Macroeconomic Instability in the European Monetary System?

This paper analyses the impact of the establishment of the European Monetary System (EMS) on a number of macroeconomic variables, such as exchange rates, money, interest rates and prices for member countries participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). We examine the instability in terms of multiple structural breaks in the variance of the series. To that end, we employ two procedures: the OLS-based tests to detect multiple structural breaks, proposed by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) and several procedures based on Information Criterion joint with the so called sequential procedure suggested by Bai and Perron (2003). Results indicate that there is some evidence of structural breaks in volatility across investigated variables, playing the realignments in the ERM a significant role in the reduction of volatility in some countries and sub-periods. In this sense, the results tend to support the hypothesis that the EMS has contributed to reduce the macroeconomic volatility of the member countries.European Monetary System, multiple structural breaks, volatility

The euro and the volatility of exchange rates

This paper attempts to determine whether or not the introduction of the euro affected the volatility of bilateral exchange rates all over the world. To that end, we examine the exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1993-2007 period. Two econometric methods are implemented for this purpose: the OLS-based tests to detect multiple structural breaks, as proposed by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003), and several procedures based on Information Criterion together with the so-called sequential procedure suggested by Bai and Perron (2003). Although results suggest evidence of structural breaks in volatility across investigated variables, there is high heterogeneity regarding the located dates. Moreover, the realignments in the Exchange Rate Mechanism seem to play a significant role in the reduction of volatility in some European countries and transition economies.Exchange rates, volatility

Volatility in EMU sovereign bond yields: Permanent and transitory components

This paper explores the evolving relationship in the volatility of sovereign yields in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). To that end, we examine the behaviour for daily yields for 11 EMU countries (EMU-11), during the 2001-2010 period. In a first step, we decompose volatility in permanent and transitory components using Engel and Lee (1999)´s component-GARCH model. Results suggest that transitory shifts in debt market sentiment tend to be less important determinants of bond-yield volatility than shocks to the underlying fundamentals. In a second step, we develop a correlation and causality analysis that indicates the existence of two different groups of countries closed linked: core EMU countries and peripheral EMU countries. Finally, in a third step, we make a cluster analysis that further supports our results regarding the existence of two different groups of countries, with different positions regarding the stability of public finance.Este artículo explora la cambiante volatilidad de los rendimientos de la deuda soberana en la Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM). Para ello, se examina el comportamiento de los rendimientos diarios de 11 países de la UEM (UEM-11), durante el período 2001-2010. En un primer paso, descomponemos la volatilidad de los componentes permanentes y transitorios utilizando el modelo GARCH de componentes propuesto por Engel y Lee (1999). Nuestros resultados sugieren que los componentes transitorios, relacionados con la percepción del mercado, tienden a ser menos importantes en la explicación de la volatilidad o riesgo de los bonos que las perturbaciones registradas en las variables macroeconómicas subyacentes. En un segundo paso, se desarrolla un análisis de correlación y causalidad que indica la existencia de dos grupos diferentes de países estrechamente relacionados: los países que conforman el núcleo de la UEM y los países periféricos de la UEM. Por último, en una tercera etapa, se realiza un análisis cluster que respalda nuestros resultados sobre la existencia de dos grupos diferentes de países, con distintas posiciones respecto a la estabilidad de las finanzas públicas.Conditional variance, Component model, Cluster analysis, Sovereign bond yields, Economic and Monetary Union, Varianza condicional, El modelo de componentes, Análisis de conglomerados, Los rendimientos de los bonos soberanos, Unión Económica y Monetaria.

"Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach"

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.Sovereign bond yields, causality, time-varying contagion, euro area, peripheral EMU countries. JEL classification:E44, F36, G15

Export market integration in the European Union

This paper examines the degree and recent evolution (1988-2001) of export-price dispersion among European Union countries. It also explores the effect of exchange rates on exportprice dispersion by reviewing the experience of some European countries that participated in the exchange rate stability zone. The results indicate that export-price dispersion across European Union countries was usually lower than across OECD countries. Moreover, although there is little evidence of convergence, this is stronger across European Union countries. Finally, even though price dispersion was often lower across European Union countries where exchange rates have been relatively stable than across countries with relatively volatile exchange rates, exchange-rate stability has not significantly contributed to export-price convergence across participating countries over the sample period.export market integration, European Union, exchange rates

Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence for the OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyses whether volatility changes in the bilateral and effective real exchange rates of the OECD industrial countries are associated with a specific nominal exchange rate regime. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour during the 1960-2003 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen (1997)'s approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (1993) and Andrews and Ploberger (1994). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility.Exchange rate regimes, real exchange rate, volatility

Volatility in EMU sovereign bond yields: Permanent and transitory components

This paper explores the evolving relationship in the volatility of sovereign yields in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). To that end, we examine the behaviour for daily yields for 11 EMU countries (EMU-11), during the 2001-2010 period. In a first step, we decompose volatility in permanent and transitory components using Engel and Lee (1999)´s component-GARCH model. Results suggest that transitory shifts in debt market sentiment tend to be less important determinants of bond-yield volatility than shocks to the underlying fundamentals. In a second step, we develop a correlation and causality analysis that indicates the existence of two different groups of countries closed linked: core EMU countries and peripheral EMU countries. Finally, in a third step, we make a cluster analysis that further support our results regarding the existence of two different groups of countries, with different positions regarding the stability of public finance.Conditional variance, Component model, Cluster analysis, Sovereign bond yields, Economic and Monetary Union

Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.Nuestra investigación tiene como objetivo analizar las relaciones causales en el comportamiento de la deuda pública emitida por países miembros periféricos de la Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM), con especial énfasis en los recientes episodios de crisis desatados en los mercados de deuda soberana de la zona euro desde 2009. Con este objetivo, empleamos una base de datos de la frecuencia diaria de los rendimientos de los bonos gubernamentales a 10 años emitidos por cinco países de la UEM (Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Portugal y España), que abarca toda la historia de la UEM desde su inicio el 1 de enero de 1999 al 31 diciembre de 2010. En la primera etapa, se explora la relación causal por pares entre los rendimientos, tanto para la muestra completa y para submuestras cambiantes de los datos, con el fin de capturar posible relación causal en función del tiempo. Este enfoque nos permite detectar episodios de contagio entre los rendimientos de los bonos emitidos por países distintos. En el segundo paso, se estudian los factores determinantes de estos episodios de contagio, el análisis del papel desempeñado por diferentes factores, prestando especial atención a los instrumentos que capturan la deuda nacional total (doméstica y extranjera) en cada país.Sovereign bond yields, Causality, Time-varying contagion, Euro area, Peripheral EMU countries, Rendimientos bonos soberanos, Causalidad, Contagio variable en el tiempo, Eurozona, Países periféricos UEM.