Misleading Policy Messages from the Period TFR: Should We Stop Using It?

Public discussions about fertility trends and policies in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is commonly misinterpreted as the "mean number of children per woman" as if it were a cohort measure of fertility. We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretations of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this point with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR (a) inflates the presumed gap between fertility intentions and realised fertility, (b) erroneously suggests a significant fertility increase in many countries of Europe after the year 2000, (c) often exaggerates the level of immigrants' fertility and (d) frequently suggests that family-related policies which led to shorter birth spacing in fact brought an upward swing in fertility level. We argue that there seems to be no policy-relevant question for which the period TFR would be the indicator of choice to be preferred over other existing measures, which range from measures related to future cohort size (total number of births) to sophisticated fertility indexes controlling for age, parity, duration since previous birth and tempo effect. Hence, there is a strong case for stopping the use of the period TFR as a one-fits-all fertility indicator which is now common practice

Asymmetry dependence of proton correlations

A dispersive optical model analysis of p+40Ca and p+48Ca interactions has been carried out. The real and imaginary potentials have been constrained from fits to elastic scattering data, reaction cross sections, and level properties of valence hole states deduced from (e,e'p) data. The surface imaginary potential was found to be larger overall and the gap in this potential on either side of the Fermi energy was found to be smaller for the neutron-rich p+48Ca system. These results imply that protons with energies near the Fermi surface experience larger correlations with increasing asymmetry.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Isospin dependence of nucleon Correlations in ground state nuclei

The dispersive optical model (DOM) as presently implemented can investigate the isospin (nucleon asymmetry) dependence of the Hartree-Fock-like potential relevant for nucleons near the Fermi energy. Data constraints indicate that a Lane-type potential adequately describes its asymmetry dependence. Correlations beyond the mean-field can also be described in this framework, but this requires an extension that treats the non-locality of the Hartree-Fock-like potential properly. The DOM has therefore been extended to properly describe ground-state properties of nuclei as a function of nucleon asymmetry in addition to standard ingredients like elastic nucleon scattering data and level structure. Predictions of nucleon correlations at larger nucleon asymmetries can then be made after data at smaller asymmetries constrain the potentials that represent the nucleon self-energy. A simple extrapolation for Sn isotopes generates predictions for increasing correlations of minority protons with increasing neutron number. Such predictions can be investigated by performing experiments with exotic beams. The predicted neutron properties for the double closed-shell 132Sn nucleus exhibit similar correlations as those in 208Pb. Future relevance of these studies for understanding the properties of all nucleons, including those with high momentum, and the role of three-body forces in nuclei are briefly discussed. Such an implementation will require a proper treatment of the non-locality of the imaginary part of the potentials and a description of high-momentum nucleons as experimentally constrained by the (e,e'p) reactions performed at Jefferson Lab.Comment: 7 pages and 7 figure

Retardation of Particle Evaporation from Excited Nuclear Systems Due to Thermal Expansion

Particle evaporation rates from excited nuclear systems at equilibrium matter density are studied within the Harmonic-Interaction Fermi Gas Model (HIFGM) combined with Weisskopf's detailed balance approach. It is found that thermal expansion of a hot nucleus, as described quantitatively by HIFGM, leads to a significant retardation of particle emission, greatly extending the validity of Weisskopf's approach. The decay of such highly excited nuclei is strongly influenced by surface instabilities

Properties of Umbral Dots as Measured from the New Solar Telescope Data and MHD Simulations

We studied bright umbral dots (UDs) detected in a moderate size sunspot and compared their statistical properties to recent MHD models. The study is based on high resolution data recorded by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and 3D MHD simulations of sunspots. Observed UDs, living longer than 150 s, were detected and tracked in a 46 min long data set, using an automatic detection code. Total 1553 (620) UDs were detected in the photospheric (low chromospheric) data. Our main findings are: i) none of the analyzed UDs is precisely circular, ii) the diameter-intensity relationship only holds in bright umbral areas, and iii) UD velocities are inversely related to their lifetime. While nearly all photospheric UDs can be identified in the low chromospheric images, some small closely spaced UDs appear in the low chromosphere as a single cluster. Slow moving and long living UDs seem to exist in both the low chromosphere and photosphere, while fast moving and short living UDs are mainly detected in the photospheric images. Comparison to the 3D MHD simulations showed that both types of UDs display, on average, very similar statistical characteristics. However, i) the average number of observed UDs per unit area is smaller than that of the model UDs, and ii) on average, the diameter of model UDs is slightly larger than that of observed ones.Comment: Accepted by the AP

Misleading policy messages derived from the period TFR: Should we stop using it?

Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretation of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR (a) inflates the presumed gap between fertility intentions and realised fertility, (b) erroneously suggests a significant fertility increase in many countries of Europe after the year 2000, (c) often exaggerates the level of immigrants fertility and (d) frequently suggests that family-related policies which led to shorter birth spacing in fact brought an upward swing in fertility level. There seems to be no policy-relevant question for which the period TFR would be the indicator of choice to be preferred over other existing measures

Tidal effects and the Proximity decay of nuclei

We examine the decay of the 3.03 MeV state of $^8$Be evaporated from an excited projectile-like fragment following a peripheral heavy-ion collision. The relative energy of the daughter $\alpha$ particles exhibits a dependence on the decay angle of the $^8$Be$^*$, indicative of a tidal effect. Comparison of the measured tidal effect with a purely Coulomb model suggests the influence of a measurable nuclear proximity interaction.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Nonlocal extension of the dispersive-optical-model to describe data below the Fermi energy

Present applications of the dispersive-optical-model analysis are restricted by the use of a local but energy-dependent version of the generalized Hartree-Fock potential. This restriction is lifted by the introduction of a corresponding nonlocal potential without explicit energy dependence. Such a strategy allows for a complete determination of the nucleon propagator below the Fermi energy with access to the expectation value of one-body operators (like the charge density), the one-body density matrix with associated natural orbits, and complete spectral functions for removal strength. The present formulation of the dispersive optical model (DOM) therefore allows the use of elastic electron-scattering data in determining its parameters. Application to ${}^{40}$Ca demonstrates that a fit to the charge radius leads to too much charge near the origin using the conventional assumptions of the functional form of the DOM. A corresponding incomplete description of high-momentum components is identified, suggesting that the DOM formulation must be extended in the future to accommodate such correlations properly. Unlike the local version, the present nonlocal DOM limits the location of the deeply-bound hole states to energies that are consistent with (\textit{e,e}$^{\prime}$\textit{p}) and (\textit{p,2p}) data.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Physical Review