Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

Educational difference in the prevalence of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women: a study in northern Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Osteoporosis is the most common metabolic bone disease in the world and it is rapidly increasing in Iran. In this study the relationship between educational levels and osteoporosis was investigated among Iranian postmenopausal women.</p> <p>Method and subjects</p> <p>Seven hundred and six women aged 50-75 years old were randomly recruited from urban (<it>n </it>= 440) and rural (<it>n </it>= 266) areas in Guilan. Osteoporosis was diagnosed by quantitative ultrasound technique and dual X-ray absorptiometry. Serum 25(OH) D3, body weight and height were measured in all subjects. Other data including age, educational level, menopause age, medications and history of illness were also collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that the prevalence of osteoporosis was significantly greater among women with low educational level than women with high educational status (18.0% vs 3.8% <it>P </it>< 0.0001). However, women with low educational level had higher mean serum level of vitamin D than women with high educational level. Osteoporosis was significantly more prevalent among women living in rural areas than women living in urban areas (19.1% v.s 13.3%, <it>P </it>< 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that educational level is associated with bone health in this population of postmenopausal women with significantly higher osteoporosis found in lower social groups. Therefore, we suggest that women with low social level should be carefully evaluated for signs of osteoporosis during routine physical examinations.</p

Congenital Cytomegalovirus Mortality in the United States, 1990–2006

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a member of the herpes family of viruses, which is transmitted by sexual and non-sexual contact. Human CMV causes a wide variety of infection and illness in healthy adults, in those with compromised immune systems (such as AIDS), in those with cardiovascular disease, and in pregnant women who can pass the infection to their unborn child (congenital CMV). Treatment options for congenital CMV are limited and no effective vaccine to protect against CMV currently exists. Previous studies have demonstrated that African Americans and Mexican Americans are at an increased risk for congenital CMV infections. In this study, the authors examined death certificate data of US Residents from 1990–2006 in which congenital CMV was listed as one of the diagnoses at death. The analysis demonstrated that there is a significant burden of congenital CMV deaths in infants (<1 year old) with African Americans and Native Americans overrepresented. This study helps quantify congenital CMV deaths among US residents and adds further support to the importance of funding CMV vaccine research

Linear MIM-Width of Trees

We provide an $O(n \log n)$ algorithm computing the linear maximum induced matching width of a tree and an optimal layout.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, full version of WG19 paper of same nam

Anomaly Equations and Intersection Theory

Six-dimensional supergravity theories with N=(1,0) supersymmetry must satisfy anomaly equations. These equations come from demanding the cancellation of gravitational, gauge and mixed anomalies. The anomaly equations have implications for the geometrical data of Calabi-Yau threefolds, since F-theory compactified on an elliptically fibered Calabi-Yau threefold with a section generates a consistent six-dimensional N=(1,0) supergravity theory. In this paper, we show that the anomaly equations can be summarized by three intersection theory identities. In the process we also identify the geometric counterpart of the anomaly coefficients---in particular, those of the abelian gauge groups---that govern the low-energy dynamics of the theory. We discuss the results in the context of investigating string universality in six dimensions.Comment: 29 pages + appendices, 8 figures; v2: minor corrections, references added; v3: minor corrections, reference adde

What we talk about when we talk about "global mindset": managerial cognition in multinational corporations

Recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers, giving rise to a number of concepts such as “global mindset” that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct. We identify common themes across writers, suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives: cultural, strategic, and multidimensional. We also identify two constructs from the social sciences that underlie the perspectives found in the literature: cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity and use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset. We then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

A Gammaherpesviral Internal Repeat Contributes to Latency Amplification

BACKGROUND: Gammaherpesviruses cause important infections of humans, in particular in immunocompromised patients. The genomes of gammaherpesviruses contain variable numbers of internal repeats whose precise role for in vivo pathogenesis is not well understood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used infection of laboratory mice with murine gammaherpesvirus 68 (MHV-68) to explore the biological role of the 40 bp internal repeat of MHV-68. We constructed several mutant viruses partially or completely lacking this repeat. Both in vitro and in vivo, the loss of the repeat did not substantially affect lytic replication of the mutant viruses. However, the extent of splenomegaly, which is associated with the establishment of latency, and the number of ex vivo reactivating and genome positive splenocytes were reduced. Since the 40 bp repeat is part of the hypothetical open reading frame (ORF) M6, it might function as part of M6 or as an independent structure. To differentiate between these two possibilities, we constructed an N-terminal M6STOP mutant, leaving the repeat structure intact but rendering ORF M6 unfunctional. Disruption of ORF M6 did neither affect lytic nor latent infection. In contrast to the situation in lytically infected NIH3T3 cells, the expression of the latency-associated genes K3 and ORF72 was reduced in the latently infected murine B cell line Ag8 in the absence of the 40 bp repeat. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data suggest that the 40 bp repeat contributes to latency amplification and might be involved in the regulation of viral gene expression

Nicotine in floral nectar pharmacologically influences bumblebee learning of floral features

D.B. was supported by a Marie Curie Intra European Fellowship. L.C. is supported by an ERC Advanced Grant and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award