Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990

This paper investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner’s Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1950-1990. Recent advances in time series analysis have permitted the investigation of the long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP in terms of cointegration analysis. In the case of Wagner’s Law, evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long-run relationship between public expenditure and income. However, to support Wagner’s Law would require unidirectional causality from income to public expenditure. Therefore cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner’s Law, but not sufficient. Hence, conditional on cointegration results, it is necessary to look at the causality properties of the model(s). Using the Engle and Granger cointegration test, the Granger Causality test and Turkish time series aggregate data for the period 1950-1990, we find no empirical support for Wagner’s Law.Wagner's Law; Public Expenditure Growth; Unit Root Test; Cointegration Analysis; Causality

Role of the state in developing countries: public choice versus Schumpeterian approach

It is obvious that even though modern public choice theories, which were first developed for Western pluralistic societies (society-centred), might have highlighted many hidden subjects in developing countries such as rent-seeking, corruption, strong state tradition, undemocratic decision mechanisms, etc, however, they still cannot hold and explain all the dynamics of these countries since they need to adopt a state-centre approach. In that sense, we propose that the Schumpeterian approach can help us in understanding the dynamics of developing countries even better. Therefore, our main objective in this paper is to provide a synthesis of public choice approach and the Schumpeterian approach to understand the role of the state in developing countries. We know the fact that this study still remains incomplete and not enough to cover all the needs of the subject, but at least it highlights some hidden issues for developing countries and starts a new discussion on this path

Property rights issue and rent seeking in Turkey: A time series study with cointegration and error correction techniques for the period of 1960-2002

The property rights issue is one of the most important institutional differences between democratically developed and developing countries. In most of the cases, the violation of the property rights results with rent-seeking activities. In this chapter, Katz and Rosenberg's budgetary variable model has been tested in a time series study for the period of 1960 to 2002 to measure rent-seeking activities in Turkey. It is found that there is a cointegrating relationship exists between variables, by which mean that there is a long-run relationship between budgetary rent-seeking (Rt), GNP per capita (GNPCt) and Government Size (GYt). It is also found that independent variables help to explain rent-seeking activities in Turkey during the period 1960-2002. In addition to these cointegrated relationships, it is showed that adjustments are made towards restoring the long-run relationship between rent-seeking and other variables

Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law: The Case of Turkey, 1950-1990.

This paper investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner’s Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1950-1990. Recent advances in time series analysis have permitted the investigation of the long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP in terms of cointegration analysis. In the case of Wagner’s Law, evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long-run relationship between public expenditure and income. However, to support Wagner’s Law would require unidirectional causality from income to public expenditure. Therefore cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner’s Law, but not sufficient. Hence, conditional on cointegration results, it is necessary to look at the causality properties of the model(s). Using the Engle and Granger cointegration test, the Granger Causality test and Turkish time series aggregate data for the period 1950-1990, we find no empirical support for Wagner’s Law

The growth of public expenditure in Turkey, 1950-1990 (macro-models)

This thesis investigates statistically the existence of a long-run relationship between public expenditure and GNP (Wagner's Law) using data for Turkey over the period 1950-1990 and examines whether there is a structural break in the public expenditure series as a result of the 1974 Cyprus War (Peacock and Wiseman's Displacement Effect Hypothesis).;In the public finance literature several models have been used to explain public expenditure growth. For example, macro models such as Wagner's Law, Peacock and Wiseman's displacement effect hypothesis, and microeconomic (or decision process) models of public choice.;This thesis concentrates on macro models. These models try to explain the time pattern of public expenditures relative to broad aggregate variables such as GNP. In terms of macro models, the most prominent empirical generalisations about public expenditure growth are Wagner's Law and the Displacement Effect Hypothesis.;Recent developments in time series analysis, such as cointegration analysis, investigate long-run relationships between variables, which allow us to apply news tests to Wagner's Law. Using the Eagle and Granger cointegration test and Turkish time series aggregate data for the period 1950-1990, we find no empirical support for Wagner's Law. Recent advances in times series analysis allow us to test for the existence of a structural break in the series for public expenditure arising from the 1974 Cyprus War. The results do not support the existence of a displacement effect hypothesis due to the Cyprus War.;Using disaggregated data (public expenditure by economic and functional categories), Engle-Granger cointegration and causality test results provide some evidence in favour of Wagner's Law.;Finally, a synthetic approach encompassing various theories of public expenditure growth (e.g. Wagner's Law, displacement effect hypothesis, demographic variables, relative prices and some dummy variables for country specific conditions) has been used to model public expenditure growth. The results provide some new evidence for Turkey