The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Throughout history, technological development and economic growth has led to greater prosperity and overall standard of living for many people in society. However, along with the benefits of economic development comes the social responsibility of minimizing the mortality and morbidity health impacts associated with human activities, safeguarding ecosystems, protecting world cultural heritage and preventing integrity and amenity losses of man-made environments. Effects are often irreversible, extend way beyond national borders and can occur over a long time lag. At current pollutant levels, the monetized impacts carry a significant burden to society, on the order of few percent of a country’s GDP, and upwards to 10% of GDP for countries in transition. A recent study for the European Union found that the aggregate damage burden from industrial air pollution alone costs every man, woman and child between 200 and 330 € a year, of which CO2 emissions contributed 40 to 60% (EEA 2011). In a sustainable world, an assessment of the environmental impacts (and damage costs) imposed by man\'s decisions on present and future generations is necessary when addressing the cost effectiveness of local and national policy options that aim at improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for calculating such adverse public health outcomes arising from exposure to routine atmospheric pollutant emissions using a simplified methodology, referred to as the Uniform World Model (UWM). The UWM clearly identifies the most relevant factors of the analysis, is easy to implement and requires only a few key input parameters that are easily obtained by the analyst, even to someone living in a developing country. The UWM is exact in the limit all parameters are uniformly distributed, due to mass conservation. The current approach can be applied to elevated and mobile sources. Its robustness has been validated (typical deviations are well within the ±50% range) by comparison with much more detailed air quality and environmental impact assessment models, such as ISC3, CALPUFF, EMEP and GAINS. Several comparisons illustrating the wide range of applicability of the UWM are presented in the paper, including estimation of mean concentrations at the local, country and continental level and calculation of local and country level intake factors and marginal damage costs of primary particulate matter and inorganic secondary aerosols. Relationships are also provided for computing spatial concentration profiles and cumulative impact or damage cost distributions. Assessments cover sources located in the USA, Europe, East Asia (China) and South Asia (India).Air Pollution, Urban Air Quality, Particulate Matter, Air Quality Modeling, Health Impact Assessment, Loss of Life Expectancy, Damage Costs of Air Pollution

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.Throughout history, technological development and economic growth has led to greater prosperity and overall standard of living for many people in society. However, along with the benefits of economic development comes the social responsibility of minimizing the mortality and morbidity health impacts associated with human activities, safeguarding ecosystems, protecting world cultural heritage and preventing integrity and amenity losses of man-made environments. Effects are often irreversible, extend way beyond national borders and can occur over a long time lag. At current pollutant levels, the monetized impacts carry a significant burden to society, on the order of few percent of a country’s GDP, and upwards to 10% of GDP for countries in transition. A recent study for the European Union found that the aggregate damage burden from industrial air pollution alone costs every man, woman and child between 200 and 330 € a year, of which CO2 emissions contributed 40 to 60% (EEA 2011). In a sustainable world, an assessment of the environmental impacts (and damage costs) imposed by man\\\'s decisions on present and future generations is necessary when addressing the cost effectiveness of local and national policy options that aim at improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for calculating such adverse public health outcomes arising from exposure to routine atmospheric pollutant emissions using a simplified methodology, referred to as the Uniform World Model (UWM). The UWM clearly identifies the most relevant factors of the analysis, is easy to implement and requires only a few key input parameters that are easily obtained by the analyst, even to someone living in a developing country. The UWM is exact in the limit all parameters are uniformly distributed, due to mass conservation. The current approach can be applied to elevated and mobile sources. Its robustness has been validated (typical deviations are well within the ±50% range) by comparison with much more detailed air quality and environmental impact assessment models, such as ISC3, CALPUFF, EMEP and GAINS. Several comparisons illustrating the wide range of applicability of the UWM are presented in the paper, including estimation of mean concentrations at the local, country and continental level and calculation of local and country level intake factors and marginal damage costs of primary particulate matter and inorganic secondary aerosols. Relationships are also provided for computing spatial concentrations profiles and cumulative impact or damage cost distributions. Assessments cover sources located in the USA, Europe, East Asia (China) and South Asia (India)

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.The transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for around one-quarter of current annual emissions. Surface transportation (passenger vehicles, buses, rail, and freight transportation) contributes 75% of total emissions, with the remaining 25% allocated equally between air and water transport. According to the recently released 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC (September 2013), the transportation sector is expected to grow significantly in future years, particularly in rapidly developing countries around the world, and will therefore be one of a few key drivers of increasing global warming. Unless there is a major political effort and consumer willingness to change current energy consumption patterns and travel modes over the next few decades, transport-related emissions are likely to double by 2050 relative to levels observed in 2010. Because of the contribution of transportation to climate change and its impact on urban air quality, a comparative assessment of potential carbon emission reductions and health benefits of reduced particulate matter emissions was undertaken considering several low carbon pathways for development of the urban road transport sector up to 2050. As a result, we conclude that aggressive changes will be needed to scale back future emissions by 20% (or more) compared to present day emissions. These changes will impact vehicle fuel economy (+50%), urban mobility patterns (lower private car demand and greater use of public transportation), choice of alternative fuels (less use of petroleum-based fuels and greater use of biofuels and electrons) and electricity generation mix (greater use of renewables, carbon capture technologies for limiting fossil fuel carbon emissions, and/or nuclear energy). Public acceptance is fundamental to bring about changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour. Given the long lead times required for research, development, demonstration and deployment of new technologies, the time to act is now if we are to limit the global mean surface temperature increase to within 2°C above preindustrial levels

