A prospective analysis of the Brazilian ethanol program - scenarios 2004-2005

Orientador: Andre Tosi FurtadoTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecanicaResumo: O objetivo desta tese consiste em realizar um estudo prospectivo de longo prazo, de 2004 a 2024, sobre o álcool combustível no Brasil. Ao adotar o enfoque prospectivo, o estudo não pretende prever o futuro, mas explicitar quais são as alternativas que se descortinam a partir das escolhas presentes. A tese inicia-se com a apresentação do enfoque prospectivo e da metodologia de construção de cenários. Em seguida essa metodologia é aplicada ao objeto de estudo. A análise prospectiva inicia-se com uma retrospectiva do álcool combustível no Brasil, destacando-se o surgimento, auge e declínio do Proálcool. O estudo segue com a elaboração, por um lado, de um modelo quantitativo, que se propõe explicar a evolução da oferta e demanda do combustível renovável e, por outro, de uma análise qualitativa, que se apóia no envio de questionários e em entrevistas. A partir dessas duas vertentes, procede-se à elaboração de três cenários que definem as principais opções do combustível renovável no país. Os dois primeiros prevêem que, caso a demanda de álcool volte a crescer por conta de um maior dinamismo econômico ou de um aumento das exportações de etanol, provavelmente irá haver, novamente, escassez de álcool no país. Somente no terceiro cenário, que se apóia em um maior grau de intervenção do Estado, com a efetiva criação de condições de expansão sustentável da oferta e ênfase na educação ambiental, ocorrerá um equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda de álcool nos próximos 20 anosAbstract: The main objective of this thesis is to develop a long-term prospective study (2004-2024) for the Brazilian fuel ethanol. Adopting the prospective approach, this study does not intend to foresee the future, but to expose what alternatives are being opened from present choices. First, the thesis presents the prospective approach and the methodology to construct the scenarios. Then, this methodology is applied to the study. The prospective analysis starts with a retrospective of the Brazilian fuel ethanol Program, pointing out the rising, culmination and decline of the Proalcool. The study continues with the elaboration, on one side, of a quantitative model, which aims to explain the supply and demand evolution of the renewable fuel and, on the other, a qualitative analysis supported by questionnaires and interviews. From these two sources, the study continues with the elaboration of three scenarios that define the principal options for the ethanol use in the county. The two first scenarios foresee that, in the event of an increase in the demand of ethanol fuel due to an economic growth or because of exports expansion, there will probably be, one more time, fuel shortage in the country. Only in the third scenario which is based on a more incisive intervention of the State, creating effective conditions for a sustainable supply expansion and emphasizing the education on environmental issues, an equilibrium between ethanol¿s supply and demand will be reached in the next 20 yearsDoutoradoPlanejamento de Sistemas EnergeticosDoutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energético

A competitividade do gas natural no segmento de revestimento ceramico brasileiro

Orientador : Sinclair Mallet-Guy GuerraDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecanicaResumo: A introdução de uma fonte energética no balanço nacional é atraente, principalmente se esta obedecer às premissas político-econômicas do país na qual está sendo inseri da. Nesse contexto, o gás natural detentor de características viáveis para seu uso como combustível industrial, comerciallresidencial e automotivo, somado à baixa emissão de compostos poluentes, apresenta vantagens econômicas e ambientais que o tomam competitivo. No início dos anos noventa, o Governo Federal estabeleceu a meta de aumentar a participação do GN no balanço energético de aproximadamente 3,0% em 1999 - para 12,0% em 2010. Intensificaram-se os esforços para garantir a oferta; tomou-se realidade o gasoduto Bolívia-Brasil, o qual fornecerá até 30 milhões de m3/dia de gás natural a serem distribuídos em cinco estados brasileiros, responsáveis por 82% da produção industrial e 71% do uso energético nacional. O segmento de revestimento cerâmico poderá agregar fatores de competitividade - tecnológicos, setoriais e sistêmicos - com a utilização do gás natural. O Estado juntamente com os órgãos reguladores - responsáveis por formular o conjunto de regras que determinam a exploração e a formação do preço deste recurso natural - devem ter como prioridade a garantia de oferta e preço justo, para o beneficio da sociedade e do paísAbstract: The introduction of an energetic resource in the energy balance is attractive, mainly if this resource obeys the country's political-economical premises. In this context, natural gas has characteristics which allow its use as industrial fuel, commercial and residential use and as automotive fueI. Natural gas presents low emissions of sulphur and carbon, and economic and environmental advantages which make it competitive. In the beginning of the nineties, the Brazilian Govemment established a goal to increase the natural gas share in the energetic balance, ITom 3% in 1999 to 12% in 2010. Efforts were intensified to guarantee its supply; the Bolivia-Brasil Gas Pipe became a reality and will supply up to 30 million m3/day ofnatural gas to be distributed in five Brazilian states, responsible for 82% of the industrial production and 71 % of the country's energetic use. The ceramic tiles industry can aggregate competitive issues to its production - tecnology; quality; price - by using natural gas. Therefore Govemment and Regulatory Agencies - responsible for formulating the set of roles to determine the exploration and commercialization of this natural resource - need to stablish priorities such as supply guarantee and a right price, aiming the social and country' s benefitMestradoMestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energético

