Rising Prices under Declining Preferences: The Case of the U.S. Print Newspaper Industry

Between 2006 and 2011, daily print newspapers in the U.S. lost 20% of their paid subscribers, partly due to increasing availability of alternative sources of news, such as free content provided on newspaper websites and by news aggregators such as Yahoo. However, contrary to the expectation that firms respond to softening demand by lowering prices, newspapers increased subscription prices by 40-60% during this period. In this paper, we explain and quantify the factors responsible for these price increases. We calibrate models of readership and advertising demand using data from a top-50 U.S. regional print newspaper. Conditional on these demand models, we calibrate the newspaper’s optimal pricing equations, and assess whether the increase in subscription prices are mainly rationalized by: a) the decline in readers’ willingness to pay (WTP) in the presence of heterogeneity among subscribers, or b) the newspaper’s reduced incentive to subsidize readers at the expense of advertisers, due to softening demand for newspaper advertising. We find that the decline in the ability of the newspaper to subsidize readers by extracting surplus from advertisers explains most of the increase in subscription prices. Of the three available subscription options (Daily, Weekend, and Sunday only), subscription prices increased more steeply for the Daily option, a pattern consistent with the view that newspapers are driving away low valuation weekday readers while preserving Sunday readership and the corresponding ad revenues. Thus, our research augments theoretical propositions in two-sided markets by providing a formal empirical approach to unraveling the relative importance of the role played by agents on the subsidy and demand side in determining prices.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136097/1/1340_Sriram.pd

De-implementation of low value castration for men with prostate cancer: protocol for a theory-based, mixed methods approach to minimizing low value androgen deprivation therapy (DeADT)

Abstract Background Men with prostate cancer are often castrated with long-acting injectable drugs termed androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Although many benefit, ADT is also used in patients with little or nothing to gain. The best ways to stop this practice are unknown, and range from blunt pharmacy restrictions to informed decision-making. This study will refine and pilot two different de-implementation strategies for reducing ADT use among those unlikely to benefit in preparation for a comparative effectiveness trial. Methods/design This innovative mixed methods research program has three aims. Aim 1: To assess preferences and barriers for de-implementation of chemical castration in prostate cancer. Guided by the theoretical domains framework (TDF), urologists and patients from facilities with the highest and lowest castration rates across the VA will be interviewed to identify key preferences and de-implementation barriers for reducing castration as prostate cancer treatment. This qualitative work will inform Aim 2 while gathering rich information for two proposed pilot intervention strategies. Aim 2: To use a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a novel barrier prioritization approach, for de-implementation strategy tailoring. The investigators will conduct national surveys of urologists to prioritize key barriers identified in Aim 1 for stopping incident castration as localized prostate cancer treatment using a DCE experiment design. These quantitative results will identify the most important barriers to be addressed through tailoring of two pilot de-implementation strategies in preparation for Aim 3 piloting. Aim 3: To pilot two tailored de-implementation strategies to reduce castration as localized prostate cancer treatment. Building on findings from Aims 1 and 2, two de-implementation strategies will be piloted. One strategy will focus on formulary restriction at the organizational level and the other on physician/patient informed decision-making at different facilities. Outcomes will include acceptability, feasibility, and scalability in preparation for an effectiveness trial comparing these two widely varying de-implementation strategies. Discussion Our innovative approach to de-implementation strategy development is directly aligned with state-of-the-art complex implementation intervention development and implementation science. This work will broadly advance de-implementation science for low value cancer care, and foster participation in our de-implementation evaluation trial by addressing barriers, facilitators, and concerns through pilot tailoring. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03579680 , First Posted July 6, 2018.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146541/1/13012_2018_Article_833.pd

Essays on the dynamics of brand equity

Management of brand equity has come to be viewed as critical to the optimal long-term performance of a brand. In the first essay of this dissertation, we present a methodology for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity using store-level scanner data. We estimate brand equity using a random coefficients logit demand model calibrated on store-level scanner data that accounts for unobserved consumer heterogeneity. We track brand equity estimates over time in two consumer packaged goods categories that experienced several new introductions of brands and product modifications during the time period of our empirical investigation. Using these tracked measures, we also study the impact of marketing actions such as advertising, sales promotions, and product innovations on brand equity. In the second essay of this dissertation, we develop and estimate a state-space model based on the Kalman filter that captures the dynamics in brand equity as influenced by its drivers. By integrating the Kalman filter with the random coefficients logit demand model, our estimation allows us to model consumer heterogeneity using store-level data as well as capture the dynamics in brand equity. Using these demand estimates, we infer both the short-term and long-term impact of changes in advertising and sales promotions on market share and profitability. We further investigate different strategies for reallocating the budgets between advertising and sales promotions without increasing the total marketing budget that can increase the long-term profitability of the brands. In the third essay of this dissertation, we develop a demand model for technology products that captures the effect of changes in the portfolio of models offered by a brand as well as the influence of the dynamics in its intrinsic preference on that brand\u27s performance. To accommodate the presence of multiple models at different points in time from a few (stable) brands, we use a nested logit model with the brand at the upper level and its various models at the lower level of the nest. The attractiveness of a brand\u27s product line, reflected in the inclusive value of the lower level of the nest, changes over time with entry and exit of new models and with changes in attribute and price levels. At the upper level of the nest, brand-level preferences are driven by the inclusive value as well as by the intrinsic preferences for each of the brands. To allow for time-varying intrinsic preferences at the brand level, we use a state-space model based on the Kalman filter which captures the influence of marketing actions such as brand-level advertising on the dynamics of intrinsic brand preferences. We estimate our model parameters on data for the U.S. digital camera market. Overall, we find that the effect of dynamics in the intrinsic brand preference relative to that of the dynamics in the inclusive values varies across brands. Assuming plausible profit margins, we evaluate the effect of increasing the advertising expenditures for each of the brands that respond to advertising and find that these brands can increase their profitability by increasing their advertising expenditures. We also analyze the impact of modifying a camera model\u27s attributes on its profits. Such an analysis could potentially be used to evaluate if product development efforts would be profitable