Discrete versus continuous domain models for disease mapping

The main goal of disease mapping is to estimate disease risk and identify high-risk areas. Such analyses are hampered by the limited geographical resolution of the available data. Typically the available data are counts per spatial unit and the common approach is the Besag--York--Molli{\'e} (BYM) model. When precise geocodes are available, it is more natural to use Log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs). In a simulation study mimicking childhood leukaemia incidence using actual residential locations of all children in the canton of Z\"urich, Switzerland, we compare the ability of these models to recover risk surfaces and identify high-risk areas. We then apply both approaches to actual data on childhood leukaemia incidence in the canton of Z\"urich during 1985-2015. We found that LGCPs outperform BYM models in almost all scenarios considered. Our findings suggest that there are important gains to be made from the use of LGCPs in spatial epidemiology.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 2 Table

A Hedonic Analysis of Cattle Prices in the Central Corridor of West Africa: Implications for Production and Marketing Decisions

Detailed weekly sales transactions data for the period January 2000-June 2001 from three frontier markets in the central corridor of West Africa were analyzed to identify the factors influencing short-run, intra-year cattle prices. The empirical results indicate that in addition to market location and seasonality of supply and sales, market participants show systemic preferences for specific cattle attributes (sex, weight, condition and finish) and are willing to pay premium prices consistent with their preferences. Communicating this information to producers can assist them to tailor their production and marketing decisions to meet market expectations and thereby improve their competitiveness, profitability and intra-regional livestock trade. Innovative policy and institutional approaches to improve market information dissemination and ease other constraints that tend to dampen supply response, even in the face of favorable prices, are discussed in the paper.livestock markets, hedonic price model, market information, West Africa, Livestock Production/Industries, C21, D4, Q13, Q17,

Nuclear power plants and childhood leukaemia: lessons from the past and future directions

In the 1980s, leukaemia clusters were discovered around nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom. This raised public concern about the risk of childhood leukaemia near nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, the topic has been well-studied, but methodological limitations make results difficult to interpret. Our review aims to: (1.) summarise current evidence on the relationship between NPPs and risk of childhood leukaemia, with a focus on the Swiss CANUPIS (Childhood cancer and nuclear power plants in Switzerland) study; (2.) discuss the limitations of previous research; and (3.) suggest directions for future research. There are various reasons that previous studies produced inconclusive results. These include: inadequate study designs and limited statistical power due to the low prevalence of exposure (living near a NPP) and outcome (leukaemia); lack of accurate exposure estimates; limited knowledge of the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, particularly of vulnerable time windows and latent periods; use of residential location at time of diagnosis only and lack of data on address histories; and inability to adjust for potential confounders. We conclude that risk of childhood leukaemia around NPPs should continue to be monitored and that study designs should be improved and standardised. Data should be pooled internationally to increase the statistical power. More research needs to be done on other putative risk factors for childhood cancer such as low-dose ionizing radiation, exposure to certain chemicals and exposure to infections. Studies should be designed to allow examining multiple exposures

Measurements and determinants of children's exposure to background gamma radiation in Switzerland.

Epidemiological studies of children's cancer risks associated with background gamma radiation exposure have used geographic exposure models to estimate exposure at their locations of residence. We measured personal exposure to background gamma radiation, and we investigated the extent to which it was associated with children's whereabouts. We collected data on whereabouts and exposure to background gamma radiation over a 5-day period among children aged 4-15 years in Switzerland. We used D-Shuttle dosimeters to measure children's exposure, and we asked parents to write their children's activities in diaries. We used Poisson mixed-effects and linear regression models to investigate the association of hourly and overall doses, respectively, with children's reported whereabouts. During the observed time, 149 participating children spent 66% indoors at home; 19% indoors away from home; and 15% outdoors. The mean personal exposure was 85.7 nSv/h (range 52.3 nSv/h-145 nSv/h). Exposure was 1.077 (95% CI 1.067, 1.087) times higher indoors than outdoors and varied by building material and (predicted) outdoor dose rates. Our study provides detailed information about children's patterns of exposure to background gamma radiation in Switzerland. Dwelling building materials and outdoor dose rates are important determinants of children's exposure. Future epidemiological studies may benefit from including information about building materials

Childhood cancer and traffic-related air pollution in Switzerland: A nationwide census-based cohort study.

