Investment and Q in Spanish manufacturing firms

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Unemployment and Consumption: Are Job Losses Less Painful near the Mediterranean?

In this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and consumption. We study this relationship with panel data on households in five countries: Spain and Italy (the South), and Germany, Britain, and the US (the North). Our empirical results indicate that an increase in the duration of unemployment spells of male household heads is associated with smaller consumption losses in Spanish and Italian households. We discuss this finding in the light of different market and institutional frameworks. Given that the coverage and generosity of social welfare institutions are both higher in the North, and that credit and insurance markets are also more developed in the North than in the South, existing theories of consumption indicate that in the South consumption should fall more than in the North when the male household head becomes unemployed. This and other evidence supports the hypothesis that extended family networks, which appear to be stronger near the Mediterranean, provide a fundamental source of insurance against unemployment in southern Europe.Consumption, savings, unemployment

Explaining movements in the labor share

In this paper we study the evolution of the labor share in the OECD since 1970. We show it is essentially related to the capital-output ratio; that this relationship is shifted by factors like the price of imported materials or the skill mix; and that discrepancies between the marginal product of labor and the real wage (due to, e.g., product market power, union bargaining, and labor adjustment costs) cause departures from it. We provide estimates of the model with panel data on 14 industries and 14 countries for 1973-93 and use them to compute the evolution of the wage gap in Germany and the US.Labor share, capital-output ratio

Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?

In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model to compute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reforms that increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.EMU, monetary union, labor market institutions, monetary policy, labor market reform, eurosclerosis, political economy, unemployment

Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain

The Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995?2006: Unemployment has fallen by 15 percentage points, with roughly constant inflation. This change has been much more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in Spain over this period. We show that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is shifted by immigration if natives? and immigrants? labor supply elasticities and bargaining power differ. Estimation of this curve for Spain indicates that the fall in unemployment since 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by immigration.Publicad

Reforming an Insider-Outsider Labor Market: The Spanish Experience

This paper presents a case study on reforming a very dysfunctional labor market with a deep insider-outsider divide, namely the Spanish case. We show how a dual market, with permanent and temporary employees makes real reform much harder, and leads to purely marginal changes that do not alter the fundamental features of labor market institutions. While the Great Recession and the start of the sovereign debt crisis triggered two labor reforms, the political economy equilibrium has not allowed them to be transformational enough.temporary contracts, dualism, labor market reform, political economy, Great Recession

Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain

The Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995-2006: unemployment has fallen by 15 percentage points, with roughly constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in Spain over this period. We show that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is shifted by immigration if natives’ and immigrants’ labor supply or bargaining power differ. Estimation of the curve for Spain indicates that the fall in unemployment since 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by immigration.Phillips curve, immigration

Job Insecurity and Children's Emancipation

The age at which children leave the parental home differs considerably across countries. We present a theoretical model predicting that higher job security of parents and lower job security of children may delay emancipation. We then provide aggregate evidence which supports this hypothesis for 12 European countries. We also give microeconometric evidence for Italy, the single country for which we have access to household-specific information on job security and coresidence. It is a very interesting case to study since, in the late 1990s, approximately 75 per cent of young Italians aged 18 to 35 were living at home and they had only a 4 per cent probability of emancipation in the subsequent 3 years. We show that this probability would have increased by 4 to 10 percentage points if their fathers had gone from having a fully secure job to becoming unemployed for sure.emancipation, job security, option value

Job Insecurity and Youth Emancipation: A Theoretical Approach

In this paper, we propose a theoretical model to study the effect of income insecurity of parents and offspring on the child's residential choice. Parents are partially altruistic toward their children and will provide financial help to an independent child when her income is low relative to the parents'. We show that first-order stochastic dominance (FOSD) shifts in the distribution of the child's future income (or her parents') will have ambiguous effects on the child's residential choice. The analysis identifies altruism as the source of ambiguity in the results. If parents are selfish or the joint income distribution of parents and child places no mass on the region where transfers are provided, a FOSD shift in the distribution of the child's (parents') future income will reduce (raise) the child's current income threshold for independenceAltruism; Emancipation; Job security; Option value

What affects the employment rate intensity of growth?

En este trabajo se analiza la relacion entre el crecimiento economico y la tasa de empleo (es decir, la proporcion empleada de la poblacion en edad de trabajar). Se halla, en una muestra de once paises de la OCDE durante los ultimos 30 años, que dicha relacion difiere de forma significativa entre paises. Las elasticidades mas altas de la tasa de empleo con respecto al crecimiento se encuentran en Estados Unidos, Canada y el Reino Unido, y las mas bajas, en Japon y Austria. Tambien se obtiene que esta elasticidad viene afectada por factores estructurales e institucionales, como la participacion de la agricultura en el producto total, el nivel de los costes de despido, los grados de coordinacion intersindical e interempresarial, y el porcentaje de asalariados en empresas grandes. Contiene graficos, cuadros estadisticos y bibliografia. (ars) (sbc) (igg