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has achieved its highest levels in the last 800,000 years, and probably even in the last 2.1 million years, recently topping briefly the atmospheric concentration target of 400 ppm. Whereas this mark does not set Earth’s climate in an apocalyptic mode, it does represent a grave global sociopolitical risk, because it highlights the inaction and indifference of government and society to our self-triggered climate changes and their consequences, especially for the poor and the weak. *Since pre-industrial times (i.e. since 1750), atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by over 40%, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and decondarily from net land use change emissions, at a rate unprecedented in the last 22,000 years, reaching an average of 2 ppm/ year in the last decade. About 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean, causing ocean acidification that poses serious risks to marine ecosystems, resources, and services. *Ice core paleoclimate records teach us that, under typical conditions, global surface temperature never changes much in the long term (of centuries) without a corresponding change in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and vice-versa. In order to explain the amount of warming observed in the temperature records, one must take into account the greenhouse effect caused by the corresponding Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in that period. This does not preclude, however, the occurrence of short-term (decadal) climate variability, which can enhance or counteract the prevailing temperature trend (e.g. the current 15-year hiatus in global temperature rise). *In a business as usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the middle of the 21st century would reach just over 500 ppm, a change of 25% above the present value, which would probably lead to an increase of more than 2ºC in the global mean surface temperature On the other hand, reducing emissions by 2% per year starting no later than 2020 would limit the global carbon dioxide concentration to below 450 ppm. Delaying emission cuts will only enhance the risks of dangerous, and potentially irreversible, climatic changes and increase the costs of future mitigation and adaptation measures

Health Impacts and Economic Costs of Air Pollution in the Metropolitan Area of Skopje

Background: Urban outdoor air pollution, especially particulate matter, remains a major environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Despite the documented high levels of pollution in the city, the published evidence on its health impacts is as yet scarce. Methods: we obtained, cleaned, and validated Particulate Matter (PM) concentration data from five air quality monitoring stations in the Skopje metropolitan area, applied relevant concentration-response functions, and evaluated health impacts against two theoretical policy scenarios. We then calculated the burden of disease attributable to PM and calculated the societal cost due to attributable mortality. Results: In 2012, long-term exposure to PM2.5 (49.2 μg/m3) caused an estimated 1199 premature deaths (CI95% 821–1519). The social cost of the predicted premature mortality in 2012 due to air pollution was estimated at between 570 and 1470 million euros. Moreover, PM2.5 was also estimated to be responsible for 547 hospital admissions (CI95% 104–977) from cardiovascular diseases, and 937 admissions (CI95% 937–1869) for respiratory disease that year. Reducing PM2.5 levels to the EU limit (25 μg/m3) could have averted an estimated 45% of PM-attributable mortality, while achieving the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (10 μg/m3) could have averted an estimated 77% of PM-attributable mortality. Both scenarios would also attain significant reductions in attributable respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Conclusions: Besides its health impacts in terms of increased premature mortality and hospitalizations, air pollution entails significant economic costs to the population of Skopje. Reductions in PM2.5 concentrations could provide substantial health and economic gains to the city

400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has achieved its highest levels in the last 800,000 years, and probably even in the last 2.1 million years, recently topping briefly the atmospheric concentration target of 400 ppm. Whereas this mark does not set Earth’s climate in an apocalyptic mode, it does represent a grave global sociopolitical risk, because it highlights the inaction and indifference of government and society to our self-triggered climate changes and their consequences, especially for the poor and the weak. *Since pre-industrial times (i.e. since 1750), atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by over 40%, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and decondarily from net land use change emissions, at a rate unprecedented in the last 22,000 years, reaching an average of 2 ppm/ year in the last decade. About 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean, causing ocean acidification that poses serious risks to marine ecosystems, resources, and services. *Ice core paleoclimate records teach us that, under typical conditions, global surface temperature never changes much in the long term (of centuries) without a corresponding change in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and vice-versa. In order to explain the amount of warming observed in the temperature records, one must take into account the greenhouse effect caused by the corresponding Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in that period. This does not preclude, however, the occurrence of short-term (decadal) climate variability, which can enhance or counteract the prevailing temperature trend (e.g. the current 15-year hiatus in global temperature rise). *In a business as usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the middle of the 21st century would reach just over 500 ppm, a change of 25% above the present value, which would probably lead to an increase of more than 2ºC in the global mean surface temperature On the other hand, reducing emissions by 2% per year starting no later than 2020 would limit the global carbon dioxide concentration to below 450 ppm. Delaying emission cuts will only enhance the risks of dangerous, and potentially irreversible, climatic changes and increase the costs of future mitigation and adaptation measures

Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has achieved its highest levels in the last 800,000 years, and probably even in the last 2.1 million years, recently topping briefly the atmospheric concentration target of 400 ppm. Whereas this mark does not set Earth’s climate in an apocalyptic mode, it does represent a grave global sociopolitical risk, because it highlights the inaction and indifference of government and society to our self-triggered climate changes and their consequences, especially for the poor and the weak. *Since pre-industrial times (i.e. since 1750), atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by over 40%, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and decondarily from net land use change emissions, at a rate unprecedented in the last 22,000 years, reaching an average of 2 ppm/ year in the last decade. About 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean, causing ocean acidification that poses serious risks to marine ecosystems, resources, and services. *Ice core paleoclimate records teach us that, under typical conditions, global surface temperature never changes much in the long term (of centuries) without a corresponding change in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and vice-versa. In order to explain the amount of warming observed in the temperature records, one must take into account the greenhouse effect caused by the corresponding Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in that period. This does not preclude, however, the occurrence of short-term (decadal) climate variability, which can enhance or counteract the prevailing temperature trend (e.g. the current 15-year hiatus in global temperature rise). *In a business as usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the middle of the 21st century would reach just over 500 ppm, a change of 25% above the present value, which would probably lead to an increase of more than 2ºC in the global mean surface temperature On the other hand, reducing emissions by 2% per year starting no later than 2020 would limit the global carbon dioxide concentration to below 450 ppm. Delaying emission cuts will only enhance the risks of dangerous, and potentially irreversible, climatic changes and increase the costs of future mitigation and adaptation measures

Health effects of adopting low greenhouse gas emission diets in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Dietary changes which improve health are also likely to be beneficial for the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). However, previous analyses have not accounted for the potential acceptability of low GHG diets to the general public. This study attempted to quantify the health effects associated with adopting low GHG emission diets in the UK. DESIGN: Epidemiological modelling study. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: UK population. INTERVENTION: Adoption of diets optimised to achieve the WHO nutritional recommendations and reduce GHG emissions while remaining as close as possible to existing dietary patterns. MAIN OUTCOME: Changes in years of life lost due to coronary heart disease, stroke, several cancers and type II diabetes, quantified using life tables. RESULTS: If the average UK dietary intake were optimised to comply with the WHO recommendations, we estimate an incidental reduction of 17% in GHG emissions. Such a dietary pattern would be broadly similar to the current UK average. Our model suggests that it would save almost 7 million years of life lost prematurely in the UK over the next 30 years and increase average life expectancy by over 8 months. Diets that result in additional GHG emission reductions could achieve further net health benefits. For emission reductions greater than 40%, improvements in some health outcomes may decrease and acceptability will diminish. CONCLUSIONS: There are large potential benefits to health from adopting diets with lower associated GHG emissions in the UK. Most of these benefits can be achieved without drastic changes to existing dietary patterns. However, to reduce emissions by more than 40%, major dietary changes that limit both acceptability and the benefits to health are required

LEMUR: Large European Module for solar Ultraviolet Research. European contribution to JAXA's Solar-C mission

Understanding the solar outer atmosphere requires concerted, simultaneous solar observations from the visible to the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) and soft X-rays, at high spatial resolution (between 0.1" and 0.3"), at high temporal resolution (on the order of 10 s, i.e., the time scale of chromospheric dynamics), with a wide temperature coverage (0.01 MK to 20 MK, from the chromosphere to the flaring corona), and the capability of measuring magnetic fields through spectropolarimetry at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Simultaneous spectroscopic measurements sampling the entire temperature range are particularly important. These requirements are fulfilled by the Japanese Solar-C mission (Plan B), composed of a spacecraft in a geosynchronous orbit with a payload providing a significant improvement of imaging and spectropolarimetric capabilities in the UV, visible, and near-infrared with respect to what is available today and foreseen in the near future. The Large European Module for solar Ultraviolet Research (LEMUR), described in this paper, is a large VUV telescope feeding a scientific payload of high-resolution imaging spectrographs and cameras. LEMUR consists of two major components: a VUV solar telescope with a 30 cm diameter mirror and a focal length of 3.6 m, and a focal-plane package composed of VUV spectrometers covering six carefully chosen wavelength ranges between 17 and 127 nm. The LEMUR slit covers 280" on the Sun with 0.14" per pixel sampling. In addition, LEMUR is capable of measuring mass flows velocities (line shifts) down to 2 km/s or better. LEMUR has been proposed to ESA as the European contribution to the Solar C mission.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figures. To appear on Experimental Astronom