Motor vehicle exhaust is a major contributor to air pollution, and exposure to benzene or other carcinogenic components may increase cancer risks. We aimed to investigate the association between traffic-related air pollution and risk of childhood cancer in a nationwide cohort study in Switzerland. We identified incident cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry diagnosed < 16 years of age between 1990 and 2015 and linked them probabilistically with the census-based Swiss National Cohort study. We developed land use regression models to estimate annual mean ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and benzene outside 1.4 million children's homes. We used risk-set sampling to facilitate the analysis of time-varying exposure and fitted conditional logistic regression models adjusting for neighborhood socio-economic position, level of urbanization, and background ionizing radiation. We included 2,960 cancer cases in the analyses. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for exposure to NO2 per 10 μg/m3 were 1.00 (95%-CI 0.88-1.13) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 1.31 (95%-CI 1.00-1.71) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Using exposure lagged by 1 to 5 years instead of current exposure attenuated the effect for AML. The adjusted HR for exposure to benzene per 1 μg/m3 was 1.03 (95%-CI 0.86-1.23) for ALL and 1.29 (95%-CI 0.86-1.95) for AML. We also observed increased HRs for other diagnostic groups, notably non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Our study adds to the existing evidence that exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with an increased risk of childhood leukemia, particularly AML

Association of lung clearance index with survival in individuals with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND The lung clearance index (LCI) assesses global ventilation inhomogeneity and is a sensitive biomarker of airway function in cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. OBJECTIVES We examined the association of LCI with the risk of death or lung transplantation (LTX) in individuals with CF. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis in a cohort of individuals with CF aged≥5 years with LCI and FEV1 measurements performed between 1980 and 2006. The outcome was time until death or LTX. We used the earliest available LCI and FEV1 values in a Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for demographic and clinical variables. For sensitivity analyses, we used the mean of the first three LCI and FEV1 measurements, stratified the cohort based on age, and investigated individuals with normal FEV1. RESULTS In total, 237 individuals with CF with a mean (range) age of 13.9 (5.6-41.0) years were included. The time-to-event analysis accrued 3813 person-years and 94 (40%) individuals died or received LTX. Crude hazard ratios [95% CI] were 1.04 [1.01-1.06] per one z-score increase in LCI and 1.25 [1.11-1.41] per one z-score decrease in FEV1. After adjusting LCI and FEV1 mutually in addition to sex, age, BMI and the number of hospitalisations, hazard ratios were 1.04 [1.01-1.07] for LCI, and 1.12 [0.95-1.33] for FEV1. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results and using the mean LCI strengthened the associations. CONCLUSIONS Increased ventilation inhomogeneity is associated with greater risk of death or LTX. Our data support LCI as novel surrogate of survival in individuals with CF

Outcomes of Antiretroviral Therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: Latent Class Analysis

An in-depth understanding of the different groups that make up the HIV-infected population should inform prevention and care. Using latent class analysis (LCA) we identified seven groups with similar socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics at enrolment in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: older gay men, younger gay men, older heterosexual men, injection drug users, single migrants, migrant women in partnerships and heterosexual men and women. Outcomes of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analyzed in 1,633 patients starting ART. Compared to older gay men, the probability of a virologic response to ART was reduced in single migrants, in older heterosexual men and in IDUs. Loss to follow-up was higher in single migrants and IDUs, and mortality was increased in older heterosexual men and IDUs. Socio-behavioral groups identified by LCA allow insights above what can be gleaned from traditional transmission groups, and may identify patients who could benefit from targeted intervention