Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time

Vacuum fluctuations and the thermodynamics of chiral models

We consider the thermodynamics of chiral models in the mean-field approximation and discuss the relevance of the (frequently omitted) fermion vacuum loop. Within the chiral quark-meson model and its Polyakov loop extended version, we show that the fermion vacuum fluctuations can change the order of the phase transition in the chiral limit and strongly influence physical observables. We compute the temperature-dependent effective potential and baryon number susceptibilities in these models, with and without the vacuum term, and explore the cutoff and the pion mass dependence of the susceptibilities. Finally, in the renormalized model the divergent vacuum contribution is removed using the dimensional regularization.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

A study of changes in fishing effort, abundance, and yield for yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: The rapid growth of the Eastern Pacific fishery for yellowfin and skipjack tuna since the end of World War II has given rise to questions concerning the rational utilization of these resources. As part of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission's program of research designed to investigate these problems, a study was undertaken to determine from the historical records of the fishery the effects of fishing upon the stocks of yellowfin and skipjack tuna of the Eastern Pacific region and to evaluate the present condition of these stocks with respect to the maximum equilibrium yield. SPANISH: EI rápido crecimiento, desde la terminación de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, de la pesquería de atún aleta amarilla y barrilete en el Pacifico Oriental, ha dado lugar a que se hagan algunos comentarios sabre la racional utilización de estos recursos. Como parte del programa de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical designado para la investigación de estos problemas, un estudio fué llevado a cabo para determinar, de los informes historicós de la pesquería, los efectos de la pesca sobre los stocks de atún aleta amarilla y barrilete de la región del Pacifico Oriental y para evaluar la presente condición de estos stocks con respecto al máximo rendimiento de equilibria. (PDF contains 123 pages.

Thermodynamics of (2+1)-flavor QCD: Confronting Models with Lattice Studies

The Polyakov-quark-meson (PQM) model, which combines chiral as well as deconfinement aspects of strongly interacting matter is introduced for three light quark flavors. An analysis of the chiral and deconfinement phase transition of the model and its thermodynamics at finite temperatures is given. Three different forms of the effective Polyakov loop potential are considered. The findings of the (2+1)-flavor model investigations are confronted to corresponding recent QCD lattice simulations of the RBC-Bielefeld, HotQCD and Wuppertal-Budapest collaborations. The influence of the heavier quark masses, which are used in the lattice calculations, is taken into account. In the transition region the bulk thermodynamics of the PQM model agrees well with the lattice data.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables; minor changes, final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Studies of circadian cycles in human subjects during prolonged isolation in a constant environment using 8-channel telemetry systems Memorandum report no. 66-4

Circadian cycles in human subjects during prolonged isolation in constant environment using eight channel telemetry system

Studies of circadian cycles in human subjects during prolonged isolation in a constant environment using eight-channel telemetry systems

Telemetry monitored physiological data of human circadian cycles during prolonged isolatio

Universal deformation rings and tame blocks

Let k be an algebraically closed field of positive characteristic, and let W be the ring of infinite Witt vectors over k. Suppose G is a finite group and B is a block of kG of infinite tame representation type. We find all finitely generated kG-modules V that belong to B and whose endomorphism ring is isomorphic to k and determine the universal deformation ring R(G,V) for each of these modules.Comment: 14 page

Gamma-ray burster recurrence timescales

Three optical transients have been found which are associated with gamma-ray bursters (GRBs). The deduced recurrence timescale for these optical transients (tau sub opt) will depend on the minimum brightness for which a flash would be detected. A detailed analysis using all available data of tau sub opt as a function of E(gamma)/E(opt) is given. For flashes similar to those found in the Harvard archives, the best estimate of tau sub opt is 0.74 years, with a 99% confidence interval from 0.23 years to 4.7 years. It is currently unclear whether the optical transients from GRBs also give rise to gamma-ray events. One way to test this association is to measure the recurrence timescale of gamma-ray events tau sub gamma. A total of 210 gamma-ray error boxes were examined and it was found that the number of observed overlaps is not significantly different from the number expected from chance coincidence. This observation can be used to place limits on tau sub gamma for an assumed luminosity function. It was found that tau sub gamma is approx. 10 yr if bursts are monoenergetic. However, if GRBs have a power law luminosity function with a wide dynamic range, then the limit is tau sub gamma 0.5 yr. Hence, the gamma-ray data do not require tau sub gamma and tau sub opt to be different

Studies of physical, chemical, and biological oceanography in the vicinity of the Revilla Gigedo Islands during the “Island Current Survey” of 1957

ENGLISH: The tendency of the tunas, especially the yellowfin (Neothunnus macropterus) to be more abundant in the near vicinity of islands and seamounts, or "banks", than in the surrounding oceanic areas, is well known to commercial fishermen. This has been confirmed by statistical analysis of fishing vessel logbook records, which demonstrates that the catch-per-day's-fishing is, indeed, higher in the near vicinity of these features. It is hypothesized that islands and seamounts cause changes in the physical circulation or the biochemical cycle resulting in greater supplies of food for tunas in their immediate environs. In order to examine this hypothesis, and in order to study possible mechanisms involved, the "Island Current Survey" was undertaken from 8 May to 12 June, 1957, under the joint auspices of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Surveys of varying nature and extent were made from M/V Spencer F. Baird near Alijos Rocks, Clarion Island, Shimada Bank and Socorro Island (Figure 1). These studies sought to provide knowledge of the action of islands and seamounts in arresting, stalling or deflecting the mean current past them, in establishing convergence and divergence in the surface flow, in producing vertical motion (mixing and upwelling), and in influencing the primary production and the standing crops of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Each survey is discussed below in detail. Observations made at a front on 10 June will be discussed in another paper. SPANISH: Los pescadores que realizan la pesca comercial conocen muy bien la tendencia de los atunes, en particular del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus), de presentarse en mayor abundancia en las cercanías inmediatas a las islas y cimas submarinas, o "bancos", que en las áreas oceánicas circundantes. Este hecho ha sido confirmado par el análisis estadístico de los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora de las embarcaciones pesqueras, demostrándose que la captura par dias de pesca es, en efecto, más abundante en la inmediata proximidad de tales formaciones. Hipotéticamente se admite que las islas y las cimas submarinas provocan cambios en la circulación física o en el ciclo bioquímico, lo cual se pone de manifiesto a través de un mejor abastecimiento de alimento para los atunes en sus cercanías inmediatas. Con la finalidad de verificar esta hipótesis y de estudiar los mecanismos que ella involucra, se realizó la “Island Current Survey” del 8 de mayo al 12 de junio de 1957, bajo los auspicios de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografia. Con el barco Spencer F. Baird se hicieron observaciones de distintas clases y alcances cerca de las Rocas Alijos, la Isla Clarion, el Banco Shimada y la Isla Socorro (Figura 1). Estos estudios tuvieron por objeto adquirir conocimientos sobre la acción que ejercen las islas y cimas submarinas sobre la corriente promedio, ya sea deteniéndola, reduciendo su velocidad o desviando su curso, así como estableciendo convergencia o divergencia en su flujo de superficie, o provocando un movimiento vertical (mezcla y afloramiento) e influyendo en la producción primaria y en las existencias de fitoplancton y zooplancton. Cada operación será tratada a continuación por separado. Las observaciones hechas el dia 10 de junio sobre un frente serán objeto de otra publicación