Bioenergy and Food Supply: A Spatial-Agent Dynamic Model of Agricultural Land Use for Jiangsu Province in China

In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs to feed the world’s largest population. Prior research has suggested the introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate information to guide local practices. To fill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu’s biomass supply with a contribution above 85%. The sensitivity analyses reveal severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production

Bioenergy and Food Supply: A Spatial-Agent Dynamic Model of Agricultural Land Use for Jiangsu Province in China

In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs to feed the world’s largest population. Prior research has suggested the introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate information to guide local practices. To fill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu’s biomass supply with a contribution above 85%. The sensitivity analyses reveal severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production

A definition of bioeconomy through the bibliometric networks of the scientific literature

The purposes of this paper are to present the different bioeconomy strategies within European Union (the national member states' published bioeconomy strategies are presented), the United States, and China, to construct bibliometric networks of the global scientific literature in order to shape a "visual" definition of bioeconomy, to locate in which aspects of economic activity intervenes (with which terms) and to draw conclusions regarding the primary causes of its appearance, its present form and its future perspectives. Our pursuit is not just to present a "static" bioeconomy, but using the means of bibliometric analysis, to reach more critical conclusions.Alvertos Konstantinis (Technical University of Crete, Greece), Stelios Rozakis (Technical University of Crete, Greece, Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG-PIB), Poland), Efpraxia-Aithra Maria (Technical University of Crete, Greece), Kesheng Shu (Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG-PIB), Poland)Includes bibliographical reference

Policy Impact on Regional Biogas Using a Modular Modeling Tool

Biogas development is expected to contribute to the National Recovery and Resilience plan to overcome the COVID-19 shock. Estimation of the agricultural biogas potential in economic terms can contribute to refining policies inciting effective sector development. In this paper, we attempt to do so by modeling a biogas chain from dedicated crops and livestock waste. This was achieved by coupling farming models to the biogas industry in a partial equilibrium framework. This allows for a comprehensive investigation of alternative measures in technology, size, spatial distribution and land use change. The integrated model was implemented in Lubelskie for the previous policy (green certificates) and the current policy (auction market). In both cases, the bottom-up profit driven optimization resulted in approximately 40 MWel, which shows a robust economic potential more than four times the biogas sector’s actual capacity in the region, also providing the detailed structure of the sector. When focusing on the industry structure, both scenarios give similar results regarding 1–2 MWel plant size close to the observed situation. The model also suggests a large number of new facilities <250 kWel, twice as important under scenario 2, indicating that other conditions beyond economy profitability should be fulfilled for further sector development

Simulation of sorghum introduction and its impacts on land use change-a case study on Lubelski region of Eastern Poland

Summarization: Echoing the bioenergy development initiative in Poland, high expectations are pinned on sweet sorghum usage for biogas plants. In contrast to its high profile in the industry, the research on the introduction and production of sorghum in Poland is lagging behind. To solve this issue, in this paper we have developed a spatial-agent dynamic model of the agricultural land use and applied the model to eastern Poland. The model suggests that the economic and technical potential of sweet sorghum in this region is 6 and 7.5 million tonnes, respectively. Its introduction process largely follows the pattern of a typical industry life cycle, with the startup at the price of 8.20 €/tonne. Along with the market penetration of sorghum, a dramatic land use change of conventional crops can be foreseen, even with a land use competition among those crops. We believe that the exploitation of unutilized agricultural land resources and improving the yield of sorghum are helpful to alleviate this land use conflict. However, a higher food demand in the future and climate change may constrain the role of sorghum. This first comprehensive and high-resolution study to its kind in Poland can help assess the country's bioenergy policies and contribute to the development of the biogas industry.Παρουσιάστηκε στο: Global Change Biology Bioenerg

Spatial Economic Modeling of the Waste-driven Agricultural Biogas in Lubelskie Region, Poland

In this study, we aim to support the evidence-based policy in agricultural biogas production at regional level in Poland. To do so, we set up a decentralized decision framework, simultaneously taking into account the agricultural sector heterogeneity, the biogas technology state-of-the-art and the Polish institutional setting related to renewable energy production. A partial equilibrium model simulates the agricultural and the biogas sector interactions, estimating market clearing prices and quantities at the intersection of supply and demand. The optimal number, size and location of biogas plants are derived at the equilibrium. Considering the case study of Lubelskie region, we tested alternative incentive schemes for agricultural biogas development. Results indicate that limiting the use of energy crops in favour of other substrates, such as livestock, manure and agro-industrial waste, is decisive to preserve biogas profitability under all policy scenarios tested. However, it seems that only with the implementation of the current policy scheme there is a concrete perspective for the biogas industry take-off

Policy impact on regional biogas using a modular modeling tool

Summarization: Biogas development is expected to contribute to the National Recovery and Resilience plan to overcome the COVID-19 shock. Estimation of the agricultural biogas potential in economic terms can contribute to refining policies inciting effective sector development. In this paper, we attempt to do so by modeling a biogas chain from dedicated crops and livestock waste. This was achieved by coupling farming models to the biogas industry in a partial equilibrium framework. This allows for a comprehensive investigation of alternative measures in technology, size, spatial distribution and land use change. The integrated model was implemented in Lubelskie for the previous policy (green certificates) and the current policy (auction market). In both cases, the bottom-up profit driven optimization resulted in approximately 40 MWel, which shows a robust economic potential more than four times the biogas sector’s actual capacity in the region, also providing the detailed structure of the sector. When focusing on the industry structure, both scenarios give similar results regarding 1–2 MWel plant size close to the observed situation. The model also suggests a large number of new facilities <250 kWel, twice as important under scenario 2, indicating that other conditions beyond economy profitability should be fulfilled for further sector development.Presented on: Energie