An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade

The agreement establishing the ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) entered into force in 2010. Full economic impacts of the agreement will not be known until 2020 when 99% of existing tariffs will be phased out in major markets among signatory nations. Using pre-agreement data, this research applies the natural trading partner hypothesis to make an ex-ante assessment of the agreement from New Zealand's perspective. Estimates of key indices show that the results are mixed and the overall welfare gains to New Zealand, if any, are likely to be small.Natural trading partner, ASEAN, New Zealand, Free trade agreement

The impact of comprehensive tariff reductions in multilateral trade: further results from computable general equilibrium simulations

Despite their welfare-improving properties, negotiations on tariff reductions remain a highly contentious issue. Using the GTAP general equilibrium approach, this paper identifies potential winners and losers from partial removal of remaining tariffs in disaggregated sectors. By considering alternative approaches to further liberalising trade in three broadly defined sectors (agriculture, textiles and manufacturing), the paper establishes empirically the clear superiority of a comprehensive trade reform package which encompasses all sectors and geographic regions. Trade negotiators at the currently deadlocked Doha Round should take note of this result as a possible means of breaking the impasse.tariffs, CGE model, Doha Round

A ROAD AHEAD FROM CANCUN? WEIGHING UP SOME GIVE-AND-TAKE SCENARIOS IN A DDA SPIRIT

Given that around 20 percent of the members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are identified as least developed countries (LDC's), global trade negotiations, resumed after the Cancun fiasco of September 2003, must address some major development issues in the spirit of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), if they are to make any headway. This will, predictably, involve some sensible give-and-take not only between the developed countries and the LDC's, but also amongst the LDC's themselves, and between them and other developing countries. Issues of restrictions affecting agricultural trade - a major factor in the failure at Cancun - need re-addressing; but non-agricultural trade issues must also feature in the negotiations as that could make some acceptable policy compromises possible. This paper investigates, in a computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) framework, the welfare impacts on selected developed and developing country groupings of several scenarios of trade liberalisation that are likely to enhance agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows within the LDC's, and between them and other developing countries. The scenarios will involve experimentation with selected commodities that are of special export interest to LDC's to identify some modalities of trade liberalisation and policy reciprocity, that are more likely to be acceptable to all parties.International Relations/Trade,

Examination of New Zealand's Agricultural Sector in Response to Economic Growth and Changing Trade Relations with China

China’s growth performance over the last three decades has stood at a phenomenal nine percent per annum and shows little sign of abating despite challenging market conditions in recent times. With ever increasing demand and limited land availability this is set to have an increasing impact on New Zealand which has a comparative advantage in land-intensive agricultural products. Already this is observable in recent trade statistics. Using GTAP (global trade analysis project), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this research estimates the future effects of Chinese growth to New Zealand’s agricultural sectors and its economy in general. Almost all primary industries in New Zealand can expect to benefit from China’s growth, most notably wool and forestry. Modest gains in gross domestic product and economic welfare also benefit the country on the whole. Chinese growth also complements the well documented gains of the recently signed free trade agreement between the two nations.Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics,

Nonlinear growth effect of remittances in recipient countries: an econometric analysis of remittances-growth nexus in Bangladesh

The macroeconomic impacts of remittances flows on developing economies are not well understood. The paper is an attempt to understand the impact of inward remittances flows on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh during 1974-2006. We find that the growth effect of remittances is negative at first but becomes positive at a later stage- a strong evidence of a non-linear relationship. This could be due to unproductive use of remittances in the beginning followed by more productive utilisation. Remittances positively affect per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh when the complementarity between remittances and financial development is incorporated into the analysis

A risk-benefit approach to the purchase and consumption of conventional vegetables in wet markets

The purchase and consumption of conventional vegetables from wet markets in Vietnam are like two sides of a coin: perceived food safety risks and perceived benefits. Drawing on a sample of 463 Hanoi consumers, this study employed a risk-benefit approach to analyze the purchase intention and consumption frequency of conventional vegetables at traditional markets. A confirmatory factor analysis examined the links among risk perception, perceived utilitarian benefits, perceived hedonic benefits, and trust. Finally, generalized ordered and Poisson regressions were performed on these psychological constructs and their identified links. We found that perceived hedonic benefits, trust in wet market actors, and the presence of homegrown vegetables determined purchase intention and consumption frequency. The joint influence of perceived hedonic and utilitarian benefits on purchase intention implies that consumers considered both benefit dimensions when thinking of their future purchase of conventional vegetables. The significant interaction between perceived risk and perceived hedonic benefits on consumption frequency supports the risk-benefit approach. The effect of perceived hedonic benefits and income on purchase intention and consumption frequency are evidence of wet markets' social and cultural relevance

Nonlinear growth effect of remittances in recipient countries: an econometric analysis of remittances-growth nexus in Bangladesh

The macroeconomic impacts of remittances flows on developing economies are not well understood. The paper is an attempt to understand the impact of inward remittances flows on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh during 1974-2006. We find that the growth effect of remittances is negative at first but becomes positive at a later stage- a strong evidence of a non-linear relationship. This could be due to unproductive use of remittances in the beginning followed by more productive utilisation. Remittances positively affect per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh when the complementarity between remittances and financial development is incorporated into the analysis