HIV/Aids epidemic in India and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis

After two phases of AIDS control activities in India, the third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. Our focus here is to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) in India so that the results can assist the NACP III planning team to determine appropriate targets to be activated during the project period (2007-2012). We have constructed a dynamical model that captures the mixing patterns between susceptibles and infectives in both low-risk and high-risk groups in the population. Our aim is to project the HIV estimates by taking into account general interventions for susceptibles and additional interventions, such as targeted interventions among high risk groups, provision of anti-retroviral therapy, and behavior change among HIV-positive individuals. Continuing the current level of interventions in NACP II, the model estimates there will be 5.06 million PLHA by the end of 2011. If 50 percent of the targets in NACP III are achieved by the end of the above period then about 0.8 million new infections will be averted in that year. The current status of the epidemic appears to be less severe compared to the trend observed in the late 1990s. The projections based on the second phase and the third phase of the NACP indicate prevention programmes which are directed towards the general and high-risk populations, and HIV-positive individuals will determine the decline or stabilization of the epidemic. Model based results are derived separately for the revised HIV estimates released in 2007. We perform a Monte Carlo procedure for sensitivity analysis of parameters and model validation. We also predict a positive role of implementation of anti-retroviral therapy treatment of 90 percent of the eligible people in the country. We present methods for obtaining disease progression parameters using convolution approaches. We also extend our models to age-structured populations

A comparison of hand grasp breakaway strengths and bare-handed grip strengths of the astronauts, SML 3 test subjects, and the subjects from the general population

Astronauts have the task of retrieving and deploying satellites and handling massive objects in a around the payload bay. Concerns were raised that manual handling of such massive objects might induce loads to the shuttle suits exceeding the design-certified loads. The Crew and Thermal Division of NASA JSC simulated the satellite handling tasks (Satellite Manload Tests 1 and 3) and determined the maximum possible load that a suited member could impart onto the suit. In addition, the tests revealed that the load to the suit by an astronaut could be calculated from the astronaut's maximum hand grasp breakaway strength. Thus, this study was conducted to document that hand grasp breakaway strengths of the astronauts who were scheduled to perform EVA during the upcoming missions. In addition, this study verified whether the SML 3 test results were sufficient for documenting the maximum possible load. An attempt was made to predict grasp strength from grip strength and hand anthropometry. Based on the results from this study, the SML 3 test results were deemed sufficient to document the maximum possible load on the suit. Finally, prediction of grasp strength from grip strength was not as accurate as expected. Hence, it was recommended that grasp strength be collected from the astronauts in order to obtain accurate load estimation

Prospects of inflation in delicate D-brane cosmology

We study D-brane inflation in a warped conifold background that includes brane-position dependent corrections for the nonperturbative superpotential. Instead of stabilizing the volume modulus chi at instantaneous minima of the potential and studying the inflation dynamics with an effective single field (radial distance between a brane and an anti-brane) phi, we investigate the multi-field inflation scenario involving these two fields. The two-field dynamics with the potential V(phi,chi) in this model is significantly different from the effective single-field description in terms of the field phi when the field chi is integrated out. The latter picture underestimates the total number of e-foldings even by one order of magnitude. We show that a correct single-field description is provided by a field psi obtained from a rotation in the two-field space along the background trajectory. This model can give a large number of e-foldings required to solve flatness and horizon problems at the expense of fine-tunings of model parameters. We also estimate the spectra of density perturbations and show that the slow-roll parameter eta_{psi psi}=M_{pl}^2 V_{,psi psi}/V in terms of the rotated field psi determines the spectral index of scalar metric perturbations. We find that it is generally difficult to satisfy, simultaneously, both constraints of the spectral index and the COBE normalization, while the tensor to scalar ratio is sufficiently small to match with observations.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, version to appear in Physical Review

A Novel Design of Multi-Chambered Biomass Battery

In this paper, a novel design of biomass battery has been introduced for providing electricity to meet the lighting requirements of rural household using biomass. A biomass battery is designed, developed and tested using cow dung as the raw material. This is done via anaerobic digestion of the cow dung, and power generation driven by the ions produced henceforth. The voltage and power output is estimated for the proposed system. It is for the first time that such a high voltage is obtained from cow dung fed biomass battery. The output characteristics of this novel battery design have also been compared with the previously designed battery

Evidence of reworking and resuspension of carbonates during last glacial maximum and early deglacial period along the southwest coast of India

A gravity core collected from the upper slope of southwest of Quilon at a water depth of 776 m (Lat: 8°12′263″N, Long: 76°28′281″E) was analysed for texture (carbonate free), calcium carbonate and organic carbon. Variation in silicic fraction seems to be controlled by silt, i.e., enrichment from 15 ka BP to 10 ka BP and then constant in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, the silicic fraction gets depleted compared to the Holocene section with a minimum around 21 ka BP. Clay content remains nearly constant except in the Holocene where it shows an enrichment. Carbonate content of less than 63 micron when computed by subtracting coarse fraction content from the total carbonate suggests that the total carbonates are mainly concentrated in the finer fraction. All these carbonate phases show an inverse relationship with silicic fraction except in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, CaCO3 dominates in sediments comprising more than 65%, such an increase is also seen in the coarse fraction. Coarse fraction from these sections contains abundant nodular type aggregates encrusting small forams. This period is marked by a high sedimentation rate comparable to Holocene. These parameters suggest that the productivity and precipitation have increased in the Holocene due to the intensification of the southwest monsoon. During the last glacial maximum and early deglacial period the high sedimentation rate indicates redeposition of the carbonates from the existing carbonate lithofacies situated between Quilon and Cape Comorin probably due to the slope instability