Evolution of sociality by natural selection on variances in reproductive fitness: evidence from a social bee

Background The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a statistical principle that states that as the number of repeated samples from any population increase, the variance among sample means will decrease and means will become more normally distributed. It has been conjectured that the CLT has the potential to provide benefits for group living in some animals via greater predictability in food acquisition, if the number of foraging bouts increases with group size. The potential existence of benefits for group living derived from a purely statistical principle is highly intriguing and it has implications for the origins of sociality. Results Here we show that in a social allodapine bee the relationship between cumulative food acquisition (measured as total brood weight) and colony size accords with the CLT. We show that deviations from expected food income decrease with group size, and that brood weights become more normally distributed both over time and with increasing colony size, as predicted by the CLT. Larger colonies are better able to match egg production to expected food intake, and better able to avoid costs associated with producing more brood than can be reared while reducing the risk of under-exploiting the food resources that may be available. Conclusion These benefits to group living derive from a purely statistical principle, rather than from ecological, ergonomic or genetic factors, and could apply to a wide variety of species. This in turn suggests that the CLT may provide benefits at the early evolutionary stages of sociality and that evolution of group size could result from selection on variances in reproductive fitness. In addition, they may help explain why sociality has evolved in some groups and not others

Relationship between Greenland Ice Sheet surface speed and modeled effective pressure

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 (2018): 2258-2278, doi:10.1029/2017JF004581.We use a numerical subglacial hydrology model and remotely sensed observations of Greenland Ice Sheet surface motion to test whether the inverse relationship between effective pressure and regional melt season surface speeds observed at individual sites holds on a regional scale. The model is forced with daily surface runoff estimates for 2009 and 2010 across an ~8,000‐km2 region on the western margin. The overall subglacial drainage system morphology develops similarly in both years, with subglacial channel networks growing inland from the ice sheet margin and robust subglacial pathways forming over bedrock ridges. Modeled effective pressures are compared to contemporaneous regional surface speeds derived from TerraSAR‐X imagery to investigate spatial relationships. Our results show an inverse spatial relationship between effective pressure and ice speed in the mid‐melt season, when surface speeds are elevated, indicating that effective pressure is the dominant control on surface velocities in the mid‐melt season. By contrast, in the early and late melt seasons, when surface speeds are slower, effective pressure and surface speed have a positive relationship. Our results suggest that outside of the mid‐melt season, the influence of effective pressures on sliding speeds may be secondary to the influence of driving stress and spatially variable bed roughness.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Grant Number: NXX10AI30G National Science Foundation (NSF) American Geophysical Union Horton Research Grant; National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs (NSF‐OPP) Grant Numbers: PLR‐1418256, ARC‐1023364, ARC‐0520077; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI)2019-03-2

Seismicity on the western Greenland Ice Sheet : surface fracture in the vicinity of active moulins

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 120 (2015): 1082–1106, doi:10.1002/2014JF003398.We analyzed geophone and GPS measurements collected within the ablation zone of the western Greenland Ice Sheet during a ~35 day period of the 2011 melt season to study changes in ice deformation before, during, and after a supraglacial lake drainage event. During rapid lake drainage, ice flow speeds increased to ~400% of winter values, and icequake activity peaked. At times >7 days after drainage, this seismicity developed variability over both diurnal and longer periods (~10 days), while coincident ice speeds fell to ~150% of winter values and showed nightly peaks in spatial variability. Approximately 95% of all detected seismicity in the lake basin and its immediate vicinity was triggered by fracture propagation within near-surface ice (<330 m deep) that generated Rayleigh waves. Icequakes occurring before and during drainage frequently were collocated with the down flow (west) end of the primary hydrofracture through which the lake drained but shifted farther west and outside the lake basin after the drainage. We interpret these results to reveal vertical hydrofracture opening and local uplift during the drainage, followed by enhanced seismicity and ice flow on the downstream side of the lake basin. This region collocates with interferometric synthetic aperture radar-measured speedup in previous years and could reflect the migration path of the meltwater supplied to the bed by the lake. The diurnal seismic signal can be associated with nightly reductions in surface melt input that increase effective basal pressure and traction, thereby promoting elevated strain in the surficial ice.Research by J. Carmichael was supported by a NASA NESSF Fellowship grant NNX08AU82H and NSF grant ANT-0424589. The fieldwork and additional analyses were supported by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs (NSF-OPP) through ARC-1023382, awarded to I. Joughin, and ARC-1023364, awarded to S. B. Das and M. D. Behn. Matt King is a recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project number FT110100207).2015-12-2

La culture du vanillier

We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no statistically significant relationship between runoff season characteristics and ice flow velocities within a given year or season. Over the 7 year time series, annual velocities at North Lake decrease at an average rate of −0.9 ± 1.1 m yr−2, consistent with the negative trend in annual velocities observed in neighboring regions over recent decades. We find that net runoff integrated over several preceding years has a negative correlation with annual velocities, similar to findings from the two other available decadal records of ice velocity in western Greenland. However, we argue that this correlation is not necessarily evidence for a direct hydrologic mechanism acting on the timescale of multiple years but could be a statistical construct. Finally, we stress that neither the decadal slowdown trend nor the negative correlation between velocity and integrated runoff is predicted by current ice-sheet models, underscoring that these models do not yet capture all the relevant feedbacks between runoff and ice dynamics needed to predict long-term trends in ice sheet flow

Can the fire and rescue service work with primary care to improve identification of mental health problems in older adults?

