Behind at the Starting Line: Poverty Among Hispanic Infants

In this brief, authors Daniel Lichter, Scott Sanders, and Kenneth Johnson examine the economic circumstances of Hispanic infants using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey annual microdata files from 2006 through 2010. They report that a disproportionate share of Hispanic infants start life’s race behind the starting line, poor and disadvantaged—an important finding because the proportion of all U.S. births that are Hispanic is growing rapidly. The poverty risk is especially high among rural Hispanic infants and those in new destinations. Despite higher poverty risks, Hispanic infants receive less governmental assistance. High Hispanic infant poverty has immediate and long-term consequences for infants and the nation. Failing to invest in families and children now has long-term consequences because early childhood poverty tends to set into motion a series of lifecycle disadvantages (such as insufficient parenting, bad neighborhoods, underfunded schools, and poor health care) that greatly increases the likelihood of poverty in adulthood. The authors conclude that whether today’s Hispanic children will assimilate into America’s economic mainstream is an open question, but the Hispanic infants who will help reshape America’s future require public policy attention now

THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS

The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided.bullish consensus, contrary opinion, market sentiment, Marketing,

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?

The objective of this report is to re-visit the “adequacy of speculation” debate in agricultural futures markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Traditional speculative measures do not show any material changes or shifts over the sample period. In most markets, the increase in long speculative positions was equaled or surpassed by an increase in short hedging. So, even after adjusting speculative indices for index fund positions, values are within the historical ranges reported in prior research. One implication is that long-only index funds may be beneficial in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging. Attempts to curb speculation through regulatory means should be weighed carefully against the potential benefits provided by this class of speculators.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence

Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular, include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in commodity inflation. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated— would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the agricultural and food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The results suggest that index fund positions across futures markets have no impact on relative price changes across those markets. The empirical results provide no evidence that long-only index funds impact commodity futures prices.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Absolute absorption and fluorescence measurements over a dynamic range of 106^6 with cavity-enhanced laser-induced fluorescence

We describe a novel experimental setup that combines the advantages of both laser-induced fluorescence and cavity ring-down techniques. The simultaneous and correlated measurement of the ring-down and fluorescence signals yields absolute absorption coefficients for the fluorescence measurement. The combined measurement is conducted with the same sample in a single, pulsed laser beam. The fluorescence measurement extends the dynamic range of a stand-alone cavity ring-down setup from typically three to at least six orders of magnitude. The presence of the cavity improves the quality of the signal, in particular the signal-to-noise ratio. The methodology, dubbed cavity-enhanced laser-induced fluorescence (CELIF), is developed and rigorously tested against the spectroscopy of 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene in a molecular beam and density measurements in a cell. We outline how the method can be utilised to determine absolute quantities: absorption cross sections, sample densities and fluorescence quantum yields.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, submitted to J. Chem. Phy

Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders

The forecasting ability of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment’s of Traders data set is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) market returns. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, non-commercial traders display a tendency for trend-following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating that those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support the use of the Commitment’s of Traders data in predicting market movements.Commitment’s of Traders, futures markets, forecasting, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets

The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures markets. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, noncommercial traders display a tendency for trend following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support use of the COT data in predicting price movements in agricultural futures markets.agricultural futures markets, commitments of traders, forecasting, prices, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance,

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets:Too Much of a Good Thing?

Long-only commodity index funds have been blamed by other futures market participants for inflating commodity prices, increasing market volatility, and distorting historical price relationships. Much of this criticism is leveled without any formal empirical support or even cursory data analyses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment’s of Traders report. In this research, we make an initial assessment of the size and activity of index funds in traditional agricultural futures markets. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Speculative measures—such as Working’s T—suggest that long-only funds may provide a benefit in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance,

Oxygen Isotopic Constraints on the Number and Origin of Basaltic Achondrite Parent Bodies

Our data show that HED meteorites have a homogeneous oxygen isotopic composition consistent with a magma ocean on Vesta. Ibitira, Asuka 881394, Pasamonte, and NWA 1240 probably come from separate parent asteroids