pricing or costs associated with the desulphurization (deSOx) and denitrification (deNOx) facilities. Scenario 2 (Scenario 3) incorporates carbon pricing (costs associated with the deSOx and deNOx facilities), and Scenario 4 includes both carbon pricing and costs associated with the deSOx and deNOx facilities. Under each scenario, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the uncertainty affecting the future coal prices. This study demonstrates that HELE technologies are competitive against the subcritical plants under all four scenarios and both the technologies derive benefit from lifetime extensions and low coal prices. It is revealed that future deployments of HELE technologies can be best expedited by factoring in carbon pricing in LCOE costs of coal-fired power plants under Scenario 2

Assessing ASEAN’s Liberalized Electricity Markets: The Case of Singapore and the Philippines

The efforts towards the liberalization of electricity markets have sped up recently in some countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. This step of opening up the electricity markets is aimed at establishing competitive and efficient electricity markets that not only reduce electricity prices, but also support a sustainable future by reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation and promoting the wider adoption of renewable energy (RE)-based electricity generation. This paper assesses the effects of the electricity market liberalization process in Singapore and the Philippines on these expected outcomes during the period 2015–2020. The regression analysis results suggest that in the specified period, the liberalization of the electricity market in Singapore has delivered both household and industry electricity price reductions and improvement in the RE share. However, there is no significant effect of the electricity market liberalization process on the electricity generated CO2 emissions. For the same period, the results imply that with the electricity market liberalization process in the Philippines, the electricity prices for household consumers and electricity-generated CO2 emissions have increased. Additionally, the liberalization process has no significant impact on both the RE share and industry electricity prices in the Philippines. To overcome the obstacles and strike a balance between the expected outcomes, policy recommendations are given for ASEAN economies following the pathway of liberalized electricity markets

Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050

The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario