ADAPTING LEAST-SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MODELS TO FORECAST THE OUTCOME OF HORSERACES

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses’ winning probabilities. In order to adapt the least-square support vector regression model to this task, some free parameters have to be determined within a model selection step. Traditionally, this is accomplished by assessing candidate settings in terms of mean-squared error between estimated and actual finishing positions. This paper proposes an augmented approach to organise model selection for horserace forecasting using the concept of ranking borrowed from internet search engine evaluation. In particular, it is shown that the performance of forecasting models can be improved significantly if parameter settings are chosen on the basis of their normalised discounted cumulative gain (i.e. their ability to accurately rank the first few finishers of a race), rather than according to general purpose performance indicators which weight the ability to predict the rank order finish position of all horses equally

To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market

As the rate of information availability increases, the ability to use web-based technology to improve forecasting becomes increasingly important. We examine Virtual Globe technology and show how the arrival of unprecedented types of web-based information enhances the ability to forecast and can lead to significant, measurable economic benefits. Specifically, we use market prices in a betting market over an eighteen-year period to examine how new elevation data from Virtual Globes (VG) enabled improved forecasting decisions and we explore how this information diffused through the betting market. The results demonstrate how short-lived, profitable opportunities arise from the arrival of novel information, and the speed at which markets adapt over time to account fully for new data

Session 2-1-E: Betting market efficiency implications of different structures: bookmakers vs. exchanges

Outline (i) Quick definition of market efficiency (ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions… (iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets (iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data (v) Implications and conclusio

Predictability of bitcoin returns

This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors

Predictability of bitcoin returns

This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors

Missing link in community psychiatry: When a patient with schizophrenia was expelled from her home

Treatment and disposition of homeless patients with schizophrenia represent a great challenge in clinical practice. We report a case of this special population, and discuss the development of homelessness, the difficulty in disposition, their utilization of health services, and possible applications of mandatory community treatment in this group of patients. A 51-year-old homeless female was brought to an emergency department for left femur fracture caused by an assault. She was diagnosed with schizophrenia about 20 years ago but received little help from mental health services over the decades. During hospitalization, her psychotic symptoms were only partially responsive to treatment. Her family refused to handle caretaking duties. The social welfare system was mobilized for long-term disposition. Homeless patients with schizophrenia are characterized by family disruption, poor adherence to health care, and multiple emergency visits and hospitalization. We hope this article can provide information about the current mental health policy to medical personnel. It is possible that earlier intervention and better outcome can be achieved by utilizing mandatory community treatment in the future, as well as preventing patients with schizophrenia from losing shelters

Well I\u27ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value of Pedigree Information in Horse Racing

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker market for two year old races

Quantitative assessment of female pattern hair loss

AbstractBackground/ObjectiveThe conventional approach to evaluate female pattern hair loss (FPHL) is to visually inspect and score images of balding area (BA). However, visual estimates vary widely among different physicians, and may hinder objective assessment of hair loss and subsequent treatment response. For this reason, we propose a quantitative method using a computer-aided imaging system to help physicians evaluate the severity of FPHL clinically.MethodsWe use a series of digital image processing techniques to measure the width of central balding area of FPHL. A total of 184 photos were collected form 33 Chinese women with FPHL (stages I-2 to II-2 on the Savin scale). Each photograph underwent standardized exposure correction. The balding areas were detected through this computer system and then transformed into an equivalent ellipse by principal component analysis. The width of ellipse [balding width (BW)] was measured. Spearman's rank correlation was used to detect the correlation between our measurements and clinical staging.ResultsExposure correction resulted in a 16.97% (|BWcorrected − BWoriginal|/BWcorrected) difference in BW.‏ The average BW was 54.98 mm in all patients, 25.79 mm in type I-2 patients, 37.41 mm in I-3, 54.08 mm in I-4, 72.10 mm in II-1, and 85.53 mm in II-2. The values of BW were correlated with Savin scale stages clinically (rBW = 0.967), which was significant statistically (p < 0.05).ConclusionA computer-aided imaging system could be a useful tool to assist physicians to evaluate the balding area more precisely for clinical staging in FPHL. The BW instead of the balding area is simple to use clinically to represent the severity of FPHL