Innovation system in the Brazilian sugarcane agroindustry

Presented at the GLOBELICS 6th International Conference 2008 22-24 September, Mexico City, Mexico.Ethanol has been recently of great interest worldwide due to two main reasons. First, it is a viable alternative to oil products, used in light vehicles, which price has been substantially raised in the last years. In second place because ethanol is a renewable source of energy and as such, mitigates the emission of greenhouse gases. Although Brazil is losing its leadership of ethanol production for the United States, it is internationally recognized as the leading country to develop its ethanol production from biomass. Differently from the American system which relies on corn as principal raw material, Brazilian ethanol is produced from sugarcane. The Brazilian route shows up as much more competitive and much less pollution contributor than the American one. The objective of this work is to analyze the leading aspects of the Brazilian Innovation System built around the sugarcane industry. The Brazilian success in terms of sugarcane cannot be understood just as based in a natural comparative advantage, but as a result of accumulation of efforts which ended in a positive trajectory of technological learning, relying, mostly, in incremental innovations. That process had, as inflection point, the ProAlcohol Program, launched after the first oil crisis in 1973. From that Program on, the agro industry started the diffusion of innovations making possible constant increases of productivity and cost reduction on its production. The technological advance brought benefit to both the alcohol and sugar production; Brazil became the world leader sugar producer. This work is based on the approach of national systems of innovation, according to which the innovative performance of a given country, region or even a sector, cannot be learned by focusing on the efforts and performance of the companies alone. Innovation results from the interaction of players from different institutional nature. To analyze the institutional arrangements as the basis to the innovative process, this work will study the Brazilian efforts on R&D, policies and innovation strategies of main players regarding the country’s innovation system in the sugarcane sector, including sugar and ethanol mills, industrial goods suppliers, public and private research institutions and governmental agencies. Given the need to intensify the productive and technological effort to meet the new perspectives of expansion for ethanol production, important changes are to be done in the existing institutional arrangement, where the State needs to have a more active position. This need is being manifested with more clarity recently, given the possibility of launching a new ethanol program. It is also stated the need for the sugarcane sector to make a technological and productive leap, calling the attention for a bigger engagement of the public players for financing and coordinating the innovation efforts for the sector

The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system

Ethanol has recently been of great interest worldwide because it is a viable economic alternative to petroleum products and it is a renewable source of energy that mitigates the emission of greenhouse gases. Brazilian bioethanol from sugarcane is the most successful case at the world level because of its low cost and low level of greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil's success with sugarcane cannot be understood as based solely on a natural comparative advantage, but as a result of efforts that culminated in a positive trajectory of technological learning, relying mostly on incremental innovations. The purpose of this article is to analyze the key aspects of the innovation system built around the Brazilian sugarcane industry. It is based on the national innovation systems approach according to which innovation results from the interaction of different institutional actors. Institutional arrangements are analyzed as the basis for the innovative process, in particular R&D and the innovation policies and strategies of the main players in the sugarcane sector, including sugar and ethanol mills, industrial goods suppliers, public and private research institutions, and governmental agencies.Ethanol Innovation Renewable energy