Mental ill-health in older adults (aged 60 years and over) is often under-diagnosed and under-treated. Older adults are less likely to access mental health services due to perceived stigma and fear of being a burden. Non-traditional providers of healthcare, such as the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) may provide a possible solution to facilitate early detection of problems and help-seeking among older adults, especially in the context of pressured statutory services. The aim of this study was to examine whether and how Fire and Rescue Service Home Fire Safety Visits (HFSV) could be optimized to include detection and sign-posting for mental health problems, particularly anxiety and depression, in older adults. A mixed-method qualitative study took place in the West Midlands, UK, in 2022. This study involved focus groups (n=24), and interviews with Fire and Rescue Service staff (n=4), to develop an in-depth, contextual understanding of acceptability and feasibility of expanding the HFSV to include identification of anxiety and depression. FRS staff were open to expanding their HFSVs to include more on mental health, providing they had sufficient training and support from partner agencies in primary and social care settings to accept referrals for service users (SU) presenting with symptoms of anxiety and/or depression. The positive reputation of FRS staff and engagement with older adults suggests that Home Fire Safety Visits could support the detection of anxiety and depression in older adults and appropriate sign-posting to other services including primary care

Annotated Bibliography of Research in the Teaching of English

Since 2003, RTE has published the annual “Annotated Bibliography of Research in the Teaching of English,” and we are proud to share these curated and annotated citations once again. The goal of the annual bibliography is to offer a synthesis of the research published in the area of English language arts within the past year that may be of interest to RTE readers. Abstracted citations and those featured in the “Other Related Research” sections were published, either in print or online, between June 2019 and June 2020. The bibliography is divided into nine subject area sections. A three-person team of scholars with diverse research interests and background experiences in preK–16 educational settings reviewed and selected the manuscripts for each section using library databases and leading empirical journals. Each team abstracted significant contributions to the body of peer-reviewed studies that addressed the current research questions and concerns in their topic area

Biogeographic survey of soil bacterial communities across Antarctica

Background: Antarctica and its unique biodiversity are increasingly at risk from the effects of global climate change and other human influences. A significant recent element underpinning strategies for Antarctic conservation has been the development of a system of Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). The datasets supporting this classification are, however, dominated by eukaryotic taxa, with contributions from the bacterial domain restricted to Actinomycetota and Cyanobacteriota. Nevertheless, the ice-free areas of the Antarctic continent and the sub-Antarctic islands are dominated in terms of diversity by bacteria. Our study aims to generate a comprehensive phylogenetic dataset of Antarctic bacteria with wide geographical coverage on the continent and sub-Antarctic islands, to investigate whether bacterial diversity and distribution is reflected in the current ACBRs. Results: Soil bacterial diversity and community composition did not fully conform with the ACBR classification. Although 19% of the variability was explained by this classification, the largest differences in bacterial community composition were between the broader continental and maritime Antarctic regions, where a degree of structural overlapping within continental and maritime bacterial communities was apparent, not fully reflecting the division into separate ACBRs. Strong divergence in soil bacterial community composition was also apparent between the Antarctic/sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic mainland. Bacterial communities were partially shaped by bioclimatic conditions, with 28% of dominant genera showing habitat preferences connected to at least one of the bioclimatic variables included in our analyses. These genera were also reported as indicator taxa for the ACBRs. Conclusions: Overall, our data indicate that the current ACBR subdivision of the Antarctic continent does not fully reflect bacterial distribution and diversity in Antarctica. We observed considerable overlap in the structure of soil bacterial communities within the maritime Antarctic region and within the continental Antarctic region. Our results also suggest that bacterial communities might be impacted by regional climatic and other environmental changes. The dataset developed in this study provides a comprehensive baseline that will provide a valuable tool for biodiversity conservation efforts on the continent. Further studies are clearly required, and we emphasize the need for more extensive campaigns to systematically sample and characterize Antarctic and sub-Antarctic soil microbial communities. APsmQ8MphSAgg4BzZyqdNTVideo Abstrac

The Impact and Cost of Scaling up GeneXpert MTB/RIF in South Africa

We estimated the incremental cost and impact on diagnosis and treatment uptake of national rollout of Xpert MTB/RIF technology (Xpert) for the diagnosis of pulmonary TB above the cost of current guidelines for the years 2011 to 2016 in South Africa.We parameterised a population-level decision model with data from national-level TB databases (n = 199,511) and implementation studies. The model follows cohorts of TB suspects from diagnosis to treatment under current diagnostic guidelines or an algorithm that includes Xpert. Assumptions include the number of TB suspects, symptom prevalence of 5.5%, annual suspect growth rate of 10%, and 2010 public-sector salaries and drug and service delivery costs. Xpert test costs are based on data from an in-country pilot evaluation and assumptions about when global volumes allowing cartridge discounts will be reached.At full scale, Xpert will increase the number of TB cases diagnosed per year by 30%-37% and the number of MDR-TB cases diagnosed by 69%-71%. It will diagnose 81% of patients after the first visit, compared to 46% currently. The cost of TB diagnosis per suspect will increase by 55% to USD 60-61 and the cost of diagnosis and treatment per TB case treated by 8% to USD 797-873. The incremental capital cost of the Xpert scale-up will be USD 22 million and the incremental recurrent cost USD 287-316 million over six years.Xpert will increase both the number of TB cases diagnosed and treated and the cost of TB diagnosis. These results do not include savings due to reduced transmission of TB as a result of earlier diagnosis and treatment initiation

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups. METHODS: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018. RESULTS: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city. CONCLUSIONS: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data