34 research outputs found
The constitutional referendum – another step towards a New Turkey. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 239 | 28.04.2017
On 16 April the citizens of Turkey voted in a national referendum to amend the constitution. This will lead to a radical strengthening of the president’s power. 51.4% of the voters backed the amendments. They will come into force after the next presidential and parliamentary election (scheduled for 2019). The amendments are an important step in the thorough reconstruction of the Republic of Turkey which began in 2002. They will strengthen the position of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in legal terms, and – with all the controversies that entails – will adjust the legal status to the situation on the ground. The outcome of the referendum helps to temporarily stabilise the internal situation in Turkey and allows the country to be more active on the international arena; this includes making another attempt to thoroughly revise its relations with the EU. However, the amendment of the constitution is of a technical nature and is a means rather than an end in the process of building a New Turkey. Thus the calming of the situation in Turkey is temporary
The war of nerves with Iran - consequences for the South Caucasus and Russia. OSW Commentary No. 75, 2012-04-25
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme have risen considerably in recent
months. This has been visible in numerous threats of – and much speculation
about – an imminent Israeli (and US) attack on Iran’s nuclear
installations. In this context, the support for the attacks that the countries
of the South Caucasus (and Azerbaijan in particular) could provide has
been the subject of lively debate, as has been the prospect of a Russian
political and military offensive in the Caucasus in response to the attacks
on Iran. It seems that the ongoing war campaign in the media has been
aimed primarily at putting pressure on Iran and the international community
to find a political solution to the Iranian problem. This also applies to
the Caucasus’s involvement in the campaign.
Given the outcome of the Istanbul round of talks on a political solution to
the Iranian issue (14 April), which warrants moderate optimism, the threat
of a conflict now appears more distant and this also indirectly proves the
effectiveness of the campaign. The war of nerves with Iran, however, is already
now actually affecting the stability of the Southern Caucasus. While it
seems that Azerbaijan is not Israel’s partner in the preparations to attacks,
and that there is no real link between the Iranian problem and the ongoing
and planned movements of Russian troops in the Caucasus, the tensions
between Iran and Azerbaijan are indeed high. Moreover, the global image of
the Caucasus is deteriorating, the USA’s position in the region is becoming
more complicated, and Russia’s room for manoeuvre is expanding
Turkey and the Kurdish problem; new approaches in the face of the Middle East crises. Point of View No. 30, February 2013
From the Introduction. For almost a hundred years (since World War I and the disintegration
of the Ottoman Empire) stability – or rather, the
permanent threat to stability – has been a key challenge for
the Middle East. One of the central elements of this threat has
been the so-called Kurdish problem, that is, the issues that
continually arise between the states of the region and the
Kurdish minority living in the area, as well as the tensions
among the individual states caused by a range of issues related
to local Kurds. The country most affected by the Kurdish problem
is Turkey
The crisis in Iraq and the twists and turns of Turkish Middle East policy. OSW Commentary No. 142, 29.07.2014
The spectacular offensive by Islamic radicals in Iraq this June has led the country to the verge
of collapse, and is another scene of the deep crisis in the Middle East, in which Turkey is entangled.
The immediate consequence of this is a severe crisis of prestige after the kidnapping by
terrorists of Turkish diplomats and Ankara’s inability to resolve the situation; in the long term
consequences include escalation of the Kurdish problem, and a further increase in threats to
the security of Turkey itself as well as the fundamental principles of its foreign policy. Both
Ankara’s options and its political will to actively respond to the crisis are extremely limited.
Yet again in recent years, the current crisis, the broader situation in the Middle East, and finally
the position of Turkey in the region elude unambiguous assessments and forecasts – these
are prevented by the scale and growth of the reappraisals and tensions in the region. The only
undoubted fact is that Turkey is strategically and irreversibly entangled in the Middle East’s
problems, which are an important factor affecting the transformation of the state which
the ruling AKP is implementing; and in the near future, this state of affairs will only deepen
Reintegration or Reconquest? Georgia's policy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the context of the internal and international situation. OSW Point of View, May 2008
The conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been Georgia's main security problem since the beginning of the 1990s, and, along with the Armenian-Azeri conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, have made up the main security problems in the South Caucasus
Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of revolution. OSW Commentary 2020-10-29.
On 15 October Kyrgyzstan’s president, Sooronobay Jeenbekov, resigned from his position and his duties were taken over by the opposition leader, Sadyr Japarov. The change in power was brought about by large-scale protests which broke out on 5 October, the day after the election; subsequently the protesters took over the main buildings of the central administration in Bishkek and released opposition leaders who had been imprisoned (among them Japarov). The demonstrations, which were forceful but not long-lasting, resulted in a compromise of sorts which led to changes in the highest state positions, the announcement of an early presidential election and a rerun of the parliamentary election.
Despite the situation in the country (particularly in the capital) having been restored to one of relative stability, Kyrgyzstan is still struggling with grave problems: a crisis of the political system, social tensions and a dismal economic situation that is further exacerbated by the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current state of affairs presents a serious challenge both for Russia and China, whose respective interests have an important impact on the politics of Kyrgyzstan and the entire region of Central Asia
Nagorno-Karabkh - conflict unfreezing. OSW Commentary No. 65, 2011-10-26
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh poses the greatest challenge to the security and stability of the Southern Caucasus. Although a ceasefire has been in place and a peace process under way since 1994, there is growing concern that the threat of the resumption of military action is growing.
Proof of that is provided by, for example, the arms race dictated by Azerbaijan and its use of war rhetoric. A major factor, in addition to Azerbaijan’s increasing potential and ambitions, which is destabilising the situation concerning Karabakh seems to be the changing geopolitical situation in this region. Although the outbreak of a new war over Nagorno-Karabakh seems unlikely (as this would be risky to all the actors involved) within the next year, if the current trends continue, this will be difficult to avoid in the future. A further increase in the tension, and especially a military conflict (whatever its outcome), will lead to deep changes in the situation in the Southern Caucasus and in the policies of the countries which are active in this region
The S-400 for Turkey The crisis in Turkish-American relations escalates. OSW Commentary Number 305, 12 June 2019
In late May and early June 2019, the contract for Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-made missile
launchers which make up the S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missile system entered the
final stage of its implementation. This has been confirmed by unequivocal statements from
the Turkish leadership, the fact that the first group of servicemen (system operators) have
undergone training in Russia, and the announced arrival in Turkey of the Russian technical
personnel responsible for the system’s assembly. The first S-400 launchers are likely to be dispatched
to Turkey as early as July (around six months sooner than the planned supply date).
At the same time the US, which has blocked Turkey’s attempts to purchase anti-aircraft missile
systems from Russia and China for years, is stepping up its pressure on Turkey; for example, it
has announced that the unprecedented sanctions package prepared last year will be imposed
if the Russian-Turkish deal is finalised.
The crisis around the S-400 is a manifestation of the deep crisis in Turkish-American relations
that has been mounting for several years. More broadly speaking, it is an element of
the crisis in the relationship between Turkey and the West, and de facto amounts to a major
aggravation of the situation. The absence of will to make concessions on both sides makes
any compromise between Ankara and Washington unlikely. At stake are the cohesion of NATO,
the present and future nature of the US’s leading role, and Turkey’s place in its relations with
the West and Russia. To some degree, all this affects the position of Russia, which itself is
interested in undermining the positions of NATO and the US